Would the Habsburgs had fared better or worse without Royal Hungary?

POD: John Szapolyai achieves early victory against Ferdinand in 1527, who has to retreat from the country. An agreement is reached, which (once again) garantuees Habsburg succession upon the childless death of the hungarian king. This does not occur.

Mostly focusing on Austria and the Habsburgs, what could had been the consequences?
 

AlexG

Banned
Austria and Hungary end up worse.
Austria needed Hungarian manpower, and Hungary needed Austria’s network of alliances, leadership and coin in order to liberate itself from Ottoman rule.
 
Without Austria (Or other very substantial outside help) Hungary falls to the Ottomans instead of becoming a buffer state for Austria. Than the battleground for the following 100-150 years of german-ottoman warfare would be Austria instead of Hungary. Austria is worse off for sure - Hungary might be better off but not by much. It would be very different for sure.
 
I know, there should be an explanation for such a thing as Hungary not falling to the Turks in such a scenario, but what I would want to mostly discuss about is the Habsburg capabilities and potential if they wouldn't had needed to deal with the Turks on a constant basis, but they also wouldn't had had the land and resources of Royal Hungary.

I know it's a tall order, but could we please handwave away the issue regarding Hungarian weakness and focus solely on the ITTL more "Western-oriented" Austrian Habsburgs?

If you see fit, the POD could be changed, I just wanted to assure, that the Habsburgs obtain Bohemia the same as OTL.
 
For Habsburgs pre-1526 situation was better than post-Mohacs. Jagiellon Hungary shielded their backs when they were busy in Italy.
For the time being, sure. However, if the title of Emperor is still passed on to Ferdinand and his branch, then having Austria alone would greatly diminish their strength within the Empire compared to OTL. That's why I choose this specific POD to assure Habsburg rule in Bohemia.
 
For Habsburgs pre-1526 situation was better than post-Mohacs. Jagiellon Hungary shielded their backs when they were busy in Italy.
I have to agree. If the Habsburgs don't control Hungary directly, then a surviving Jagiellon line in Hungary-Bohemia could be very beneficial. It could also provide another source of matches for Habsburg progeny so maybe they aren't so inbred. But aside from that, I do think the Habsburgs would run into some problems with an independent Hungary, especially if it's not Louis II or one of his descendants with Mary of Austria on the throne.
 
I have to agree. If the Habsburgs don't control Hungary directly, then a surviving Jagiellon line in Hungary-Bohemia could be very beneficial.
A friendly Jagiellon neighbour would be definitely favoured compared to the hostile Ottomans, but a Jagiellon survival also means, that the Habsburgs don't acquire Bohemia, so its vote in the Imperial elections are not secured. Otherwise, Bohemia was extremely important source of income but also of manpower for the Austrian Habsburgs. I don't think much could be expected from the Austrian branch if they possess Austria alone. Especially since they tended to split the area up between the children.
But aside from that, I do think the Habsburgs would run into some problems with an independent Hungary, especially if it's not Louis II or one of his descendants with Mary of Austria on the throne.
Would they? Or rather, could they? Historically, Hungary was desperate for foreign support against the Turks, that's why the Treaty of 1506, the Jagiellon realignment to the Habsburgs happened in the first place. Szapolyai couldn't afford to be hostile towards the Habsburgs either, he would have much more pressing issues, such as the breech in the Southern fortline.
One thing I could see happening with this specific POD is the offer of the widowed Mary of Austria as a bride for Ján Zápolya.
That certainly sounds interesting. If I remember correctly, that was exactly what Szapolyai was planning. That's why he married so late OTL. It took some time for him to give up such ambitions.

Okay, if that's alright, then let's proceed with such marriage in mind! Szapolyai Hungary gradually comes to friendly terms with the Habsburgs, and thus the Eastern flank of the Habsburgs is mostly secure. What's next?
 
A friendly Jagiellon neighbour would be definitely favoured compared to the hostile Ottomans, but a Jagiellon survival also means, that the Habsburgs don't acquire Bohemia, so its vote in the Imperial elections are not secured. Otherwise, Bohemia was extremely important source of income but also of manpower for the Austrian Habsburgs. I don't think much could be expected from the Austrian branch if they possess Austria alone. Especially since they tended to split the area up between the children.

Would they? Or rather, could they? Historically, Hungary was desperate for foreign support against the Turks, that's why the Treaty of 1506, the Jagiellon realignment to the Habsburgs happened in the first place. Szapolyai couldn't afford to be hostile towards the Habsburgs either, he would have much more pressing issues, such as the breech in the Southern fortline.

That certainly sounds interesting. If I remember correctly, that was exactly what Szapolyai was planning. That's why he married so late OTL. It took some time for him to give up such ambitions.

Okay, if that's alright, then let's proceed with such marriage in mind! Szapolyai Hungary gradually comes to friendly terms with the Habsburgs, and thus the Eastern flank of the Habsburgs is mostly secure. What's next?
Not really, as I do not believe who Ján Zápolya was ever interested in marrying Mary of Austria but still close enough (as his matrimonial interest before Isabella of Poland was her cousin Anna of Bohemia and Hungary) so is possible who he would accept an offer of marrying Mary but is unlikely who the Habsburg would make such offer....
 
A friendly Jagiellon neighbour would be definitely favoured compared to the hostile Ottomans, but a Jagiellon survival also means, that the Habsburgs don't acquire Bohemia, so its vote in the Imperial elections are not secured.

That was not much problem after 1515 Congress of Vienna-Jagiellons promised to vote for Habsburg candidate anyway. And after secularisation of Teutonic Order in Prussia in 1525 that source of conflict between Emperor and Jagiellons ceased to exist too.
 
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Not really, as I do not believe who Ján Zápolya was ever interested in marrying Mary of Austria but still close enough (as his matrimonial interest before Isabella of Poland was her cousin Anna of Bohemia and Hungary)
The marriage proposal of Szapolyai to Mary historically happened in october 1526, when she was in Pozsony(Pressburg).
That was not much problem after 1515 Congress of Vienna-Jagiellons promised to vote for Habsburg candidate anyway.
For that election, yes. Or was that a general promise for all the coming elections?
 
The marriage proposal of Szapolyai to Mary historically happened in october 1526, when she was in Pozsony(Pressburg).
I had lost that part and in any case Mary slotted perfectly well in the middle of Anna and Isabella in regard of Szapolyai‘s matrimonial ambitions... unluckily for him Mary had NO intention to remarry ever
 
Szapolyai was, not for the first time, too ambitious in his matrimonial plans, Mary of Austria, just like her aunt, was not willing to ever marry again, and it was not the first time János failed to get royal bride (after being refused hand of Vladislaus II's daughter).
 
I know, there should be an explanation for such a thing as Hungary not falling to the Turks in such a scenario, but what I would want to mostly discuss about is the Habsburg capabilities and potential if they wouldn't had needed to deal with the Turks on a constant basis, but they also wouldn't had had the land and resources of Royal Hungary.

I know it's a tall order, but could we please handwave away the issue regarding Hungarian weakness and focus solely on the ITTL more "Western-oriented" Austrian Habsburgs?

If you see fit, the POD could be changed, I just wanted to assure, that the Habsburgs obtain Bohemia the same as OTL.

Its important to note that the Habsburgs werent the only ons fcusing on opposing the turks. the whole HRE was. Without a looming threat of Ottoman invasion the princes, bishops etc of the Empire will be much less inclined to work together with the emperor. So an even less united Empire from much earlier. It also robs the Habsburgs of the prestige of being the actual defenders of Christianity against the infidel.

For resources: Hungary was a net loss for Austria OTL in this period: creating, maintaining and manning the border fort system was a huge drain on the finances (I still think it was woth it as the alternates are much worse).

All in all im not sure how the Empire would look like without the Ottoman threat. The Habsburgs have more resources at their disposal to pour at the Empire in one hand but dont have the prestige boost and unifying effect of having a huge common enemy. France is a threat but they are christians and a lot harder to find common ground against plus they were already there OTL.

ps. Kingdom of Hungary if it comes without a need to fight the Ottomans would be a huge win for Austria.
 
I had lost that part and in any case Mary slotted perfectly well in the middle of Anna and Isabella in regard of Szapolyai‘s matrimonial ambitions... unluckily for him Mary had NO intention to remarry ever
That's true. Afaik Mary truly loved Louis. Otherwise, couldn't the greater political need force Mary to remarry anyway? Or that shouldn't be expected?
Szapolyai was, not for the first time, too ambitious in his matrimonial plans, Mary of Austria, just like her aunt, was not willing to ever marry again, and it was not the first time János failed to get royal bride (after being refused hand of Vladislaus II's daughter).
"Too ambitious" is a generally applicable description to Szapolyai, imo. Winning over the country would atleast give him a good bargaining position though.
Its important to note that the Habsburgs werent the only ons fcusing on opposing the turks. the whole HRE was. Without a looming threat of Ottoman invasion the princes, bishops etc of the Empire will be much less inclined to work together with the emperor. So an even less united Empire from much earlier. It also robs the Habsburgs of the prestige of being the actual defenders of Christianity against the infidel.
That is certainly something to consider. Would that mean, that more dukes and princes adopt protestantism? Then atleast the protestant threat might force the bishoprics and such to line up behind the Emperor. Or not?
For resources: Hungary was a net loss for Austria OTL in this period: creating, maintaining and manning the border fort system was a huge drain on the finances (I still think it was woth it as the alternates are much worse).
Financially certainly. Was the kingdom's manpower utilised outside of Hungary IOTL? I know of one example, the Schmalkadic War, when the Hungarian units allegedly played a key role, but I'm not sure how true is that.
All in all im not sure how the Empire would look like without the Ottoman threat. The Habsburgs have more resources at their disposal to pour at the Empire in one hand but dont have the prestige boost and unifying effect of having a huge common enemy. France is a threat but they are christians and a lot harder to find common ground against plus they were already there OTL.
The Catholic-Protestant divide could perhaps be even stronger than OTL. Could it maybe lead to an earlier "Thirty Years' War"? Or something like the French Religious Wars, but on steroids?
ps. Kingdom of Hungary if it comes without a need to fight the Ottomans would be a huge win for Austria.
Certainly, but such arrangement would be beyond impossible. Earlier Habsburg Hungary would be still much better than OTL. That's a matter for another thread though.
 
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