Would the Wallies have made peace if Stalin dropped out of WW2?

[Deleted member 1487]

OK but what if Churchill dies (assume natural causes though assassination would make a better novel) in November-December 1940. I've packed away my best sources on British politics at this time as we're preparing to move so I'm not sure if Halifax, Butler and Lloyd George could command a majority for a government aiming at peace talks. I would think some Tories like Eden would want to stay in the war, especially with hope of US aid, as would Labour.

It's a bit OT for this thread (as it's meant to be about a different POD in 1943) so perhaps we can regroup in a couple of months when I've had a chance to read Kershaw and Costello again plus check other sources? Then I can post a WI with a basic scenario for you and others to critique. Constructively of course I hope.

Halifax was not in favor after the defeat in the War Cabinet crisis and in January would be sent to the US as ambassador by Churchill. If Churchill dies, Halifax may still be the only viable Conservative member of the War Cabinet as yet, as Eden is not part of the Cabinet. IIRC only a member of the War Cabinet can replace the PM and Labour certainly would not be allowed to take over the office of the PM even if Halifax is not liked with the Conservative party. Perhaps as PM then Halifax could ask for terms as he tried to do clandestinely as US ambassador. Certainly his mind about the war hadn't changed and he could mix up the War Cabinet to his liking, but the national unity government would not like it at all.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Halifax was not in favor after the defeat in the War Cabinet crisis and in January would be sent to the US as ambassador by Churchill. If Churchill dies, Halifax may still be the only viable Conservative member of the War Cabinet as yet, as Eden is not part of the Cabinet. IIRC only a member of the War Cabinet can replace the PM and Labour certainly would not be allowed to take over the office of the PM even if Halifax is not liked with the Conservative party. Perhaps as PM then Halifax could ask for terms as he tried to do clandestinely as US ambassador. Certainly his mind about the war hadn't changed and he could mix up the War Cabinet to his liking, but the national unity government would not like it at all.

Your take is similar to mine. I think the National Unity government would have to be dissolved and Halifax form a government supported only by Lloyd George's faction of the Liberals. So the POD needs to be end-December at the latest while he's still in Britain and before Lend Lease. What I'm pondering is whether too many Tories MPs would split off from the party for that to be viable.

Still, another time?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Your take is similar to mine. I think the National Unity government would have to be dissolved and Halifax form a government supported only by Lloyd George's faction of the Liberals. So the POD needs to be end-December at the latest while he's still in Britain and before Lend Lease. What I'm pondering is whether too many Tories MPs would split off from the party for that to be viable.

Still, another time?

The question is whether the Blitz and BoB made British negotiations with Hitler politically impossible. Anyway yeah we can talk more another time.

 

[Wendigo]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ermany-already-victorious-in-the-east.302881/

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/germany-wins-at-east-loses-at-west.65116/

Extremely relevant to this thread.

 

[CrimsonKing]

I hope this doesn't qualify as a necro (there isn't a warning over the reply box), I've been going over some past threads and wanted to address this.

That would seem to be a gross exaggeration; historically Germany produced less than 80,000 tonnes of chemical weapons, of which about 12,000 tonnes was tabun. The rest were various vesicants, hydrogen cyanide, phosgene and oddities like chlorine trifluoride and sprayable nitric acid

The statistics (assuming the 80,000 tons number is correct) do not contradict each other at all, Germany undertook a series of projects to construct weapons production facilities throughout the war, many of which were still ongoing when it ended. The quote said "by 1944," not for the entire war. What probably happened was limited production through to late 1943, then production at or near capacity for a few months before the economy collapsed.

Most of which are tactical weapons, not useful against British targets given the lack of capability of the Luftwaffe for strategic bombing.

The point was that they did have the capacity for production on a very large scale, which would also have applied to the manufacturing of warheads for the V-1 and V-2. Although the Ar 234 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arado_Ar_234 is a possible delivery system for the 1944-45 timeframe being "nearly impossible to intercept" according the article.

Why?

considerable evacuation of manufacturing to the east (in the same way the USSR historically did in the face of Operation Barbarossa) could take place, which would make bombing considerably more difficult and enable more concentration of production to achieve economies of scale, to say nothing of the fact that at least a large portion of the former Soviet armaments industry would be under Axis control.

That's a very big assumption.

The Axis needs oil. They have just defeated the USSR. But it's a big assumption that they would confiscate Soviet oil stocks???????? You do know the Germans seized French oil stocks after the Fall of France?

Or bombed by the US/US.

While the Luftwaffe sits there and does nothing apparently.

 

[Histor32]

I hope this doesn't qualify as a necro (there isn't a warning over the reply box), I've been going over some past threads and wanted to address this.


The statistics (assuming the 80,000 tons number is correct) do not contradict each other at all, Germany undertook a series of projects to construct weapons production facilities throughout the war, many of which were still ongoing when it ended. The quote said "by 1944," not for the entire war. What probably happened was limited production through to late 1943, then production at or near capacity for a few months before the economy collapsed.

The point was that they did have the capacity for production on a very large scale, which would also have applied to the manufacturing of warheads for the V-1 and V-2. Although the Ar 234 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arado_Ar_234 is a possible delivery system for the 1944-45 timeframe being "nearly impossible to intercept" according the article.

The Axis needs oil. They have just defeated the USSR. But it's a big assumption that they would confiscate Soviet oil stocks???????? You do know the Germans seized French oil stocks after the Fall of France?

While the Luftwaffe sits there and does nothing apparently.

even better food for thought would be one of okay, the soviets cut a deal and the germans accept. the Soviet Union is LARGE, while the west still hammers away, the soviets are being rearmed from the far east.


even if the Germans get Baku, they still have to get the oil back to front lines.


If the Germans cut the magic deal and free France, Belgium ( most of it ), Norway, Denmark ( most of it ), then the west just might call it a day, with things just settling into a cold war. However, that said, come 1945/46 and the bomb, and whom ever gets it first or possibly around the same time ( but I doubt it ) then I would assume that party would restart hostilities with a bang.

As for Chemical Weapons, using them means tic for tack reprisal, and I would assume if one side has Atomic Weapons then the other would use chemical or radiological and things get very ugly from there.

The USA is going to fight Japan to the bitter end no matter what.

 

[CrimsonKing]

even better food for thought would be one of okay, the soviets cut a deal and the germans accept. the Soviet Union is LARGE, while the west still hammers away, the soviets are being rearmed from the far east.


even if the Germans get Baku, they still have to get the oil back to front lines.


If the Germans cut the magic deal and free France, Belgium ( most of it ), Norway, Denmark ( most of it ), then the west just might call it a day, with things just settling into a cold war. However, that said, come 1945/46 and the bomb, and whom ever gets it first or possibly around the same time ( but I doubt it ) then I would assume that party would restart hostilities with a bang.

As for Chemical Weapons, using them means tic for tack reprisal, and I would assume if one side has Atomic Weapons then the other would use chemical or radiological and things get very ugly from there.

The USA is going to fight Japan to the bitter end no matter what.

The scenario you mention of a down but not out Soviet Union following a defeat in 1942 is being explored currently in the "Fallen on the March" timeline.https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-after-a-german-victory-at-stalingrad.405727/ It is estimated in that TL that although following a capture of the oilfields in late 1942 it would take until May 1944 to restore them to complete productivity, some oil would become available after six months following their capture (assuming they had been completely demolished beforehand).

I can see the peace agreement you mention coming about, particularly if someone other than Hitler is in charge. Of course, there is no dispute that atomic weapons add a new element to the situation, although the timeline linked to above has nuclear bombardment of Germany not having the crippling effect which might be expected.

I'm not saying the Germans would actually use chemical weapons first, just that they'd stockpile them as part of their efforts to persuade the Wallies to enter into negotiation.