Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Jabe Shepherd, Jul 11, 2018.
State your opinions below
I don't think its particularly likely, unless the Germans start it by sticking their nose in places where it doesn't belong (Like South America). If the German position in Europe truely seems unassailable and they stay focused on developing their huge new sphere of influence/conquest in Eastern Europe, than its still a massive market and the US needs a place to export too.
Depending on when the Nazis win (and how much leaks out regarding certain policies) the US isn't starting a Cold War. Americans were anti-communist, had no desire to return to Europe, and (it may shock you) some Americans agreed with racial policies. Fascism was immensely popular. The Germans will be too busy digesting their European (and potentially African) gains to even think of bothering with the other hemisphere.
Considering the führer's personality and judging by his OTL foreign policy decisions, this seems quite likely.
It depends on how stable and developed this new nazi German empire will be. Considering previous discussions on the subject, it doesn't seem like the victorious reich would be a haven of economic stability.
Unless the German populace manages to breed at a rate to give Malthus' spirit a jumpscare, the USA will instead prefer to fund Russia (which will probably ditch its communist pretense, especially after Stalin's colossal blunder) and her partisan allies for "liberating" eastern Europe and returning most of the Slavs to their proper homelands.
I expect there will be some sort of frigidity between the USA and Germany. Lets assume they don't occupy Britain, because if they do then the odds of them developing a presence in British Possessions in the Caribbean as well as French possessions there, which the USA is simply not going to tolerate. A victorious Germany is most definitely going to try and get South American countries in their orbit, Argentina for starts. Again, this will not make the USA happy. While the USA was anticommunist, and yeah sure there was racism/antisemitism in the USA but the number of folks in the USA who would be "OK" with what the Nazis have been doing, and it simply cannot be secret for long. Also, even absent German presence in the Western Hemisphere, a victorious Germany with bases on the French and Norwegian coasts and the wherewithal to build a significant navy makes the "moat" a lot less secure.
nazi Germany was expanding connections in Latin America well before 1939. There were several 'Facist' governments and Facist type parties that sought to neutralize US domination through connections with Germany.1940-1942 saw a diplomatic/economic war between the US and Germany in the Latin American capitols.
Henry Ford thought the nazis were capitol fellows and admired the way they had cleaned things up in Germany. He had invested in Germany manufacturing. Irene Dupont had a joint venture with IG Farben, bank rolled conservative organizations in the US, was accused of backing financially the businessmen plot. Rockefeller owned Chase Bank was heavily involved in joint ventures with the Reichsbank, several of the family thought the nazis just the thing the US needed. Since these guys were not particularly upset by lynchings, the genocide of the native Americans, or the agenda of the post 1915 KKK They might not have any heartburn over a nazi ruled Europe
@Carl Schwamberger : I agree totally there were a non-trivial number of Nazi sympathizers in the USA, especially in some of the upper crust. However overall, they number of real sympathizers was not that large, and while some folks would be happy with Nazi actions towards Jews, Gypsies, and Slavs...
Wouldn't United States view Germany as a threat given its free of any need for a massive army and could theoretical build a navy to surpass the United States and Britain after a few decades.
Germany and its European empire would have a serious impact on the US economically. The United States was never economically isolationist. Germany has destroyed previous trade partners and placed them under their banner. Example: say Ford has a deal with a British plant. That plant is now German and producing BMWs, with all the production orders and monies owed to Ford wiped out because no one is going to pay it. You're cutting an unimaginable number of large and small economic strings and screwing up the flow of economics. And Germany will position itself as competition with the US economically, which will lead to competition in every other fashion as well.
Quite true. I think its easy to see the diverse political views in the US would make a firm policy in any direction difficult. Ultimately it might depend on nazi economic success or failure. While some businessmen like Ford were still having success in Facist Germany & had profits there 1939-41 most US businessmen in the European trade had increasing difficulties and trade with German dominated Europe declined from German policy as well as the British blockade. If in a post war nazi Europe trade policy is not to mutual benefit and US trade with Europe does not recover to 1920s levels, or at least 1938 levels then tensions will be greater.
Theres also the political effects of a mass of Europeans fleeing to North and South America. While the US and others would take some restrictive measures a lot of smart and capable people will still enter and have a effect on US and latin American political direction. Even that they cannot vote their voice would tend to counter balance Facist or pro nazi proponents.
There is this. If Germany is aggressively pursuing trade in Latin America and other regions the US is attempting to substitute for Europe then a larger and global capable navy may be pursued.
We also can't follow the thinking of Hitler to far in this. His health may fail, some Heydrich like individual may 'replace' Hitler. A more aggressive policy towards the US than Hitler rambled on about may be sought under different leadership.
If on the other hand the nazi leaders sit back to enjoy their spoils and build bigger palaces, squabbling with each other over their new empire. Then the US, Japan, the former British Dominions and the remaining European empires like Portugal would be building a new global economy, while Facist Europe stagnates and becomes less relevant in the larger world. So much of this seems to depend on how the nazi or European Facist leadership develops post war and what policies they develop.
There’s some details that need to be worked out there: what’s the state of Britain and the USSR? Any German peace with Britain would probably have been highly antagonistic, short the advent of a fascist government in the UK, and the British with American aid would have been continually working behind the scenes to undermine German control of their restive Reich. If Germany hasn’t invaded and won against the Soviet Union, then that’s an additional complicating factor.
think a durable CommuNazi Axis would be more likely to both survive and provoke Cold War scenario?
The Nazis were seeking to extend its influence into Latin America which the Americans would not tolerate. Also Germany would have likely been employing a highly protectionist economy across Europe that likely would shut the US out and further poison relations. Hitler wanted self sustainability and to relinquish the Reich's dependency on foreign markets/resources.
Germany is going to still occupy Denmark and want Greenland and Iceland returned to their control? even leaving aside South America they are bumping up against American red lines?
A durable Soviet alignment is not on the table as long as Hitler and his fellow nazis are in charge. The Racial inferiority of the Slav was one of the foundation posts of nazi policy. Then there is the dependance on the resources of eastern Europe and Siberia, the nazis cant achieve Autuarky just with the resources of western and central Europe. Then there is the Communist bogeyman, and the nazi belief that the Bolshiviks were controlled by the Jewish Cabal, which connects directly to the Jewish Cabal controlling everyone else as well.
1. We Aryans need those resources.
2. The resources are used by our inferiors, people fit only to be slaves.
3. Those people are controlled by our racial enemies.
These underlying tenets lead right along to a effort to subjugate the USSR & any other non Aryan states in eastern Europe. The nazi Soviet pact of 1939 was aberration brought on by Anglo/French diplomatic miscalculation.
Yeah. At best the Nazis winds up in a Cold War with the Soviets on top of the one against the Anglo-Americans but any sort of alliance, much less a enduring one, ain’t gonna happen.
Someone would have to explain the conditions that exist that would allow the Germans to win first. Is Britian defeated? or does it sign some kind of Armistice? Does a German-Soviet war happen? If so what are the results? What year does the war end in?
do you think USSR would invade a victorious Nazi regime? absent the US circa what year?
No. While by 1942 the Red Army will be strong enough to repel a Nazis attack, no way is Stalin going to attack the Germans. He wants easy fights and Germany standing atop all of Europe is a far cry from an easy fight. If the Germans attack him, then that’s another matter.
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