Would there be much more immigrants in Eastern Europe right now if it wasn't for Communism?

That would certainly significantly help in the short-run, but what about the long(er)-run?.

Do you just not comprehend the magnitude of those numbers? With extrapolation you could end up with almost sixty million additional people in the USSR alone!

Honestly, if you just want an "Eastern Europe would have more Muslims" answer, just start an Ottoman conquest thread in pre-1900...
 
Denmark doesn't have very many Jews to begin with, though.

Maybe not but they have been in Denmark since the 17th century and have been a higher percent of the population in the past and if they was rich when they entered Denmark, they stayed rich, but if they was poor, they only ended up middle class. There's no law of nature that Jews will end up extremely wealthy.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Do you just not comprehend the magnitude of those numbers? With extrapolation you could end up with almost sixty million additional people in the USSR alone!

Honestly, if you just want an "Eastern Europe would have more Muslims" answer, just start an Ottoman conquest thread in pre-1900...
Having massive numbers of natives didn't prevent the U.S. from accepting large numbers of immigrants after 1965 in our TL, though.

Maybe not but they have been in Denmark since the 17th century and have been a higher percent of the population in the past and if they was rich when they entered Denmark, they stayed rich, but if they was poor, they only ended up middle class. There's no law of nature that Jews will end up extremely wealthy.
True; however, Jews do appear to be overrepresented in regards to billionaires in various countries. Don't believe me? Then click on the seventh link here:

https://www.google.com/search?q=ste...64.psy-ab..27.3.890...0j0i131k1.0.xWbAg8zpgyM
 
Yes, I am counting in decades here.

Also, are you suggesting that Western Europe's importation of large numbers of immigrants right now isn't based on labor needs but rather based on political considerations?

If you're referring to the refugee crisis, isnt it pretty obvious that the whole thing is entirely based on political considerations?

Unless you want to make the argument that the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War were orchestrated by the West to get more labour for what are essentially post-industrial economies?

Western Europe doesn't appear to be richer than Japan right now, though.

Your point being?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If you're referring to the refugee crisis, isnt it pretty obvious that the whole thing is entirely based on political considerations?

Unless you want to make the argument that the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War were orchestrated by the West to get more labour for what are essentially post-industrial economies?

For what it's worth, I was talking about even before the refugee crisis. After all, countries such as Germany already had a lot of immigrants even before the start of the Arab Spring.

Your point being?

My point is that I am unsure that your point here in regards to Eastern Europe would be accurate.
 
For what it's worth, I was talking about even before the refugee crisis. After all, countries such as Germany already had a lot of immigrants even before the start of the Arab Spring.

Frankly, I'm not sure what point you are even trying to make here.

My point is that I am unsure that your point here in regards to Eastern Europe would be accurate.

First off, how does Japan even count as a counterargument here?

Second off, even the examples Zajir gave of non-communist states overtaking communist statates are less wealthy than economic and financial powerhouses like France and Germany. What, are you going to claim that Poland is going to be the match of the fourth biggest economy on Earth?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yeah, and? You cant simply transplant internal American politics into for example Russia and call it a day.
My point here was that having a large supply of native workers doesn't necessarily undercut the demand for immigrants, though. Indeed, I don't know if you could transplant U.S. politics to Russia in a TL where Russia doesn't go Communist; however, I wouldn't exclude the possibility that, even with a huge domestic workforce, some powerful factions in Russia could be advocating in favor of large-scale immigration to Russia.

First off, how does Japan even count as a counterargument here?

Well, if Japan is as wealthy on a per capita basis as Western Europe is, why exactly couldn't the same thing have been true for countries such as Poland, Russia, and Czechoslovakia without a history of Communist rule?

Second off, even the examples Zajir gave of non-communist states overtaking communist statates are less wealthy than economic and financial powerhouses like France and Germany. What, are you going to claim that Poland is going to be the match of the fourth biggest economy on Earth?

Based on its PISA scores, Yes, I actually do think that Poland will eventually be able to have the same kind of per capita GDP as France, Germany, and Britain have. Indeed, in terms of total GDP, Poland will be less due to their smaller population; however, in terms of per capita GDP, I certainly expect eventual Polish convergence to French, German, and British levels.
 
Well, if Japan is as wealthy on a per capita basis as Western Europe is, why exactly couldn't the same thing have been true for countries such as Poland, Russia, and Czechoslovakia without a history of Communist rule?

Oh, just little things like geography, history and geopolitics, maybe?

Based on its PISA scores, Yes, I actually do think that Poland will eventually be able to have the same kind of per capita GDP as France, Germany, and Britain have. Indeed, in terms of total GDP, Poland will be less due to their smaller population; however, in terms of per capita GDP, I certainly expect eventual Polish convergence to French, German, and British levels.

Now you're just being silly. I honestly dont think I can take what you say seriously anymore.
 
My point here was that having a large supply of native workers doesn't necessarily undercut the demand for immigrants, though.

Only if you assume the situation of the United States applies to everyone, everywhere.

, I don't know if you could transplant U.S. politics to Russia in a TL where Russia doesn't go Communist; however, I wouldn't exclude the possibility that, even with a huge domestic workforce, some powerful factions in Russia could be advocating in favor of large-scale immigration to Russia.

You really only want to hear one answer, dont you?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Oh, just little things like geography, history and geopolitics, maybe?

So, how exactly is Japan much more advantaged than Eastern Europe in regards to this?

Now you're just being silly. I honestly dont think I can take what you say seriously anymore.

Actually, it shows on page 14 here that Poland will almost converge with Italy's GDP per capita level by 2050:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www2.goldmansachs.com/ContentPages/18582260.pdf

Thus, Polish convergence with France and Germany by 2100 doesn't sound too implausible in our TL.

Anyway, maybe countries such as Poland would have still been poorer than France and Germany right now in a TL without Communist rule, but I doubt that Poland would have been much poorer than Italy without Communist rule.

Only if you assume the situation of the United States applies to everyone, everywhere.

You really only want to hear one answer, dont you?

Well, I just want to keep all options open in regards to this. Indeed, it looks like we might have a simple disagreement here.
 
Please keep in mind that Britain isn't wealthier than other Western European countries in spite of having an earlier head start in regards to industrialization, though.
Industrialization doesn't immediately equate to a high standard of living, nor does it immediately place you in first world nations. I was talking about the differences in the standard of living, which is what is important.

Also, please keep in mind that PISA scores for some Eastern European countries are very similar to those for various Western European countries:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_Student_Assessment#PISA_2015

Indeed, as I have posted above, economic prosperity for countries without large resource or tourism windfalls is largely determined by their levels of human capital. Thus, some Eastern European countries appear to have the potential to reach Western European levels of prosperity and standards of living. :)
Yes, *some* is the key word. I've already stated that Czechoslovakia and the Baltics had the potential to become first world nations had they not ended up screwed up, but that's not all or even most of Eastern Europe.

And besides, these PISA results are OTL and 70 years after the POD.
 
Anyway, maybe countries such as Poland would have still been poorer than France and Germany right now in a TL without Communist rule, but I doubt that Poland would have been much poorer than Italy without Communist rule.
Refer to this map:

M0M9a5x.png


Without World War II, Poland would stay as an agrarian authoritarian dictatorship on the outskirts of Europe, so it's best to compare it to another agrarian authoritarian dictatorship on the outskirts of Europe, which had basically the same level of GDP per capita:

Spain.
 
Frankly, wouldn't you assume that the gasterbeiters of ATL would be Eastern European instead of Turkish?

I think there necessarily would be work-related migration from Eastern Europe to Western Europe, as the latter would most likely be on average a more affluent area. But then I also believe that when moving across borders for work is allowed, better-off nations will always attract people from less successful economies. So, at least parts of Eastern Europe would ITTL get guest workers from outside Europe as well. This all of course has many moving parts - how does decolonization pan out ITTL, how does the Middle East develop, or northern Africa. What is the trajectory of the lands of the (possibly former) Russian Empire. I think that in some Eastern European countries we could see brain drain to the West, being then offset by getting guest workers from countries outside Europe. And then we should not even entirely discount moving from the West to the East, in terms of our definitions. Greeks or Portuguese workers moving to Czechoslovakian factories to build cars would not be impossible ITTL. Like I pointed out earlier, some nations in Eastern Europe ITTL would be more affluent than others, and some even more affluent than a part of what we see as Western nations.

So, while I agree that moving from the East to the West inside Europe would be common, more common than IOTL, it would not make up the whole picture. IOTL, countries have inside 20-40 years moved from sending guest workers to receiving them - like Finland, where great numbers of people moved to Sweden for work in the 70s and which since the 90s has received similarly major numbers of Estonian guest workers. ITTL we would see similar developments with nations changing places, as it were, depending on the success of their policies, the general European and world trends and contingency. It also might be that we could have success stories we can't predict or unexpected losers. Western Europe would not be unaffected, and we can't count on all "Western" nations doing as well as IOTL in the face of competition from a large number of Eastern European economies, unfettered by the chains of real Socialism and the Iron Curtain like IOTL. In this I am mainly looking at the "PIIGS" as potential comparative losers.


Refer to this map:

M0M9a5x.png


Without World War II, Poland would stay as an agrarian authoritarian dictatorship on the outskirts of Europe, so it's best to compare it to another agrarian authoritarian dictatorship on the outskirts of Europe, which had basically the same level of GDP per capita:

Spain.

While I agree with what you are saying here*, I am not entirely trusting of the numbers in those maps, namely the 1938 one. I for example doubt Finland in 1938 had passed France and the Netherlands in GDP per capita, or that the gap to Estonia, say, was that big. I think generally IOTL Finland approaching the bigger Western economies so closely happened only in the 70s and 80s.

So, personally I'll reserve some room for scepticism in terms of these maps.:)

*To an extent. I don't exactly believe in fully predetermined economic trajectories for nations, so there would have been room for Poland to grow into a more affluent economy than Italy, I believe, with the right decisions and a measure of luck. Not as much room as for Czechoslovakia, but it would exist.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
Refer to this map:

M0M9a5x.png


Without World War II, Poland would stay as an agrarian authoritarian dictatorship on the outskirts of Europe, so it's best to compare it to another agrarian authoritarian dictatorship on the outskirts of Europe, which had basically the same level of GDP per capita:

Spain.
Yes, Spain and Portugal appear to be somewhat better analogies to Poland here. However, even Spain and Portugal appear to be developed countries right now in our TL.

Plus, it is worth noting that Spain had a large influx of immigrants over the last 30 years to the point that they made up a double-digit percentage of Spain's total population.
 
Yes, Spain and Portugal appear to be somewhat better analogies to Poland here. However, even Spain and Portugal appear to be developed countries right now in our TL.

Plus, it is worth noting that Spain had a large influx of immigrants over the last 30 years to the point that they made up a double-digit percentage of Spain's total population.
Well that's because there is a large source of immigration a few kilometers to the south of Spain.

There is no large source of immigration anywhere near Poland.
 
Well that's because there is a large source of immigration a few kilometers to the south of Spain.

There is no large source of immigration anywhere near Poland.

Couldn't that source in an ATL be Russia or Ukraine? It would perhaps necessarily be a TL that is a comparative economic Russia-screw and Poland-wank, but it is not IMHO entirely unfeasible.
 
Couldn't that source in an ATL be Russia or Ukraine? It would perhaps necessarily be a TL that is a comparative economic Russia-screw and Poland-wank, but it is not IMHO entirely unfeasible.
I'd say that Russia and Ukraine are a bit too close to Poland in economic terms for that to be something anywhere as large scale as OTL North African immigration to Spain.

And even if they were very apart, the Baltics and Scandinavia are just as close as Poland and (barring a serious Polandwank) would be even more prosperous. Plus there is the economic giant to the west of Poland and the anti-Russian attitudes of the Poles to keep in mind.

Of course, that's not to say that such a scenario is impossible, but it's not very likely, imo.
 
There is already large scale migration from Ukraine to Poland-over million people, although most of them are seasonal workers many settled there for good.
 
While I agree with what you are saying here*, I am not entirely trusting of the numbers in those maps, namely the 1938 one. I for example doubt Finland in 1938 had passed France and the Netherlands in GDP per capita, or that the gap to Estonia, say, was that big. I think generally IOTL Finland approaching the bigger Western economies so closely happened only in the 70s and 80s.

I should find the source, but Poland in the 1930s was showing some real, sustained economic growth, in part due to a crash industrialization effort. So I wouldn't count them out...
 
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