Uncle Ruckus
Banned
So lets assume that the war goes worse for the Soviets in 1941/42 than OTL. By early 1943 there is Civil War/Rebellion mirroring the situation in 1917 and the Soviets get a Brest-Litovsk style unfavorable peace with the Volga or the Urals as the new border. In the meantime the Western Allies clear North Africa. What are the changes from mid 1943 onwards?
The Allies cant invade Italy or Europe. Even if the Germans have to keep 80 divisions in the East instead of the planned 50, the Wallies are facing an additional 80 first class divisions and would need 200+ divisions to even attempt an invasion. Of course if they draft so many soldiers this will affect production and supply of personell for the Navy/Air force. The British were scraping the barell of their manpower by late 1943 anyways.
Without an Eastern Front the Germans save a lot of fuel, tanks, guns, ammunition, supplies, personell, so their ground forces would be substantionally stronger than OTL. German production of weapons would also accelerate because conscription in the second half of 1943 and 1944 would be minimal (the existing army would be sufficient enough + a fraction of OTL losses) meaning more people for the factories. The Germans can also invest more scientists and engineers into AA weapons development (R4M, Waterfall) and the Luftwaffe has more fuel and aircraft(no air war in Russia).
It is very unlikely that the Wallies would continue the war under these circumstances, especially considered the fact that 99.99% of their population dont know about the bomb. The US has a war with Japan going on as well, so Generals and Admirals will demand more soldiers and materiel for the Pacific since Europe cant be invaded anyways. Public Opinion will slowly shift to a negotiated peace forcing Roosevelt to either accept reality or face defeat in the elections of 1944 against a Republican candidate promising the people to end the senseless war in Europe. And there is of course the fact that Roosevelt dies in April 1945 anyway and Truman will under no circumstances restart a war in Europe which has been cooling down or stalemated for the last two years.
And we havent even started to talk about the British which will be bombed much more from mid 1943 onwards than OTL and again even more from mid 1944.
The Allies cant invade Italy or Europe. Even if the Germans have to keep 80 divisions in the East instead of the planned 50, the Wallies are facing an additional 80 first class divisions and would need 200+ divisions to even attempt an invasion. Of course if they draft so many soldiers this will affect production and supply of personell for the Navy/Air force. The British were scraping the barell of their manpower by late 1943 anyways.
Without an Eastern Front the Germans save a lot of fuel, tanks, guns, ammunition, supplies, personell, so their ground forces would be substantionally stronger than OTL. German production of weapons would also accelerate because conscription in the second half of 1943 and 1944 would be minimal (the existing army would be sufficient enough + a fraction of OTL losses) meaning more people for the factories. The Germans can also invest more scientists and engineers into AA weapons development (R4M, Waterfall) and the Luftwaffe has more fuel and aircraft(no air war in Russia).
It is very unlikely that the Wallies would continue the war under these circumstances, especially considered the fact that 99.99% of their population dont know about the bomb. The US has a war with Japan going on as well, so Generals and Admirals will demand more soldiers and materiel for the Pacific since Europe cant be invaded anyways. Public Opinion will slowly shift to a negotiated peace forcing Roosevelt to either accept reality or face defeat in the elections of 1944 against a Republican candidate promising the people to end the senseless war in Europe. And there is of course the fact that Roosevelt dies in April 1945 anyway and Truman will under no circumstances restart a war in Europe which has been cooling down or stalemated for the last two years.
And we havent even started to talk about the British which will be bombed much more from mid 1943 onwards than OTL and again even more from mid 1944.