Would we know who TR was if McK hadn't been shot?

That is one of the biggest butterfly points of the twentieth century. It is questionable whether TR could have been elected president had he not assumed the office by succession and elected as an incumbent. The Panama Canal, workplace reform, antitrust action; all would be changed or delayed. In an OTL field, it is hard to imagine Teddy being president on his own. But in a different America, he could have made it after 1912.
 
I'll disagree. In 1900, even as a vice-presidential candidate, TR overshadowed McKinley to no small extent (there's another thread where I posted a cartoon from 1900 to that effect). Moreover, within months, if not weeks, after assuming the vice presidency, a "TR in 1904" boom started. Had McKinley not been shot, I contend that, given what already existed in support for TR, plus the tenor of the times, he would have been all but a lock for the GOP nomination in 1904--with a conservative running mate like Fairbanks, to be sure--and an odds-on favorite to win the election.

What this really butterflies away is a Taft presidency: I could somehow see Taft refusing a Supreme Court appointment in 1902 when a seat became vacant, but not when another came open in 1903 (the seat to which Holmes was appointed, IIRC). Thus, Taft comes home from the Phillippines, takes his seat on the Supreme Court, and is not within bounds for consideration for the presidency in 1912.

Who might have been the GOP nominee in 1912? Tough call. Not sure that Hughes would have been in a position to be nominated, and Root would likely have pleaded his health (he did so in '08 in OTL). Lodge's appeal was purely regional. I'm guessing MO governor Herbert Hadley, with possibly IN senator Albert Beveridge as a running mate, in a thoroughly progressive ticket.
 
If TR begins his presidency in 1904, there's also still the possibility of him running for a third term in 1912.
 
I'll disagree. In 1900, even as a vice-presidential candidate, TR overshadowed McKinley to no small extent (there's another thread where I posted a cartoon from 1900 to that effect). Moreover, within months, if not weeks, after assuming the vice presidency, a "TR in 1904" boom started. Had McKinley not been shot, I contend that, given what already existed in support for TR, plus the tenor of the times, he would have been all but a lock for the GOP nomination in 1904--with a conservative running mate like Fairbanks, to be sure--and an odds-on favorite to win the election.

I think this is a fair possibility. Even AH'ers forget just how monumentally rock-star popular he was...and also how much that scared the Republican establishment, some of whom were afraid he'd become an American Caesar if elected. IIRC the OTL VP slot was a bid to try and contain him.

And since the Repub candidates were chosen primarily via convention at this point (few to no primaries at this point, AFAIK) it'll take a huge and undeniable grass roots power to push the Repubs into accepting such a move.

So I can really see it go either way. Certainly he'll be right in the center of the spotlight the whole time. Knowing TR he won't hesitate to gather that grassroots and try to force the Repub's hands, though this could easily backfire. He might also try a third party bid...and might actually have a chance at it!
 

tqm111

Banned
That is one of the biggest butterfly points of the twentieth century. It is questionable whether TR could have been elected president had he not assumed the office by succession and elected as an incumbent. The Panama Canal, workplace reform, antitrust action; all would be changed or delayed. In an OTL field, it is hard to imagine Teddy being president on his own. But in a different America, he could have made it after 1912.

You're right about it being a huge butterfly point. This is a very interesting discussion point.

It was my understanding that TR was parked in the VP slot as a dead end to give him something to keep him from making trouble. To me it feels like he would have been locked out of the nomination if he ran in 1904.
 
Roosevelt would never have gotten the Republican nomination if McKinley hadn't been killed. There's no way the party of J.P. Morgan would nominate a trustbuster in the absence of one already being in office.
 
In theory, he could've run on his own. 1904 would've been a reasonably good time to do so, assuming the GOP nominates a conservative like Fairbanks and the Dems still nominate the conservative Alton B. Parker.
 
Khan and tqm have it right: TR was railroaded into the second slot in a ploy engineered in no small part by OH senator Mark Hanna in an attempt to sidetrack him permanently, since the last sitting vice president to gain the nomination (at that time) was Van Buren, in 1836. However, as alluded to, TR's fame and popularity were enormous, and as (I believe) Edmund Morris and H. W. Brand mention in their biographies, the boom for 1904 was already under way when TR succeeded McKinley upon the latter's death. Thus, I stand by my assertions that (1) TR would have become president anyhow, and (2) he'd be every bit as well known in the non-assassination TL as he is in OTL.
 
Khan and tqm have it right: TR was railroaded into the second slot in a ploy engineered in no small part by OH senator Mark Hanna in an attempt to sidetrack him permanently, since the last sitting vice president to gain the nomination (at that time) was Van Buren, in 1836. However, as alluded to, TR's fame and popularity were enormous, and as (I believe) Edmund Morris and H. W. Brand mention in their biographies, the boom for 1904 was already under way when TR succeeded McKinley upon the latter's death. Thus, I stand by my assertions that (1) TR would have become president anyhow, and (2) he'd be every bit as well known in the non-assassination TL as he is in OTL.


There might well be a boom for him, but that doesn't mean it will succeed.

After all, he certainl;y wasn't the usual Repubblican nominee. The GOP typically went for solid mediocrity, and would almost certainly have done so when choosing McKinley's successor.

TR might still be well-known, but probably the way Bryan and LaFollette are well-known - as a great insurgent who never quite made the top.
 
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