Would the Russian Empire "decolonize" like the Soviet Union?

i'm going over the notes in my ASB ATL again (i'm on version 8 now :p ) and just got to the "Butterfly Effects and the Consequences of Divergence" section. one of the sub-sections for this is on the Soviet Union not existing and notes the changes to geopolitics that resulted from its dissolution. until now, i've had it that, without the Soviet Union coming to be, Russia retains the parts that it lost (refresher: eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia) through to the present-day. now, though, i'm starting to wonder if the loss of these regions was inevitable regardless of if the Soviet Union existed. thoughts?
They were inevitable once ww1 and ww2 and the gulags happened.

You can dodge it with an extra 60 million people from missing deaths from ww1 ww2 the gulags and some population growth from the extra survivors.

That of course relies on not having comparable disasters in your atl.
 
They were inevitable once ww1 and ww2 and the gulags happened.

You can dodge it with an extra 60 million people from missing deaths from ww1 ww2 the gulags and some population growth from the extra survivors.

That of course relies on not having comparable disasters in your atl.

Also competent leadership and modernization would help secure a better Russia. it wont matter much if they avoid disasters if things are not improving
 
Butterflies. Probably no Nazis in this TL.

This. A possibility for a future German-led invasion of Russia? Why not, given the right circumstances it could be entirely plausible. Recognizable very-much-like-OTL Nazis behind said invasion? Very, very unlikely to the point of impossibility due to butterflies, etc.
 
1. Russia in 1913 had a population of at most 175.1 million

The wikipedia page marks "181 537 800" as according to a 1916 estimate

2. In the 1897 census, only 44.31% of the entire population of the empire spoke Russian. Even if Ukrainians and Belarusians were included, still only 66.8% of the population.

This is 128 million according to the same page, and it greatly overweights the Finns, this without even going that this gap would continue to grow as the Russian birthrate was the hightest in europe

3. Even without the Great War, Russia was still far from being a centralized government that could force unwilling conscripts of all ethnicities to crack down on ethnic revolts. Sure, Finland was small, but what exactly is the justification for expending resources on Finland when you had the more rebellious Poles that took up almost 10% of the entire population?

This is not needed as there would be more than enought ethnic russians to be involved in Finland if they tried to rebel; the same goes for Poland, we just need to remember what happened the last time they tried to rebel against Russians and add that in a Russian WWI victory scenario Russia would be even more unwilling to grant independence to those territories

Absent all external issues, the Russians could naturally crush all Finnish attempts to break away. But then the Russian Empire was not alone in the world or even in Europe - in any TL, it is not just Russia's internal development or the sheer comparative weight of ethnic Russians/Slavs that decides the fate of the smaller nationalities on the "Baltic fringe".

The Jaegers fought for the central powers against Russia, yes, but have Russia to win the war or not to have any war at all, and as I said above, the gap would get bigger and bigger with time, if the Russians want they can get very far to hold those territories
 
The Russian Empire already had problems with its possessions before WWI. The Baltic States and Finland were growing ever more resentful of the Tsar's Russiafication plans and there was a rising tide of nationalism in them. This was also true to a lesser extent in the Ukraine, and the Poles were never anything but livid at losing their independence.
According to the Germans in 1916, all the Baltic nations are loyal to the Russian Empire. A literal quote from the survey of intelligence - "Russophiles."
Freedom and self-determination of Ukraine as one of the most important areas of work of the Austro-Hungarian intelligence service was a response to Russian pan-Slavism. Nothing noticeable before 1917 did not work.
All rolled down after the triumph of democracy and the destruction of state institutions in February 1917.
"I am proud that during my reign, Russia was the freest country in the world." A. Kerensky ... Self-praise of Judas.
You are right only in relation to Finland.
 

RousseauX

Donor
They were inevitable once ww1 and ww2 and the gulags happened.

You can dodge it with an extra 60 million people from missing deaths from ww1 ww2 the gulags and some population growth from the extra survivors.

That of course relies on not having comparable disasters in your atl.
is the 60 million for *Russia* or for the Russian Empire/USSR?

because those are different things and affect the composition of % of ethnicities within atl russian empire
 
They were inevitable once ww1 and ww2 and the gulags happened.

You can dodge it with an extra 60 million people from missing deaths from ww1 ww2 the gulags and some population growth from the extra survivors.

That of course relies on not having comparable disasters in your atl.
i try to think of each of these smaller scenarios i propose for threads as being self-contained and then i work on them taking place along with all the other stuff ;) any and all bits of information help in that regard and i like to explore all the possibilities
 
The Jaegers fought for the central powers against Russia, yes, but have Russia to win the war or not to have any war at all, and as I said above, the gap would get bigger and bigger with time, if the Russians want they can get very far to hold those territories

There are many potential/plausible conflicts Russia could get involved with in the first half of the 20th century, and given the Russian Empire's general instability in the face of international trouble (shown by both the Russo-Japanese War and WWI IOTL, both leading to significant disturbances across the empire), it is highly likely that there would be chances for the smaller nationalities in the border areas to try to break away.

Like I said, Russia was not alone in Europe or the world. It can easily get involved in crises or entanglements with other powers and alliances that contribute to breaking down the Empire's internal cohesion. Especially if St. Petersburg itself is deliberately contributing to such processes of breaking down Russia's internal cohesion like the OTL-style hamfisted Russification efforts in Finland or Poland were.
 
Last edited:
According to the Germans in 1916, all the Baltic nations are loyal to the Russian Empire. A literal quote from the survey of intelligence - "Russophiles."
Freedom and self-determination of Ukraine as one of the most important areas of work of the Austro-Hungarian intelligence service was a response to Russian pan-Slavism. Nothing noticeable before 1917 did not work.
All rolled down after the triumph of democracy and the destruction of state institutions in February 1917.
"I am proud that during my reign, Russia was the freest country in the world." A. Kerensky ... Self-praise of Judas.
You are right only in relation to Finland.
I'm curious. Of course, I do not question the conclusion, but I wonder how much of this is based on Russians or Russian-identifying people being the majority at the time.
 
You might see Finland and perhaps the Baltics getting some greater level of autonomy. The only reason you had "decolonialization" in the USSR was because the USSR imploded. The Russia prior to the revolution had a significant Russification policy, pushing language, culture, and religion throughout the Empire. This was no longer official policy following the revolution, and not pushed hard for some time. As long as the Russian Empire maintains decent cohesion and a more rational economy than the USSR did, no reason to see bits and pieces fall off.
 
I'm curious. Of course, I do not question the conclusion, but I wonder how much of this is based on Russians or Russian-identifying people being the majority at the time.
I do not really understand the question. In general, the issue of the "prison of nations" (Lenin) I think will show the list of ethnic formations of the Imperial Army.

Infantry:
1st Serbian Infantry Division
- 1st Serbian Infantry Regiment
- 2nd Serbian Infantry Regiment
- 3rd Serbian Infantry Regiment
- 4th Serbian Infantry Regiment

2nd Serbian Infantry Division
- 5th Serbian Infantry Regiment
- 6th Serbian Infantry Regiment
- 7th Serbian Infantry Regiment
- 8th Serbian Infantry Regiment

Polish Rifle Brigade
- 1st Polish Rifle Battalion
- 2nd Polish Rifle Battalion
- 3rd Polish Rifle Battalion
- 4th Polish Rifle Battalion

1st Brigade of the Czechoslovak Legionaries
- 1st Czechoslovak Yan Gus Rifle Regiment
- 2nd Czechoslovak Rifle Regiment
- 3rd Czechoslovak Yan Zyzhka Rifle Regiment
- 4th Czechoslovak Rifle Regiment

Armenian Volunteer Forces (Armenian Rifle Battalions)
+ 1-st detachment Andronicus (1st Armenian Rifle Battalion)
+ 2nd detachment Amazasp (2nd Armenian Rifle Battalion)
+ 3rd detachment Dro (3rd Armenian Rifle Battalion)
+ 4th detachment Keri (4th Armenian Rifle Battalion)
+ 5th detachment (5th Armenian Rifle Battalion)
+ 6th detachment Bejambek (6th Armenian Rifle Battalion)

Georgian Volunteer Forces
+ Kutaisi Volunteer Detachment
+ Tiflis Volunteer Detachment
They are consolidated into the Georgian Rifle Battalion, later the Georgian Rifle Regiment

1st Latvian Rifle Division
+ 1st Ust-Dvinsky Shooting Regiment
+ 2nd Riga Rifle Regiment
+ 3rd Kurzeme Rifle Regiment
+ 4th Vidzeme Rifle Regiment

2nd Latvian Rifle Division
+ 5th Semigall Rifle Regiment
+ 6th Tukkum Rifle Regiment
+ 7th Baucks Rifle Regiment
+ 8th Wolmar Rifle Regiment

Ossetian Rifle Brigade (equated to the Cossacks)
+ 1st Ossetian Rifle Battalion
+ 2-nd Ossetian Rifle Battalion
+ 3rd Ossetian Rifle Battalion
+ 4th Ossetian Rifle Battalion

Cavalry:
Dagestan Horse Regiment (1st Dagestan Horse Regiment )
Ossetian Horse squadron * (Later, the Ossetian Horse Regiment )
The Turkmen Horse squadron * (later the Teke Horse Regiment )
2nd Dagestan Horse Regiment
The Kabardian Horse Regiment
Tatar Horse Regiment
Chechen Horse Regiment
Ingush Horse Regiment
Circassian Horse Regiment
The Polish Ulan squadron * (later the Polish Ulan Regiment)
Armenian volunteer squadron*

* A squadron in the modern American meaning of the term is a battalion.
 
The Serbian units were strictly foreign volunteers. Imperial Russia would have a border on or by the Adriatic when horses and griffins mated in the wild, to use a Classical phrase.
 
Last edited:
There are several questionable things about your statement.

1. Russia in 1913 had a population of at most 175.1 million.
2. In the 1897 census, only 44.31% of the entire population of the empire spoke Russian. Even if Ukrainians and Belarusians were included, still only 66.8% of the population.
3. Even without the Great War, Russia was still far from being a centralized government that could force unwilling conscripts of all ethnicities to crack down on ethnic revolts. Sure, Finland was small, but what exactly is the justification for expending resources on Finland when you had the more rebellious Poles that took up almost 10% of the entire population?

The core of the Russian Empire is the Orthodox Church which claimed 70% of the country. It was the glue that held the Empire together just like Catholicism is the glue for the Hapsburg

The slavic languages aren't that different and are totally comprehensible to the speakers of others. In any event, as people moved from villages to the cities, they would adopt the dominant language which was Russian. Russian was also widely known as a second language. Its the natural choice and allows people to talk to one another. Its one thing to know Yiddish in a village where there are only your fellow Yiddish speakers, quite another to be in a big city and come across others all day

Then there is the matter of population intermingling There are no neat divisions and the railways mean the populations would spread far and wide. Russia is simply not a European colonial Empire but an integrated whole. Large numbers of Russians would live in the outlying areas and many of the ethnic minorities would live in Russia

We also need to remember that many of these groups disliked each other more than the Russians. Georgians and Turks for example. In Finland, there are tensions between the Swedish elite and Finnish populations

The Soviet Union dissolved peacefully because everyone hated it and wanted done with it. The independence based on the existing political boundries was easy and the gains for everyone obvious. Yugoslavia would be the other model- possible but unlikely
 
The Serbian units were strictly foreign volunteers. Imperial Russia would have a border on or by the Adriatic when hoses and griffins mated in the wild, to use a Classical phrase.

Or more likely, when Austria was destroyed and Germany re emerged as a threat to France. If the Russians win WWI , they are taking a lot. Sort of like they did in WWII
 
In Finland, there are tensions between the Swedish elite and Finnish populations

If there is any Russification, the Finnish- and Swedish-speakers in the Grand Duchy would probably band together against St. Petersburg's heavyhanded policies, though. There is a famous Fennoman saying - "Swedish we are not, Russians we do not want to be, so let us be Finns - that pretty much nails the general Finnish attitude in the 19th and early 20th centuries OTL, IMO. If the Russians want to drive a wedge between the Finnish- and Swedish-speakers, and to make the Finnish-speakers loyal, the key would be to treat them well and honor the rights of the Grand Duchy and its citizens while boosting the position of the Finnish language. Pretty much the opposite to Russification, that is.
 
The Serbian units were strictly foreign volunteers. Imperial Russia would have a border on or by the Adriatic when hoses and griffins mated in the wild, to use a Classical phrase.
"Volunteer Corps of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes" was mainly formed from Austro-Hungarian prisoners. Initially, for action in the Serbian army.
 
Top