Would the Japanese have invaded the Philippines if they already acquired the rest of their wargoals?

Plausibility check for an alternate scenario in Shared Worlds. It has multiple POD's and diverges greatly, but I'll give a synopsis here.

The first POD is in 1939. Although Germany invades Poland with the Soviets as OTL, Hitler gets killed off by an assassination soon after, replaced by Goering. While still an insane, megalomaniacal Nazi, Goering makes less idiotic foreign policy decisions than his predecessor, and keeps the alliance and importation deals with the Soviet Union. German spies instigate British paranoia about the Soviets, leading to Operation Pike against the seemingly-allied Soviets and Germans, aimed at Soviet Baku. This escalates into a proxy conflict in Iran and India.

Meanwhile, Japan invades Britain and France when they declare war on Germany. French Indochina falls, and later British Malaysia and Singapore, the latter partly due to luck on the part of the Japanese, but also because the British are distracted in the Mediterranean, Iran, and the North Sea after the fall of France.

From here, the Japanese have a clear advantage in the South China Sea. While Germany strong-arms the Netherlands into the Axis in Europe, Dutch Indonesia (with some resistance) becomes the main oil supply for the Japanese Empire after the US restricts oil exports to Japan. Japanese troops enforce this. However, by this point, FDR has died, replaced by Henry A. Wallace. This, and a series of scandals by J Edgar Hoover lead to a surge in isolationism.

The communist movement in China is particularly unlucky, with Mao Zedong killed by a Japanese raid. From here, largely unchallenged in their waters, the Japanese focus on defeating British naval presence in Australia, and also distracting the British in India by supporting Azad Hind.

After a long series of events in Europe including Turkey joining the Axis and being aided by Erwin Rommel against the British, and a less-"puppeted", more sovereign 'Vichy' France with not-insignificant control of its colonies participating in the Italian invasions of Africa, the British and Germans start approaching stalemate in German favor. Economic troubles from the lack of conquests and confiscations in the east, and pointless naval war with Britain, lead to a military coup in Germany, which removes the Nazis from power. In Britain, extraordinarily unlucky Winston Churchill who has lost France, French Algeria, and British Malaya, is replaced by Clement Attlee, who agrees to peace with the new government of Germany. This allows the British to push back against the Soviet invasion of Iran and India, after which peace is made with Stalin.

With the big powers at peace, military-industrialist Germany prepares for an invasion of the Soviets from the west, while the IJA, who has largely prevailed in China, prepares to invade the Soviets from the east.

Japan is able to hold their ground against the Soviets after declaring war, although without much forward success. However, once Germany, who has assembled puppet states from France to Romania to Hungary to Italy to Turkey, begins their invasion, the Soviets are now fighting on two sides.

Japan is able to take control of Mongolia and southeast Siberia, while the Germans, with more allies and manpower than OTL, push into European Russia. Stalin is killed.

The end result is a collapsing Soviet Union, with the Japanese establishing a defensive frontier for their territories in China, and the Germans pushing toward Moscow. In late 1945, Japan has the upper hand and nearly secured ceasefire with the British and Soviets.

TL;DR: Japan conquers China, Korea, Manchuria, Indochina, and much of Indonesia by the end of 1945, while securing several years of peace with the British and Soviets. So the Empire of Japan pretty much has all the resources they want, but the US looms as a growing if isolationist competitor. The Philippines have also gone independent from the US, as per the Philippine Independence Act.

Would Japan invade the Philippines in this scenario, to complete the "Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere"?
 
I don't think so; as I understand it, the role of the Philippine invasion was to induce the American battleship line to steam west to retake it so the Japanese could fight the big decisive battle they wanted. Furthermore, depending on the faction, the conquest of the Southern Resource Region was gathering resources for the final battle with communism, the diametric opposite of everything the Japanese believed in.
 
Just a first few things that caught my eye:
1. Would Dutch East Indies fall Axis with the Netherlands? They don't need to, for one.
2. If Dutch East Indies did fall to Axis, the US and Britain would do their damnedest to make it flip to Neutral or WAllies.
3. If Mao falls then Peng or Zhou leads. The CCP wouldn't fall that easily. Furthermore even Chinese resistance is definitely going to happen, with or without Communism.
4. Having "allies" ultimately didn't help for WWII, particularly France or the Eastern European states; none of them probably wants to commit divisions' worth into grueling warfare.
5. The Japanese would be fighting a losing war if they ever try to take down the USSR, with or without German help. They just don't have the logistics for it.
6. Where's the US in all this? Why aren't they responding?
 
Just a first few things that caught my eye:
1. Would Dutch East Indies fall Axis with the Netherlands? They don't need to, for one.
2. If Dutch East Indies did fall to Axis, the US and Britain would do their damnedest to make it flip to Neutral or WAllies.
3. If Mao falls then Peng or Zhou leads. The CCP wouldn't fall that easily. Furthermore even Chinese resistance is definitely going to happen, with or without Communism.
4. Having "allies" ultimately didn't help for WWII, particularly France or the Eastern European states; none of them probably wants to commit divisions' worth into grueling warfare.
5. The Japanese would be fighting a losing war if they ever try to take down the USSR, with or without German help. They just don't have the logistics for it.
6. Where's the US in all this? Why aren't they responding?


This is part of an ongoing map game: Basically Hitler was killed by Elsers attempt, Germany is much samer (and has "won the war against the Ententem, but Britain was not beaten, just made peace after it found itself fighting against the Soviet Union, Germany and Japan (alone as the US went isolationistic TTL - Dewey is president).

Tehre is debate if Japan would attack the Phillies (independent, but US sphere) AFTEr it has achieved its asian war goals (which seem within reach in late 1945)


Note : Britain has LOST india (LOOONG story), but the Axis no longer exists after the German Junta had a fallout with Benny the Mouse...
 

trurle

Banned
Plausibility check for an alternate scenario in Shared Worlds. It has multiple POD's and diverges greatly, but I'll give a synopsis here.

The first POD is in 1939. Although Germany invades Poland with the Soviets as OTL, Hitler gets killed off by an assassination soon after, replaced by Goering. While still an insane, megalomaniacal Nazi, Goering makes less idiotic foreign policy decisions than his predecessor, and keeps the alliance and importation deals with the Soviet Union. German spies instigate British paranoia about the Soviets, leading to Operation Pike against the seemingly-allied Soviets and Germans, aimed at Soviet Baku. This escalates into a proxy conflict in Iran and India.

Meanwhile, Japan invades Britain and France when they declare war on Germany. French Indochina falls, and later British Malaysia and Singapore, the latter partly due to luck on the part of the Japanese, but also because the British are distracted in the Mediterranean, Iran, and the North Sea after the fall of France.

From here, the Japanese have a clear advantage in the South China Sea. While Germany strong-arms the Netherlands into the Axis in Europe, Dutch Indonesia (with some resistance) becomes the main oil supply for the Japanese Empire after the US restricts oil exports to Japan. Japanese troops enforce this. However, by this point, FDR has died, replaced by Henry A. Wallace. This, and a series of scandals by J Edgar Hoover lead to a surge in isolationism.

The communist movement in China is particularly unlucky, with Mao Zedong killed by a Japanese raid. From here, largely unchallenged in their waters, the Japanese focus on defeating British naval presence in Australia, and also distracting the British in India by supporting Azad Hind.

After a long series of events in Europe including Turkey joining the Axis and being aided by Erwin Rommel against the British, and a less-"puppeted", more sovereign 'Vichy' France with not-insignificant control of its colonies participating in the Italian invasions of Africa, the British and Germans start approaching stalemate in German favor. Economic troubles from the lack of conquests and confiscations in the east, and pointless naval war with Britain, lead to a military coup in Germany, which removes the Nazis from power. In Britain, extraordinarily unlucky Winston Churchill who has lost France, French Algeria, and British Malaya, is replaced by Clement Attlee, who agrees to peace with the new government of Germany. This allows the British to push back against the Soviet invasion of Iran and India, after which peace is made with Stalin.

With the big powers at peace, military-industrialist Germany prepares for an invasion of the Soviets from the west, while the IJA, who has largely prevailed in China, prepares to invade the Soviets from the east.

Japan is able to hold their ground against the Soviets after declaring war, although without much forward success. However, once Germany, who has assembled puppet states from France to Romania to Hungary to Italy to Turkey, begins their invasion, the Soviets are now fighting on two sides.

Japan is able to take control of Mongolia and southeast Siberia, while the Germans, with more allies and manpower than OTL, push into European Russia. Stalin is killed.

The end result is a collapsing Soviet Union, with the Japanese establishing a defensive frontier for their territories in China, and the Germans pushing toward Moscow. In late 1945, Japan has the upper hand and nearly secured ceasefire with the British and Soviets.

TL;DR: Japan conquers China, Korea, Manchuria, Indochina, and much of Indonesia by the end of 1945, while securing several years of peace with the British and Soviets. So the Empire of Japan pretty much has all the resources they want, but the US looms as a growing if isolationist competitor. The Philippines have also gone independent from the US, as per the Philippine Independence Act.

Would Japan invade the Philippines in this scenario, to complete the "Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere"?


Well, actual question should be "Will the Japanese become sensible enough to discover the resources they already have?"
Even IOTL, Japan had the resources needed for state development (oil, coal, gas, iron, other metals, even uranium) on their territory or on concessions (North Sakhalin and Kuriles - oil and rhenium) or colonies (Korea, Manchukuo).
They just preferred to invest into Navy and Army instead of geological surveys or search for substitutes (i.e. coal gasification, plastics, cheaper aluminum processes etc.) No territorial advances can rectify such a faulty mental circuit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mines_in_Japan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Japan

Therefore, the answer: the Japanese invasion to Philippines in 1945 is less likely compared to OTL (because Philippines is even less of military threat, and independence process of Philippines was started even before your PODs). But the decision "invade or not invade" based on "resource grab" philosophy has nothing do do the the political/military PODs in this timeline.
 
Well, actual question should be "Will the Japanese become sensible enough to discover the resources they already have?"
Even IOTL, Japan had the resources needed for state development (oil, coal, gas, iron, other metals, even uranium) on their territory or on concessions (North Sakhalin and Kuriles - oil and rhenium) or colonies (Korea, Manchukuo).

One of the interesting metals is a hidden abundance of gold.

Ore Deposits of the Hishikari Mine

The Hishikari mine is the only gold mine in Japan in operation today. In the country’s long history of mining, there has never been a more productive gold mine, and never a mine yielding better quality gold. The reason? It all has to do with volcanic hot springs, and geological mechanisms perhaps unique to Japan.

The Hishikari mine is located in this valley in northern Kagoshima Prefecture. The hot water seeping into mineshafts is supplied to the nearby hot spring spa.

Sado Kinzan was Japan’s biggest gold mine for almost 400 years, beginning in the early 1600s. Another major discovery was made in Hokkaido in 1915, and the result was the Konomai gold mine. But these and other deposits had basically given out by the 1980s, and the mines shut down one after the other. Today, gold is mined in Japan only at Hishikari in Kagoshima in southern Kyushu.

Hishikari is now one of the best gold mines in the world. The average grade is 40 grams of gold to one ton of ore. A profit can be made at 2 grams per ton, so the gold at Hishikari was certainly a major find. Since digging began in 1985, the mine has produced seven to ten tons of gold per year—165 tons over the last 23 years. That is more than twice the amount produced at Sado and Konomai combined, making Hishikari the most important in Japan’s long history of gold mining.

But why was such a big gold deposit discovered only in the 1980s? And, could there be similar deposits elsewhere, waiting to be discovered?

Scientists want answers to these types of questions, so they are examining the mine’s geological structure, and trying to learn how the gold was deposited there. One scientist, Dr. Watanabe Yasushi of the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), explains: “The gold at Sado and Konomai formed more than 10 million years ago, but the deposits at Hishikari are only about 1 million years old, which is relatively young geologically speaking. The rock above had still not been eroded, so the veins were not exposed on the surface. That is why they were discovered only recently.

With a bit of luck or an oddball geolocial theory it might have been discovered earlier.
 
Probably they only invaded IOTL because was seen a threat to their naval operations, if they basically have everything they need, then their would be no point.
 
My argument is yes. Without taking issue with the premises and assuming the world as you offer, my understanding of the Japanese thinking would never permit the Philippines to sit astride their Sea Lines and within their defensive perimeter. Notwithstanding United States isolationism or neutrality, notwithstanding the possibility to overrun Asia without war with the US, to the Japanese it is an intolerable threat in their midst. In addition the decisive fleet battle must occur for peace to reign as I understand the IJN's strategic thought. One might liken the Philippines to Cuba and the USA, it was worth going to war over, so unless Japanese thought shifts the Pacific remains a USA versus Japan flash point and Asia sees a USSR versus Japan cold war as I understand where this sits. My questions become how much does the US aid China's war or insurgency? Do the British yield Asia and retreat West of Suez (without India here)? How does USSR aid Communist revolutions generally and insurgency in China? How does USA and USSR relations warm with a common enemy in Japan?

A faulty yard stick, but by my estimates Imperial Japan (with Manchukuo) would in 2015 be the third Super Power (by GDP) behind China and USA, ahead of the Republic of India, a truncated USSR and victorious Germany not conquering Europe. With China inside the Empire it is almost twice the power of the USA measured in GDP. So how do your Japanese use that economic power?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Plausibility check for an alternate scenario in Shared Worlds. It has multiple POD's and diverges greatly, but I'll give a synopsis here.

The first POD is in 1939. Although Germany invades Poland with the Soviets as OTL, Hitler gets killed off by an assassination soon after, replaced by Goering. While still an insane, megalomaniacal Nazi, Goering makes less idiotic foreign policy decisions than his predecessor, and keeps the alliance and importation deals with the Soviet Union. German spies instigate British paranoia about the Soviets, leading to Operation Pike against the seemingly-allied Soviets and Germans, aimed at Soviet Baku. This escalates into a proxy conflict in Iran and India.

Meanwhile, Japan invades Britain and France when they declare war on Germany. French Indochina falls, and later British Malaysia and Singapore, the latter partly due to luck on the part of the Japanese, but also because the British are distracted in the Mediterranean, Iran, and the North Sea after the fall of France.

From here, the Japanese have a clear advantage in the South China Sea. While Germany strong-arms the Netherlands into the Axis in Europe, Dutch Indonesia (with some resistance) becomes the main oil supply for the Japanese Empire after the US restricts oil exports to Japan. Japanese troops enforce this. However, by this point, FDR has died, replaced by Henry A. Wallace. This, and a series of scandals by J Edgar Hoover lead to a surge in isolationism.

The communist movement in China is particularly unlucky, with Mao Zedong killed by a Japanese raid. From here, largely unchallenged in their waters, the Japanese focus on defeating British naval presence in Australia, and also distracting the British in India by supporting Azad Hind.

After a long series of events in Europe including Turkey joining the Axis and being aided by Erwin Rommel against the British, and a less-"puppeted", more sovereign 'Vichy' France with not-insignificant control of its colonies participating in the Italian invasions of Africa, the British and Germans start approaching stalemate in German favor. Economic troubles from the lack of conquests and confiscations in the east, and pointless naval war with Britain, lead to a military coup in Germany, which removes the Nazis from power. In Britain, extraordinarily unlucky Winston Churchill who has lost France, French Algeria, and British Malaya, is replaced by Clement Attlee, who agrees to peace with the new government of Germany. This allows the British to push back against the Soviet invasion of Iran and India, after which peace is made with Stalin.

With the big powers at peace, military-industrialist Germany prepares for an invasion of the Soviets from the west, while the IJA, who has largely prevailed in China, prepares to invade the Soviets from the east.

Japan is able to hold their ground against the Soviets after declaring war, although without much forward success. However, once Germany, who has assembled puppet states from France to Romania to Hungary to Italy to Turkey, begins their invasion, the Soviets are now fighting on two sides.

Japan is able to take control of Mongolia and southeast Siberia, while the Germans, with more allies and manpower than OTL, push into European Russia. Stalin is killed.

The end result is a collapsing Soviet Union, with the Japanese establishing a defensive frontier for their territories in China, and the Germans pushing toward Moscow. In late 1945, Japan has the upper hand and nearly secured ceasefire with the British and Soviets.

TL;DR: Japan conquers China, Korea, Manchuria, Indochina, and much of Indonesia by the end of 1945, while securing several years of peace with the British and Soviets. So the Empire of Japan pretty much has all the resources they want, but the US looms as a growing if isolationist competitor. The Philippines have also gone independent from the US, as per the Philippine Independence Act.

Would Japan invade the Philippines in this scenario, to complete the "Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere"?
The U.S. was obligated to defend the Philippines under the same Treaty that granted the Islands independence.

The rest of the scenario...

Not sure the annual Monarch migration could handle all of that.
 

trurle

Banned
My argument is yes. Without taking issue with the premises and assuming the world as you offer, my understanding of the Japanese thinking would never permit the Philippines to sit astride their Sea Lines and within their defensive perimeter. Notwithstanding United States isolationism or neutrality, notwithstanding the possibility to overrun Asia without war with the US, to the Japanese it is an intolerable threat in their midst. In addition the decisive fleet battle must occur for peace to reign as I understand the IJN's strategic thought. One might liken the Philippines to Cuba and the USA, it was worth going to war over, so unless Japanese thought shifts the Pacific remains a USA versus Japan flash point and Asia sees a USSR versus Japan cold war as I understand where this sits. My questions become how much does the US aid China's war or insurgency? Do the British yield Asia and retreat West of Suez (without India here)? How does USSR aid Communist revolutions generally and insurgency in China? How does USA and USSR relations warm with a common enemy in Japan?

A faulty yard stick, but by my estimates Imperial Japan (with Manchukuo) would in 2015 be the third Super Power (by GDP) behind China and USA, ahead of the Republic of India, a truncated USSR and victorious Germany not conquering Europe. With China inside the Empire it is almost twice the power of the USA measured in GDP. So how do your Japanese use that economic power?
Plainly impossible. US+British had the power to defeat all other states (including even tentative pro-Axis Soviet Union) by 1948. Or at least combinedfleet.com author make such an estimation (which is close to truth, i.m.h.o.)
Also, post-war economic growth of Japan was mainly the result of the reforms forced by US. Without been defeated (therefore with ineffective governance) and with a simmering insurgency in China, Japan is likely to enter a long stagnation right after the war (see the Spain as likely model).
 
Plainly impossible. US+British had the power to defeat all other states (including even tentative pro-Axis Soviet Union) by 1948. Or at least combinedfleet.com author make such an estimation (which is close to truth, i.m.h.o.)
Also, post-war economic growth of Japan was mainly the result of the reforms forced by US. Without been defeated (therefore with ineffective governance) and with a simmering insurgency in China, Japan is likely to enter a long stagnation right after the war (see the Spain as likely model).

As I understand the question, it was whether Japan would invade the Philippines after avoiding war with the USA in 1941 or thereafter at some unknown future date post the 1941 to 1945 period. Accepting the premise, without agreeing to it, assuming a 1946 independence of the Philippines, I argue Japan behaves much like the USA did as concerns Cuba, ready for war, ready to invade, the drums beating as they were right through the missile crisis. This Japan would likely be emboldened, as was the USA, to eliminate the enemy on the door step as soon as possible. I did not assume nuclear weaponry on either side. Yet that may not be deterrent enough either. As Japan here consolidates its hold on Asia the Philippines is a serious flash point and I assume the USA remains very much in the picture as a protector, ally or what have you.

My questions were aimed at the 1941 to 1945 period where Japan is warring in Southeast Asia and China yet avoiding war at large. If Japan gets that much blessing, and Japan does not go to war over the Philippines, as suggested by the nature of "what if," then my questions pose the possibility for Imperial Japan becoming a participant in some form of "cold war" with the USA at least, likely the USA, UK, Australia and whatever the French, Dutch, Germans and USSR become beginning in 1945 if not 1941. This cold war lasts until Japan invades the Philippines. Or the USSR and Japan go at over China or any other possible point of war between Japan and its enemies.

I will not debate that my estimate is very rough, nor argue that modern Japan is a product of the post-war period after its defeat, but I suggest the Japanese were not hopelessly inferior, and offer that modern America is also a product of that victory, its current strength is as dependent upon being the emergent giant from the ashes of WWII. I merely held things equal, give both the same per capita GDP as a rough measure; that is a Japan nipping at our heals just as they were way back then, give them all that territory, and seventy years, they are in the running as a super power as that time marches forward.
 
As I understand the question, it was whether Japan would invade the Philippines after avoiding war with the USA in 1941 or thereafter at some unknown future date post the 1941 to 1945 period. Accepting the premise, without agreeing to it, assuming a 1946 independence of the Philippines, I argue Japan behaves much like the USA did as concerns Cuba, ready for war, ready to invade, the drums beating as they were right through the missile crisis. This Japan would likely be emboldened, as was the USA, to eliminate the enemy on the door step as soon as possible. I did not assume nuclear weaponry on either side. Yet that may not be deterrent enough either. As Japan here consolidates its hold on Asia the Philippines is a serious flash point and I assume the USA remains very much in the picture as a protector, ally or what have you.

My questions were aimed at the 1941 to 1945 period where Japan is warring in Southeast Asia and China yet avoiding war at large. If Japan gets that much blessing, and Japan does not go to war over the Philippines, as suggested by the nature of "what if," then my questions pose the possibility for Imperial Japan becoming a participant in some form of "cold war" with the USA at least, likely the USA, UK, Australia and whatever the French, Dutch, Germans and USSR become beginning in 1945 if not 1941. This cold war lasts until Japan invades the Philippines. Or the USSR and Japan go at over China or any other possible point of war between Japan and its enemies.

I will not debate that my estimate is very rough, nor argue that modern Japan is a product of the post-war period after its defeat, but I suggest the Japanese were not hopelessly inferior, and offer that modern America is also a product of that victory, its current strength is as dependent upon being the emergent giant from the ashes of WWII. I merely held things equal, give both the same per capita GDP as a rough measure; that is a Japan nipping at our heals just as they were way back then, give them all that territory, and seventy years, they are in the running as a super power as that time marches forward.

Actually, the US's own warmaking potential in 1937 was ten times greater than Japan's, give or take. Japan was not nipping at the US's heels; it was taking their entire industry just to present a threat. Once the US started to shift its economy and produce to match Japan, it will soon overtake it. The US is an extension of its victory, just as Japan would be for them. Japan would have (in your scenario) occupy large portions of China along with Indochina and Indonesia, along with whatever other territories it could manage to. It would have to devote quite a large portion of its economy just to occupy that land. It's similar to what Germany would have to do if they occupied all of Europe; large portions of the army would have to occupy the conquered regions and keep the populace occupied and working for the empire. Depending on how long it would loot and exploit the native populace, it would manage to enrich the home islands, but the outer regions would be kept poor and work camps for the glory of Nippon.

The outer territories would not be developed to the same point as the inner ones, as they would be exploited by Japan and have armies occupied to keep the populace down. Think the Kwantung Army writ large. Oh, and this is all with either the Chinese communists, the Chinese nationalists, and whatever other Chinese warlord may be ruling at the time further attacking Japan. That's not to count the rest of the occupied nations. There are going to be collaborators, but the Japanese were hardly coming in to liberate the nations; they were occupying and add them to their Empire to be converted and integrated at some later point.

So, in the end, all other things would not be equal. Japan's industry would be stunted as they would maintain a war footing the entire time, even though they would be liberating the resources of the Southern Resource Area for the Glory of Japan, those resources would be quite easily cut off in the event of war breaking out in the Pacific. And, even if the US goes isolationist in 1940, by 1944 they'd see all of Asia being conquered (and remember, the Pacific was always considered the US's backyard). The US would have to prepare for war simply because their possessions would be the only targets left. The Japanese always underestimated the threat posed by submarines, only ever trying to build up their merchant marine and destroyer forces late in the war in order to counteract the losses incurred. That doctrine will not change since the war never occurred.
 
Actually, the US's own warmaking potential in 1937 was ten times greater than Japan's, give or take. Japan was not nipping at the US's heels; it was taking their entire industry just to present a threat. Once the US started to shift its economy and produce to match Japan, it will soon overtake it. The US is an extension of its victory, just as Japan would be for them. Japan would have (in your scenario) occupy large portions of China along with Indochina and Indonesia, along with whatever other territories it could manage to. It would have to devote quite a large portion of its economy just to occupy that land. It's similar to what Germany would have to do if they occupied all of Europe; large portions of the army would have to occupy the conquered regions and keep the populace occupied and working for the empire. Depending on how long it would loot and exploit the native populace, it would manage to enrich the home islands, but the outer regions would be kept poor and work camps for the glory of Nippon.

The outer territories would not be developed to the same point as the inner ones, as they would be exploited by Japan and have armies occupied to keep the populace down. Think the Kwantung Army writ large. Oh, and this is all with either the Chinese communists, the Chinese nationalists, and whatever other Chinese warlord may be ruling at the time further attacking Japan. That's not to count the rest of the occupied nations. There are going to be collaborators, but the Japanese were hardly coming in to liberate the nations; they were occupying and add them to their Empire to be converted and integrated at some later point.

So, in the end, all other things would not be equal. Japan's industry would be stunted as they would maintain a war footing the entire time, even though they would be liberating the resources of the Southern Resource Area for the Glory of Japan, those resources would be quite easily cut off in the event of war breaking out in the Pacific. And, even if the US goes isolationist in 1940, by 1944 they'd see all of Asia being conquered (and remember, the Pacific was always considered the US's backyard). The US would have to prepare for war simply because their possessions would be the only targets left. The Japanese always underestimated the threat posed by submarines, only ever trying to build up their merchant marine and destroyer forces late in the war in order to counteract the losses incurred. That doctrine will not change since the war never occurred.

It appears the point of this exercise is that Japan avoids war in 1941 and is on the brink of invading the Philippines at some future date so what occurred in the timeline we know is guiding by a dimming light as years pass. First, Japan's Fleet was on par with the USN in the areas that matter to Naval thought in its day, Battleships, Cruisers and distantly Carriers, unless the USN can strip the Atlantic, although we were building, we are close to parity. Yet without war in 1941 I question if FDR runs in 1944 and if a Republican administration arrives defense spending likely slumps or we see a wholesale retrenchment. So end strength stays at parity and there is no building boom to fill out the Essex-class, etc. Second, the Japanese had industrialized rapidly and diligently upon international trade, I do not assume that this industry sits on its hands and wallows in stagnation. They may not get to current levels but I doubt they wither either. Third, the embargo on oil was intended to be temporary, as I understand it the policy was put on much stronger in effect and FDR backed it. Perhaps here that leads to an understanding and "detente", if so the US simply goes back to trading with Japan and grumbles about "abuses" while earning profits, few leaders then were especially fond of Asia or Asians to really go to war to save it from the Japanese. So this won't be our first turn at trading with brutal or warring regimes we dislike. Fifth, I see Japan balkanizing China here, Manchuria folded into the Empire, so other provinces might follow, the KMT was pressing for top-down unity and the CCP was pressing for bottom-up revolution, thus I am not convinced China stands up forever, especially if deals get cut and Japan moderates, look at Mongolia and the USSR, or Poland or Bulgaria, they get assimilated. After all we protested the Baltic States getting folded into the USSR yet did not go to war over it, then, or later.

All that said I have a hard time seeing the war avoided in 1941, the more I dig into it I see it as a collision course that takes higher order hand waiving to avert, yet here I can see the potential for Japan to transition to a repressive, militaristic world power we hate yet can live with even if uncomfortably, just like the Cold War and the USSR. Maybe Japan slowly dies like the USSR, so we see an end to this in the late-eighties? That is my opinion on this fantasy.
 
It appears the point of this exercise is that Japan avoids war in 1941 and is on the brink of invading the Philippines at some future date so what occurred in the timeline we know is guiding by a dimming light as years pass. First, Japan's Fleet was on par with the USN in the areas that matter to Naval thought in its day, Battleships, Cruisers and distantly Carriers, unless the USN can strip the Atlantic, although we were building, we are close to parity. Yet without war in 1941 I question if FDR runs in 1944 and if a Republican administration arrives defense spending likely slumps or we see a wholesale retrenchment. So end strength stays at parity and there is no building boom to fill out the Essex-class, etc. Second, the Japanese had industrialized rapidly and diligently upon international trade, I do not assume that this industry sits on its hands and wallows in stagnation. They may not get to current levels but I doubt they wither either. Third, the embargo on oil was intended to be temporary, as I understand it the policy was put on much stronger in effect and FDR backed it. Perhaps here that leads to an understanding and "detente", if so the US simply goes back to trading with Japan and grumbles about "abuses" while earning profits, few leaders then were especially fond of Asia or Asians to really go to war to save it from the Japanese. So this won't be our first turn at trading with brutal or warring regimes we dislike. Fifth, I see Japan balkanizing China here, Manchuria folded into the Empire, so other provinces might follow, the KMT was pressing for top-down unity and the CCP was pressing for bottom-up revolution, thus I am not convinced China stands up forever, especially if deals get cut and Japan moderates, look at Mongolia and the USSR, or Poland or Bulgaria, they get assimilated. After all we protested the Baltic States getting folded into the USSR yet did not go to war over it, then, or later.

All that said I have a hard time seeing the war avoided in 1941, the more I dig into it I see it as a collision course that takes higher order hand waiving to avert, yet here I can see the potential for Japan to transition to a repressive, militaristic world power we hate yet can live with even if uncomfortably, just like the Cold War and the USSR. Maybe Japan slowly dies like the USSR, so we see an end to this in the late-eighties? That is my opinion on this fantasy.

1. It was on par or better for a relatively short period of time, but was behind on light ships and submarines. (And once fire control is brought into the equation, then even the battleships will be tested). And, again, it would only take the slightest hint of a threat to cause its largest enemies to head on. With the Soviet Union, there was the buffer of multiple large allied/neutral states that stood between the USSR and the US. There would be no buffer of the sort for Japan and the US; the only thing even close would be Australia, which would automatically drift into US orbit if Great Britain couldn't protect it. Other than that, Japan has a large and vast empire with a dagger pointed straight at its heart - one that it is both ideologically opposed to its actions and knows that it is the greatest threat it would face if its plans do come true.

2. Industry in the home islands will increase; industry in the Southern Resource Area and China et al would be limited to resource extraction. Granted, Home Islands would expand to Karafuto and Taiwan early, and maybe Korea by 1960 after decades-long genocide, which is probably the earliest point at which any kind of moderation can occur. That is the only way at all the mainland can stay Japanese; otherwise, China would inevitably become the stronger of the two partners (and the others would dilute their power), and Japan would quickly become the tail wagging the dog - which the Empire and the Army would not allow happen. The only solution to that is, of course, decades long genocide (literal and cultural) to try and wipe out everything that is not Japanese about the conquered lands. And they could not sustain the population growth or the assimilation to actually make those regions part of Japan, save for small portions of their empire.

3. If Japan has oil in Borneo, why stop the embargo? You'd be competing with an internally subsidized oil industry (as the Japanese would be milking every inch to fuel their armies and navies) and you'd be assisting a regime that will have undoubtedly carried out many more Rapes of Nanking among others. Moderation wouldn't come for decades afterwards. Also, the Chinese were viewed fairly well (as long as they were still in China, it is still the 1940s) and certainly more favorable than the other nations. Given the anti-imperialist mood of the nation, and the threat to American business interests in China (which of course are destroyed by the Japanese and their efforts to wipe out everything that isn't Japanese) would be viewed quite negatively. The fact that an imperialist Japan is gallivanting across Asia, raping and murdering and pillaging the wealth of everything they come across and the only thing stopping them from complete domination of the Pacific is the US, what would they do? Especially as the natural target is to complete their domination of the Pacific and start creating allies in the Americas. This mega-Japanese Empire is a more direct threat to North America than the Soviets are simply due to the scale of their successors.

4. Even with collaborators, there are simply too many Chinese, Vietnamese, Laotians, Cambodians, Javanese, Malay, and every other ethnic group for the Japanese to eternally maintain control. There would have to be permanent armies stationed throughout the mainland for decades; it'd be Kwantung writ large. The Soviet Union had the advantage of liberating a large portion of Europe from Nazi Germany, which did earn it some goodwill. Even then, there were proponents of communism inside those puppet states that were established. You had a divided populace from the get-go. The better analogue is to look at the track record of the puppet states established by the Germans (especially the Slavic ones) ...Thing is, there were none of those, just resettlement regions (which is what China would have had to been to, again, really stay in the Empire). Splitting China up into multiple regions (which would have meant there would have been multiple Han-majority states) all for the express purpose of the enrichment of the Japanese empire would have been that much more difficult to accomplish. There's not even an ideological similarity; at worse, some regions would be trading one colonial master for another, more violent one.

Even if the war could have been avoided in 1941, the successful acquisition of neutral/friendly territory would have been another strike against the Japanese for the US. And with every year, the Japanese become more powerful, which is something that the US couldn't have happen; else, they'd risk the west coast being threatened. US possessions and protectorates in the Pacific would have become extremely vulnerable to these large armadas, especially at first. Of course, then you have the problem of all of those US possessions being hardened and fortified per existing orders. I believe it was Calbear's Pacific War Redux that went over how difficult the Pacific Islands would have been to assault in 1942; the Japanese could project that assessment into 1943 and 1944 (and, if they have been so successful to have wiped everything out before them in that time, they might even try then).

I just feel that such an empire would have become a pariah state and would never have moderated simply because the Army held such control over the government; if the Army succeeds in pacifying China, then the army would have been the de facto ruler of the state, and its needs would become the Empire's needs. There would be no place for a moderator to appear until it all, simply, falls apart.
 
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