Would there have been a Second World War if Germany had won the first?

Guys

A lot depends on the circumstances but, if WWI occurs it's very likely to be followed by another conflict. A short war, whether victorious by either side or quickly terminated, would be unlikely to see major border changes or a real solution of the questions of who's the dominant power.

If there's a long war the costs and bitterness are likely to prompt a harsh peace which will leave resentment and also war-weariness by the victor which allows the defeated power a chance to regain a position of strength and challenge their opponents again.

A big win by either side will generate instability simply because no one [other than the power involved] wants a single dominant power dictating to them all]. If it was a big allied victory, even with a czarist or democratic government surviving then the fact there are 3 major powers with different interests will make for problems holding the alliance together. A big central powers victory, which basically means a big German one is potentially even more unstable as that leaves one nation trying to control everything and everyone else deeply unhappy.

The Napoleonic wars are a bit of a dodgy example. Partly because there were a number of big wars in the period that followed, just that since one side won fairly quickly in most cases they seemed less devastating. Even more so because of the nature of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars and the way they were resolved. A regime that was seen as deeply alien and threatening - initially revolutionary France, then imperial France was defeated after much suffering which meant that no one wanted more war, or social instability. Also, because the war had started with social revolution France, under the Bourbons was quickly restored to the council of nations and was let off fairly lightly. Hence there was no deeply resentful power seeking to regain a lost position.

This was not the case in 1914 as there was no truly alien state to be defeated and then have a restoration of a previous regime. Hence there was bound to be at least one power resentful and seeking to restore its position. Possibly if Germany or Russia had fallen victim to some sort of hard line Marxist system, then indulged in some sort of military crusade against the rest of Europe, being defeated after a long conflict you might have had a similar situation. The restored government could have still had a place as a major nation with a deep hostility toward the ideas that had caused all the problems. However I think this was unlikely.

In OTL there was no such social gulf. There were some reactionary or militant states and some relatively liberal and democratic ones but they were split over both alliances. Hence it was simply a question of national interests and survival. Therefore the defeated nation(s) were treated relatively harshly to both pay for the war and seek to prevent them threatening the peace of the other nations. Therefore, unless you had a decisive victory by the allies, preferably early on, it's difficult not to have defeated powers not seeking revenge. If you manage to avoid the collapse of Russia into Bolshevism its far more likely you could prevent WWII but you're still likely to have elements in Germany deeply resenting their defeat.

Steve
 

Maur

Banned
Pondering the damage that the World Wars did to Europe- ending it's hegemony but setting the stage for their colonies independence and America's ascendance- I became curious as to how to most minimize that damage. The ideal would be for WW1 to have been avoided totally, but it seems one was inevitable. It seems to me however that the same cannot be said of a second world war, and the subsequent cold war- if only Germany had won the first, they would have lacked a continental rival to cause the carnage of WW2.

Is that assumption correct? The only potential threat I can see is Russia, but seeing how Russia had been hamstrung I can't see the German's allowing them to reestablish themselves as a threat. This of course leaves open the question of whether Germany would let them become communist or not.

But either way, Germany would presumably stomp them if they looked to be reestablishing themselves as a threat(that was the primary motive for WW1 in the first place, curbing Russia's ascent before they industrialized to the point of standing a significant chance against Germany).
Well, first, even WWI is avoidable. If Germany thinks it cannot win, it won't start the war, so let's assume Willy is too meek to start it in 1914 (which may be ASB) and for few years more, and then the opening passes.

And WWII is simply avoidable by not having Weimar Republic collapse. Which is completely realistic.

Thanks:)

Even with the first scenario, what major challenger to Germany exists? No matter how hostile Britain is their is little they can do, as they are the sea power- with France and Russia both subdued, what army can possibly challenge that of Germany?
Russia. Unless the peace treaty is totally harsh, and strips it of Ukraine and Belarus, it's going to be stronger than in OTL without terrible carnage of civil war.
 
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