Would the atomic bomb be a magic bullet against Germany if they defeated the USSR?

[machine3589]

U-Boats won't force the USA to sign, nor would the few 'Amerika bombers' they could build.

That's a strawman. And it is quite indicative that you are ignoring the slight issue that when the USSR falls the allies have no conventional way of winning an invasion of of the continent unless they're willing to bear the cost the USSR paid in men.

Come August

Come August 1945., three full years after the fall of the USSR, spent waiting in the hopes of a weapon that might theoretically help them win the war.

 

[interpoltomo]

No. If they pull it off they win.

He who controls the heartland controls the world island. He who controls the world island controls the world.

 

[Gremlin]

Question is - Once the allies have nuked Berlin, Essen, etc... are they ready to reign nuclear fire on Amsterdam, Paris, Rome and any other occupied and culturally signifigant city that the Reich has use of?

 

[wcv215]

No. If they pull it off they win.

He who controls the heartland controls the world island. He who controls the world island controls the world.

That's an outdated and nonsensical theory which has no bearing on reality.

 

[Kippari]

It would be irrational of the allies to bomb the very same people they are trying to liberate. What would be the point? Kill potentially millions in western Europe to save millions in the eastern part. Good thinking! Except for the utter stupidity of it. It just achieves nothing and would make FDR/Truman the biggest mass murderer and the most reviled person in history instead of Hitler.

Japan’s situation as already posited in this thread was completely different. They were already isolated into the main islands, not to mention their navy had been sunk and their main army and occupied land holdings overrun by Soviet forces so superior at that point that there simply was no alternative but to surrender. Germany can keep moving its’ troops and civilians to France, low countries etc. and use populations from those areas as meat shields in Germany proper.

 

[History Learner]

Another thing to consider is the occupation of the USSR would be a huge manpower soak in and of itself. The real world isn't Hearts of Iron and Nazi Germany would benefit from it less than you might think.

General estimates I've seen are 400,000 to 1,000,000 for occupation and that's far less than the average 2.5 million maintained until the end of 1943.

 

[interpoltomo]

That's an outdated and nonsensical theory which has no bearing on reality.

please explain why it's outdated or nonsensical, the geography of the world hasn't changed

 

[thorr97]

Well, if the Soviet Union falls - say by mid to late '42 - then the only thing in the US with a higher production priority than the B-36 would be the Manhattan Project. All the dithering about whether or not the "Hemisphere Defense Bomber" was necessary would have been immediately put paid to by Germany's victory in the East.

It'd also make for an interesting difference in the Manhattan Project in general. I wonder if it could've been sped up? The various Soviet spies in the program would now no longer have any masters to report to. Were they, in OTL, ever instructed to "slow things down" lest the US get The Bomb and use it in Europe? That wouldn't be the case here. And with an even higher priority then perhaps the availability of The Bomb might be higher.

At the least, the priority for strategic bombing aircraft would be higher. Recognizing that the bulk of those troops formerly fighting the Soviets would soon be deployed to the West Wall would give Allied planners even less enthusiasm for opening that "Second Front" across the Channel. Instead, "crushing the German war machine from above" would be preferred. The Allies had the advantage in that campaign and it consumed fewer men in prosecuting it. Best then to accelerate it rather than try to get ashore and fight with all those "new" Wehrmacht divisions "fresh" from the Eastern Front.

So, an even more vigorously prosecuted air campaign against Nazi Germany would ensue. That, along with a shift in ground forces to at least deny the Germans the fruits of the Caucuses. That would, at least, keep the Germans from getting loose in the Middle East via Persia's backdoor.

An interesting shift could be the reallocation of all those ground forces formerly slated for Overlord and have them wind up in the Pacific first. This, in recognition that storming ashore against Germany was a non-starter in '43 and '44. Wrap things up in Asia against the Japanese first and that would then allow the true concentration of forces. Drive the IJA out of China by '44 and then "liberate" Vladivostok from the rump USSR. "Recognize" the "Federal Democratic Republic of Free Russia" as being the new government of what's left of the USSR and then push west from there. This, to at least deny the Nazis from grabbing a presence in the Pacific. And to also get bases in range of bombing Germany from the east. Given the genocide that the Nazis would've been employing by that time, I don't think the Russian people would complain too much about no longer being under Soviet control.

Then, come '45 the Atomic Rain would start.

No, I don't think knocking off one or two of Germany's cities would cause the Reich to collapse and sue for peace. A sustained campaign of conventional bombing and opening cans of Instant Sunshine on appropriate targets however, would. Dropping a few Mark IIIs on Ploesti would be one initial target. Starving Germany of the resources it needed to wage its war would be the objective. So, hammering around the edges of the Reich - and thus avoiding the worst of its air defenses - would be a good approach. This, especially once the US had its Bomb production lines up and running fully. After that, the Allies could adopt a "city a day" approach to using The Bomb. And if that wasn't sufficient, they could turn the dial to "11" by adopting a "cities per day" approach.

 

[History Learner]

A USSR that's fallen means Germany can devote significantly more resources to aircraft and air defences. America might be able to do it, but it's going to be a costly victory. Germany is also also holding the rest of Europe hostage and can still make a mess of London. I think the cost is either too high or the Axis achieves parity in the air.

Existing Flak guns could reach the maximum altitude of the B-29. If the USSR is knocked out in 1941 or 1942, you'd also probably be able to get significant numbers of He-280s in play by 1943.

 

[wcv215]

please explain why it's outdated or nonsensical, the geography of the world hasn't changed

Because it has no evidence backing it. The "geography" of the world being the way it is doesn't support the theory in any sense. At no point in world history has it been supported by events.

 

[Captain Marvel]

General estimates I've seen are 400,000 to 1,000,000 for occupation and that's far less than the average 2.5 million maintained until the end of 1943.

Estimates from the Reich or estimates from historians/experts?

 

[History Learner]

Estimates from the Reich or estimates from historians/experts?

IIRC, the Reich speculated about 400,000 to 500,000 although most other considerations on the issue I've seen view that as a lower end although plausible. Highest I have seen though is definitely about a million.

 

[Captain Marvel]

IIRC, the Reich speculated about 400,000 to 500,000 although most other considerations on the issue I've seen view that as a lower end although plausible. Highest I have seen though is definitely about a million.

It most likely would be less manpower and resources than fighting the actual war itself.

 

[thorr97]

Existing Flak guns could reach the maximum altitude of the B-29. If the USSR is knocked out in 1941 or 1942, you'd also probably be able to get significant numbers of He-280s in play by 1943.

Hmm... That doesn't square with what I've read.

Specifically, that the British tried running their B-17s into Germany at 30,000 feet altitudes and found they were essentially untouchable by German AAA. The shells simply couldn't get up to them at that altitude. Six miles straight up is no small feat even today. What held the WAllies back from running all their missions into Germany at that altitude was that neither the B-17s nor B-24s - nor Halifaxes or Lancasters - could handle operating at those rarefied stratospheric altitudes. The planes could get up to that altitude but their range was greatly diminished, their payloads greatly reduced, and the engines were streaming oil out of every gasket.

B-29s would've been in their element at that altitude however. They'd have been far, far above almost all of Germany's flak. I've no doubt the Luftgaukommandos would, eventually, deploy some large caliber flak guns but those would have to be immense things in large fixed emplacements and very specialized weapon systems. Thus, they'd be nowhere as numerous as what the WAllies encountered in OTL. So the B-29s would experience nowhere near like the volume of fire the 88s could throw up.

And then, just a year or two after the B-29s are over the Reich in force the B-36s show up and their operational ceiling is a good couple of miles even higher than what the Boeing machines could manage.

I think, instead, you'd see the Germans push harder for SAM and the high altitude capable interceptors they never quite got around to in OTL.

 

[History Learner]

It most likely would be less manpower and resources than fighting the actual war itself.

Basically you're freeing anywhere from 1.5 to 2 million Germans for duty elsewhere. I personally think they can get by with 500,000 given the partisan threat will decline without Moscow and the minor Axis can be used effectively to help garrison the place; matter of fact, it's a far better place to put them then fighting Anglo-Americans.

Hmm... That doesn't square with what I've read.

Specifically, that the British tried running their B-17s into Germany at 30,000 feet altitudes and found they were essentially untouchable by German AAA. The shells simply couldn't get up to them at that altitude. Six miles straight up is no small feat even today. What held the WAllies back from running all their missions into Germany at that altitude was that neither the B-17s nor B-24s - nor Halifaxes or Lancasters - could handle operating at those rarefied stratospheric altitudes. The planes could get up to that altitude but their range was greatly diminished, their payloads greatly reduced, and the engines were streaming oil out of every gasket.

B-29s would've been in their element at that altitude however. They'd have been far, far above almost all of Germany's flak. I've no doubt the Luftgaukommandos would, eventually, deploy some large caliber flak guns but those would have to be immense things in large fixed emplacements and very specialized weapon systems. Thus, they'd be nowhere as numerous as what the WAllies encountered in OTL. So the B-29s would experience nowhere near like the volume of fire the 88s could throw up.

And then, just a year or two after the B-29s are over the Reich in force the B-36s show up and their operational ceiling is a good couple of miles even higher than what the Boeing machines could manage.

I think, instead, you'd see the Germans push harder for SAM and the high altitude capable interceptors they never quite got around to in OTL.

The 8.8 cm Flak 41 has an effective ceiling of 35,000 feet and maximum of 49,000 feet, so it's possible to still get hits on formations that high. The distance issue is a problem, but the Germans were working on subcalibre and rocket-assisted Flak shells at the end of the war to rectify this and they can likely be expedited. Never mind the jet fighters and AA missiles that can be added too. Either way, however, operating that high basically means strategic bombing, both conventional and nuclear, ineffective.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

It could be done, but would be difficult and involve some quite costly strategies. Deploying the Fast Carrier Task Force against targets in France would be difficult to counter.

Using nuclear weapons in a piecemeal fashion would not play to Allied strengths and they could well be better off building up their arsenal for one big knock-out blow. Massed conventional B-29 raids from Britain, the Near East and North Africa could focus German defences at a certain level, along with RAF Lincolns and Mossies at night, followed by B-36s with atom bombs hitting 30+ targets in a single attack.

 

[jamesownz]

Let say UUSR quits in August 42.

3 years until the bomb... Do the Allies and Germany just shake their fists at each other?

Allies would have to invade France or Italy at some point right? Leaving millions of their soldiers dead.

Would they be willing to nuke Berlin, Munich, Paris, Rome, Warsaw?

I just think peace is made before all that...maybe after 5-10 years all occupied nations revolt and start WW3 though

 

[fockewulf]

The Germans can build bombers too. The Do-217 could carry up to 3000kg of bombs internally. There is a lot of space in the east to store a lot of planes, and enough fuel and manpower to build up a credible force. GBR is a small target that can be attacked from many directions. The nights will be very busy for the British people. And after the guided bombs are starting to appear in quantity, the raids accuracy increases a lot. They can also start mining British waters, more naval aviation, all this combined with u-boots, and you can see the deal. Above all that there is no Eastern front to keep the bulk of the German forces busy and no magic weapon in sight. Guess who is now the next, no, the only target left?
The remaining non-aligned countries will join the Axis or follow those who didn't in the oblivion. They don't have to contribute with troops, just with transit rights, military bases and rare materials. Volunteers are welcomed of course.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

The Luftwaffe did not succeed in 1940 and are unlikely to change that in 1943, 1944 or 1945, even without an active Eastern Front.

Germany cannot compete with Britain (and Canada) and the United States in sheer numbers of bombers, which will be striking at them day and night.

If attacks come during the day, the RAF could put up over 2000 fighters in such a situation and the USAAF can easily double that, if not more so if Japan has been sorted.

If they come at night, there are more and better night-fighters than 1940/41. Quite a few thousand 3.7" and 90mm with VT shells and improved radar guidance are also rather more capable than the early war defences.

They would do a lot of damage by weight of numbers over time, certainly, but it would not be decisive.

 

[bernardz]

One point is that by 1946, the allies will have V1s too plus they would have large fleets of conventual bombers as well.

I could see a nuclear bomb being used by the allies against German underground factories and oil plants. What about the ball bearing plants?