Would the B-36 be a magic bullet against Germany if they defeated the USSR?

[sloreck]

I am not saying that penny packets of B-29s to Europe was a good idea, it would not have been. I am saying Groves' expertise was in engineering and construction management - very talented but not an expert in "everything". BTW at one point in my life I was trained in targeting, and using nukes.

The point of using nukes was not to be better at the destruction of German economic targets, it was to city bust and shock the enemy in to submission - exactly the effect in Japan. The UK and the USA were certainly not averse to doing this, even if the idea was to destroy the city to destroy the industry/target because precision bombing wasn't doing this - think Dresden. If you are talking about an AANW Germany, or one where the eastern front is relatively quiet due to some sort of peace/armistice, or one where 2nd generation jets work without needing a new engine all the time and Wasserfall missiles work and are available in large numbers, then sure B-29s over Germany in 1945/46 are not going to work.

There are ways to mask the nuke carrying bomber, like a single plane at night or breaking off from a larger raid at a relatively close by city/target. These will work a couple of times before the Germans wise up. In any case if the war is going on in 1946 with a Germany not already in bad shape from conventional bombing and not drained and dealing with Russians advancing from the east and no western powers closer than Rome the strategic calculus is different.

 

[Hammerbolt]

There are ways to mask the nuke carrying bomber, like a single plane at night or breaking off from a larger raid at a relatively close by city/target. These will work a couple of times before the Germans wise up. In any case if the war is going on in 1946 with a Germany not already in bad shape from conventional bombing and not drained and dealing with Russians advancing from the east and no western powers closer than Rome the strategic calculus is different.

A single plane at night would be picked of with no problem. The only chance would be the mass-raid-with-hidden-nuke.

 

[Athelstane]

The point of using nukes was not to be better at the destruction of German economic targets, it was to city bust and shock the enemy in to submission - exactly the effect in Japan.

A Germany that's sitting on the Volga or the Urals is going to be pretty hard to shock into surrender with a couple of 20kt a-bombs, I'm afraid.

It worked on Japan because it already in extremely dire straits - cut off from its overseas empire, blockaded, most of its cities in ashes, virtually out of oil, nearly all of its navy converted to coral reefs. It didn't hurt that it happened at the exact same time as the Soviet Union invaded Manchuria.

 

[Captain Marvel]

A Germany that's sitting on the Volga or the Urals is going to be pretty hard to shock into surrender with a couple of 20kt a-bombs, I'm afraid.

It worked on Japan because it already in extremely dire straits - cut off from its overseas empire, blockaded, most of its cities in ashes, virtually out of oil, nearly all of its navy converted to coral reefs. It didn't hurt that it happened at the exact same time as the Soviet Union invaded Manchuria.

Hitler didn’t blink at Dresden and didn’t surrender even when the Red Army was within a mile of his bunker using heavy artillery at point blank range.

 

[viperjock]

The unsung heroes of this scenario are going to be piston engine fighter-bombers.
The USAAF and RAF tactical Air Forces are going to hammer German airfields before this timeline’s 509th Group arrived in England with Silverplate B-29s. Yes they are going to take casualties but the Allies are going to try their hardest to clear the Luftwaffe from the sky.
The Germans invent SAMs? The Americans and British invent flak suppression. German Flak units get introduced to Napalm. The Luftwaffe brings in Jets? Both P-51s and P-47s shot down ME-262s OTL. P-80s and Meteors can also be introduced.
The Germans could still face a two air front war. If North Africa is available you can hit the Nazis from there also.
Worst case scenario: Again if the war against Japan is wrapped up then you have carrier aviation. Add some Essex Class carriers and Royal Navy carriers to the mix. Send some air groups of Hellcats, Corsairs, Avengers and even crappy Helldivers over France and the Low Countries. Again you going to loose aircraft and pilots but the Luftwaffe is going to suffer in a battle of attrition.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

A Germany that's sitting on the Volga or the Urals is going to be pretty hard to shock into surrender with a couple of 20kt a-bombs, I'm afraid.

It worked on Japan because it already in extremely dire straits - cut off from its overseas empire, blockaded, most of its cities in ashes, virtually out of oil, nearly all of its navy converted to coral reefs. It didn't hurt that it happened at the exact same time as the Soviet Union invaded Manchuria.

Hitler didn’t blink at Dresden and didn’t surrender even when the Red Army was within a mile of his bunker using heavy artillery at point blank range.

Pretty much. That’s why if the bombs going to be used against Germany it’s going to be as part of the industrial campaign so as to facilitate the eventual ground invasion. Each series of atomic strikes probably is geared towards destroying specific sectors of German industry. One month it’s their oil complexes which gets vaporized, the next the ball-bearings go up in a mushroom cloud. Eventually all Germany would have left is it’s pre-existing stockpiles.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

A Germany that's sitting on the Volga or the Urals is going to be pretty hard to shock into surrender with a couple of 20kt a-bombs, I'm afraid.

....

That's why Plutonium production was aimed at 8-10 bombs in 1945, I 30-40 in 1946 & 100 + for 1947.

Of course using a nuke does not halt conventional air raids & other heavy bomber raids. The US continued conventional heavy bomber raids and carrier raids right up to Japans surrender.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Powerful enough that the Allied strategic bombing campaign would take far longer to establish air supremacy than it did IOTL in order for an amphibious landing to be pulled off successfully.

Are you certain of this?

 

[Wallet]

You.can.not.win.a.war.with.air.power.alone.

Thats just the basic rule of warfare. You need boots on the ground. Now, you can use bombers to level the beaches for the landing craft. But even if you level every German city an factory, you still need to slug your way to Berlin.

 

[Captain Marvel]

Are you certain of this?

Yes plus the fact that other knowledgeable posters on this site have provided good arguments in favor of the same in the past.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Powerful enough that the Allied strategic bombing campaign would take far longer to establish air supremacy than it did IOTL in order for an amphibious landing to be pulled off successfully.

Define “far longer”?

 

[Captain Marvel]

Define “far longer”?

Several years longer than OTL.

Another poster explained it better than I could in a similar thread:

Control of the "European" part of the USSR also provides the Reich with the one thing it lacked, true strategic depth. Move the factories East (can NOT be any more difficult that building massive tunnels to put things underground as IOTL) and the one real equalizer the WAllies have is off the table. Move factories (as was always envisioned) to General Government or to Russia and the Bomber Offensive ends. UK bomber bases to Moscow is at the B-29's max range (the Lancaster can't even get close it taps out near Vilnius, with the Lancaster's replacement, the Lincoln, not quite equaling the B-29). The B-32 can get a bit farther, but then you are dealing with the B-32... God have mercy on you. The CBO is effectively out of the strategic bombing of industrial business (as opposed to killing civilians) until the B-36 arrives. Even the B-29 missions flying past 1,000 miles radius are going to present a massive set of problems since there is no way you can get an escort out that far, the F-82 had a combat radius of around 950 miles, meaning that, at best, a deep penetration mission by B-29s would have had around 900 miles of unescorted flight time (three-four hours depending on speed during that part of the run) when the bombers would be hellishly vulnerable. Perhaps worse than the bomber losses would be the reality that the WAllies would not be able to do what was necessary to defeat the Luftwaffe IOTL, use the bombers as the anvil that the fighter jocks could hammer the Luftwaffe to bits against.

The B-29 was also far from invulnerable to interception. During the Korean War some 34 aircraft were lost flying against the relatively rudimentary ADZ of the DPRK. Even during WW II IJA pilots flying Ki-61 and Ki-84 had somesuccess, and that was with minimal radar support and low octane gasoline.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

If you launch from the UK, you don't need tankers.

Tankers for the AWACS, which I forgot to mention; to refuel accompanying fighters, and, if you have those crazy parasite fighters like the goblin, you're going to need to replenish the fuel in the motherships.

Oh, and you might have EW birds, antiradiation missile carriers, etc, etc.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Several years longer than OTL.

Another poster explained it better than I could in a similar thread:

Strikes me as overoptimisic. Moving the factories that further east then Poland is not really workable for the Germans. The labor supply, infrastructure, and resources are not cooperative. The labor supply is either revolting or genocided, the infrastructure is in ruins, and resource output is pitiful because of the former two issues. Sticking the factories in mountains is a much better option and even that has it's limits. I'd estimate it'd take no more then 2-3 additional years compared to OTL, which means the Luftwaffe is dead by 1946-47. And that's assuming the Luftwaffe actually bothers to take advantage of the breathing room between the end of operations in the east and the start of the CBO in 1943. If they immediately turn around and attempt Battle of Britain 2.0, which they might, then things become a lot harder for the Germans.

 

[Hammerbolt]

Several years longer than OTL.

Another poster explained it better than I could in a similar thread:

And don't forget all the resources that Germany was running out of in 1943/44, specially oil, which would now flow from the east. With plenty of fuel, the Luftwaffe can go back to "wasting" it in more traning hours...

Tankers for the AWACS, which I forgot to mention; to refuel accompanying fighters, and, if you have those crazy parasite fighters like the goblin, you're going to need to replenish the fuel in the motherships.

Oh, and you might have EW birds, antiradiation missile carriers, etc, etc.

Again, no need of you launch from the UK, if you just need to hit Germany. The heavies wil have plenty of extra fuel, and even the 1945 P-51 had enough to go in, fight and come back. And no one would be insane enough to air refuel over enemy territory without full air supremacy.

 

[Hammerbolt]

Strikes me as overoptimisic. Moving the factories that further east then Poland is not really workable for the Germans. The labor supply, infrastructure, and resources are not cooperative. The labor supply is either revolting or genocided, the infrastructure is in ruins, and resource output is pitiful because of the former two issues. Sticking the factories in mountains is a much better option and even that has it's limits. I'd estimate it'd take no more then 2-3 additional years compared to OTL, which means the Luftwaffe is dead by 1946-47. And that's assuming the Luftwaffe actually bothers to take advantage of the breathing room between the end of operations in the east and the start of the CBO in 1943. If they immediately turn around and attempt Battle of Britain 2.0, which they might, then things become a lot harder.

Depends on how early the diversion starts. And don't forget, no more war in the east means hundreds more fighters available over Germany.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

And don't forget all the resources that Germany was running out of in 1943/44, specially oil, which would now flow from the east. With plenty of fuel, the Luftwaffe can go back to "wasting" it in more traning hours...

The devastated East would only prove to be such a boon in Hitler's deepest fantasies. Maikop and Grozny would be devastated and difficult to restart sufficient production. By comparison, re-establishing production at Baku is easy... the big problem is transporting it back to Germany for refining, with the transport infrastructure all torn up. On the whole, the East would prove to be a giant net drain German resources.

Depends on how early the diversion starts. And don't forget, no more war in the east means hundreds more fighters available over Germany.

Sure, and that means it'll take a few more years. I don't see the final outcome really being any different though.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

And don't forget all the resources that Germany was running out of in 1943/44, specially oil, which would now flow from the east. With plenty of fuel, the Luftwaffe can go back to "wasting" it in more traning hours...



Again, no need of you launch from the UK, if you just need to hit Germany. The heavies wil have plenty of extra fuel, and even the 1945 P-51 had enough to go in, fight and come back. And no one would be insane enough to air refuel over enemy territory without full air supremacy.

Germany, sure. Poland, the Ukraine, European Russia?

And, ya, the air supremacy is why you need all those fighters, ...

 

[lordroel]

If the Reich successfully defeated the USSR and occupied it up to the Urals (like in Fatherland and AANW) would B-36 bombers (as flawed as they were) armed with nuclear bombs really be a plausible solution for the WAllies to win the war against a far more powerful Germany/Wehrmacht if they chose to continue it?

What year would they have enough B-36s to use against a Reich in control of continental Europe and no major fighting in the East to suck up resources?

Have you ever read the The Big One by stuart slade, there the B-36 is heavy involved in nuking Germany.

 

[M79]

US has a heavy bomber in the Douglas XB-19 that can make 12km altitude in 1941 and should be able to carry the Bomb with the range to do the job. Especially if the engines are improved over time.