Would WW2 have been prevented if the Munich meeting failed

Would Hitler have become pacified if Munich failed?

  • Yes

    Votes: 9 14.8%
  • No

    Votes: 52 85.2%

  • Total voters
    61
Say there is no munich agreement and Hitler did not get the OK to occupy the Sudetenland.

Would Hitler have been less aggressive if this happened? Would WW2 have been prevented?
 
If the british government had been more belligerent in 1938, so would have been the french. That way, Hitler does not get the carte blanche to invade Czechoslovakia, which builds up its defenses for a hypothetical future second attempt by Hitler to press on them. Maybe Hitler, in a fit of overconfidence, still tries to declare war and invade despite anglo-french protests (which puts me in the "no" camp in your "pacified Hitler" poll), but then he'd be quickly deposed by the Oster Conspiracy.
With no czech tanks or gold in the german army, Germany does not get the confidence nor initiative to invade Poland. Therefore, no WWII. But that's mostly a semantic issue, since a war between Germany and a Franco-Czechoslovak alliance could be interpreted by some as a continuation of WWI.
 
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I'm going to say it delays WWII, not derails it. Until Hitler dies, he will continue to work towards a war in the East. When Hitler dies will determine when and if the war breaks out, if he is assassinated or executed early, WWII will be delayed. If late in his life, then there is more time for the Nazi idealogy to set in and work. Someone will be his successor, and the war will occur still.
 
I'm going to say it delays WWII, not derails it. Until Hitler dies, he will continue to work towards a war in the East. When Hitler dies will determine when and if the war breaks out, if he is assassinated or executed early, WWII will be delayed. If late in his life, then there is more time for the Nazi idealogy to set in and work. Someone will be his successor, and the war will occur still.
IIRC, the one most likely to succeed Hitler at such time (if one guy takes the helm rather than a cabal of nazi officials) would be Hermann Göring, who disagreed with Hitler's "all-out war" idea in the period between 1938 and 1939. He preferred a plan for a central european economic union dominated by Germany, and economic puppetization of Poland (through measures such as annexing Danzig) rather than lebensraum.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Well. I would vote : YES ... though my interpretation of a "pacified Hitler" might be different.

As @GauchoBadger had already mentioned : the September - or as its mostly called in english sources - Oster-conspiracy would have eventually "pacified" Hitler in the sense of R.I.P. (rest in "peace").

But contrary to @Oldbill I believe, that the further history might change substantially. The german generals would not allow any Nazi big-whig (including Göring) to play a mayor if any role at all, what would mean : end of Nazi at all.

What might happen with a military lead regime ... very open end and if still a WW 2 happens : veery different from OTL.
 
I believe that if Munich failed, it would simply have delayed the war a few years. There are really only 2 ways to pacify Hitler. 1) give him total control of the world, or 2) put a bullet in his head
 
Quite the opposite. No Munich agreement means Germany would invade Czechoslovakia in 1938, kicking off WW2 early. The orders had been given and the invasion was called off because of the agreement, Hitler was initially enraged by the lack of a war, it was only when he discovered the effects of the agreement that he was mollified. There is no way to "pacify" Hitler. The only way the lack of a Munich agreement might no have lead to war is if there was a coup by the German military, vague plans apparently existed.

As far as I can see the debate about Munich is whether 1) Britain and France were morally right to refuse to fight Germany over a German-Czech border that roughly reflected nationality rather than economics or strategic considerations, and 2) whether they were in a better position to go to war in 1939 than 1938. Avoiding WW2 would have needed different policies before 1938.
 
The Oster conspiracy is overblown. Some historians have portrayed it as a sure thing but it would really be a crazy roll of the dice and all the odds were against its success, particularly if war had just been declared, an act that was more likely to rally soldiers more closely behind Hitler. Halder, who found himself in charge of the coup attempt after Beck was ousted, quickly cancelled the attempt once the Munich agreement was announced but had he proceeded his chances of success were, by his own estimation, low.
 
The Oster conspiracy is overblown. Some historians have portrayed it as a sure thing but it would really be a crazy roll of the dice and all the odds were against its success, particularly if war had just been declared, an act that was more likely to rally soldiers more closely behind Hitler. Halder, who found himself in charge of the coup attempt after Beck was ousted, quickly cancelled the attempt once the Munich agreement was announced but had he proceeded his chances of success were, by his own estimation, low.

Completely agree- it’s an offshoot of the ‘clean Wehrmacht’ myth to overestimate the support the Oster group would have had.
 
The german generals would not allow any Nazi big-whig (including Göring) to play a mayor if any role at all, what would mean : end of Nazi at all.

Why not? Goering was a former officer, and had been the successor to the squadron of Baron Von Richtofen. And by no means all generals were anti-Nazi. He was someone they could live with.
 

Deleted member 1487

It would mean war. Potentially a serious coup attempt.
 
After having started rearmament, the German economy was sitting on a time bomb.
They could afford to overspend only in prevision of an inflow of external resources, so if they do not go to war, they have to stop and I'm not even sure it's possible without crashing at this point.

So, it's either war or sensible people back to the helm. I don't see the latter too likely, since it would also cause a return to the Weimar penury, from which the Nazis supposedly saved the German people.
 

Deleted member 1487

After having started rearmament, the German economy was sitting on a time bomb.
They could afford to overspend only in prevision of an inflow of external resources, so if they do not go to war, they have to stop and I'm not even sure it's possible without crashing at this point.

So, it's either war or sensible people back to the helm. I don't see the latter too likely, since it would also cause a return to the Weimar penury, from which the Nazis supposedly saved the German people.
It was possible to stop, they'd just have to ease off to avoid mass unemployment. If they spent to the point of utter bankruptcy then they'd have problems during the transition to the export economy, but it would be survivable, as Germany did have any number of willing export partners, including the USSR once Germany made the offer.
 
Well after playing hearts of iron 3 several times I'm to the conclusion the AI in the game wants war. So if no agreement then there would be war and then Czechoslovakia Poland,France and Britain curb stomps Germany. Germany would lose and 30 or so million wouldn't die in the end.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Well after playing hearts of iron 3 several times I'm to the conclusion the AI in the game wants war. So if no agreement then there would be war and then Czechoslovakia Poland,France and Britain curb stomps Germany. Germany would lose and 30 or so million wouldn't die in the end.
... really a historical true and important authority to be followed ...
 
A rough timeframe I believe would play out would be war breaking out within a few months at most between Germany and Czechoslovakia. The Sudeten war as I will call it for at least this post drags the French Republic but I feel Chamberlin will pretend to be neutral but certainly there would be a state of some hostilities. Possibly Mussolini could bring Italy into the war however just because the Pact of Steel is in place, I believe Italy could join the anti-German alliance though neutrality is the most likely. However long this takes I foresee Germany being defeated due to the obvious absence of their later Czech resources but I also see a strong Czech resistance within the mountains despite the likely heavy presence of Sudeten militias. This allows for the French to lead a successful but bloody campaign to control all territory at least up until the Rhine. Ultimately Hitler's Reich is defeated.

Post war, the Treaty of Munich is signed of which would see the restoration of Austria with maybe an expanded border into what is Bavaria. Some small concessions to C.S. in terms of land more to ensure a greater defensive band around the mountain range. Finally the creation of a heavily French backed Rhineish Republic minus the Saarland of which is annexed into France. There could well be a mass if not total expulsion of Germans from C.S. with the possibly exception of those who were proven to be loyal if there is any.

The rest of the 40's could see a rise in anti-Soviet activity though whether or not there would be war I cannot say. By the time of the 60's there would likely be another war with Germany assuming another radical reaction of whatever form. I think a neutral Italy would eventually cosy up with Paris allowing for Mussolini to generally have a wider support. I can't see much beyond that apart from a continued long term colonial network. There would definitely be some form of colonial linked empires in the atl present assuming there isn't a massive blow to such in the eyes of the wider public at least for a long while after.
 
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