Would the French Revolution occur if ARW averted?

IMO, the French revolution as we know it was enabled by the calling of the Estates General. That was the King calling all the powers that wanted to undermine his authority and giving them control. It all spiraled downward for the monarchy and for France until Napoleon took over as a dictator.

Once a EG is called, it's game over for the Monarchy.

We talk about butterflies, but the King had the backing of no one. they tolerated him as long as he capitulated to them, which means no reform, and the same issues that caused the revolution OTL are still there. they are not butterflied away.

What changes is that you can delay the crisis so that the perfect storm of events isn't quite so perfect. The food crisis caused by unavoidable environmental factors are still there, but if you delay the economic crisis by several years (because France didn't spend like a drunken sailor aiding the American cause), you don't align the propertied class revolting because they don't want to pay taxes with a poverty class revolting because they have no food.

I don't think the revolution is inevitable. the causes are all still there, and there's going to be trouble, but getting all the ducks in a row to overthrow a system that's been in place for generations is (pardon the pun) revolutionary - ultra radical thought that only comes about in perfect conditions.
 
True, but declaring bankruptcy generally leads to nasty side-effects.

Yes. And besides, a majority of the representatives that were elected at the Estates General were people who refused to consider bankrupcy, although France was finally forced to go bankrupt and made a two thirds haircut in 1796.

That's quite a "funny" paradox.

Louis XVI summoned the Estates General that were going to deprive him of his power and later of all he cared for, because he refused to act against the financial interests of the nobility and the bourgeoisie who held the public debt that had become unsustainable without heavy tax hikes or debt haircut.

And the bourgeoisie and nobility did all they could, including some kind of Yeltsin-like privatization and political revolution up to the point of civil war in order to avoid the social categories they represented to be victims of bankrupcy on the public debt they held. And they finally did not avoid bankrupcy.
 
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Once a EG is called, it's game over for the Monarchy.

We talk about butterflies, but the King had the backing of no one. they tolerated him as long as he capitulated to them, which means no reform, and the same issues that caused the revolution OTL are still there. they are not butterflied away.

<snip>

Whilst I agree with you that such a scenario would involve significant changes, your claim that the minute the Estates General is called the French Monarchy was finished is a little simplistic.

Yes, Louis struggled to get the backing of a significant faction, but this was partly his own fault. There were, in the early 1789-1790 period, significant attempts by various groups to support his position at the head of the Revolution. Mirabeau particularly, whatever you think of his motivation, was committed to a more constitutional monarchy. Even during the March on Versailles popular sentiment is largely FOR the reform of the monarchy rather than the republic. Lafayette, as well as Mirabeau, are key until the chaos of 1791 - its not until Louis fails in his flight to Varennes and his anti-revolution letters are discovered that the Monarchy is truly doomed.

Also, whilst the American Revolution was an inspiration, its not as if there were no other examples. People have already posted about recent republics, but the two that the Revolutionaries loved to talk about the most were the Commonwealth in England and the Roman Republic. Most of the men in the National Convention had been classically educated - they lived and breathed Cato and Pliny and Cicero etc. The influence of ancient Rome, IMHO, was much more important than what was going on in the states, meaning that the ideological impetus for Revolution in France would still be there regardless of the ARW happening or not.
 
Reydan,
simplistic yes, but ultimately the truth. sure the king could have survived if he had been more decisive/competent/politically astute. but such a king wouldn't have had to summon the estates general in the first place. Once he called the EG, he handed all the power to everyone else. He might have gotten lucky and guessed at which side would come out on top and joined that side.

I concede that doomed is not inevitable, but not far from it, looking at it from hindsight
 
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