Would the atomic bomb be a magic bullet against Germany if they defeated the USSR?

[sloreck]

There will be several interesting questions about what to do in the postwar world. Germany (and Japan) in a war where Russia folds in later 1942 still are on the wrong end of everything. IMHO Japan is marginalized by 1945 blockaded and starving and any overseas conquests like DEI and SEA being chipped away and/or left to whither like many Pacific Islands. Assuming as soon as the first bomb explodes somewhere in Germany Heisenberg has his revelation, so what - it will take Germany years to make a bomb even if they are given the design for both types they don't have the infrastructure to produce fissile material and that will take years to build, and there are lots of fiddly details even Heisenberg's revelation won't help with. Germany loses.

The USSR: Many millions have died over OTL in any Soviet territory the Reich has run from 1942 up until war's end 1946-48. Many more will die until things stabilize, and the place is a wasteland. Will the Ukraine be free - well the question is how badly has any potential Ukrainian independence movement been tainted by Nazi collaboration. The same applies in any other territory outside the RSFSR that has been under Nazi rule. The "stans" have not been Nazi occupied, and have remained under whatever government the USSR/Russia had, and they really don't have what it takes to break away even from a weakened Russia. Certainly what was taken from Poland goes back, the Baltics are freed (issues with helping with the Holocaust there however). Finland may or may not get back what it lost in 1939...certainly not more.
German Allies: Italy, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria. Things don't end well for them. Any territories Italy has outside of Italy, gone. Borders revert to prewar, and they may lose bits to neighbors who sided with the Allies. Needless to say war crime trials and complete governmental reconstruction.
"Victims": I expect there will be humanitarian aid, however not on the level of the Marshall Plan as there is no need for rapid reconstruction against the Soviet bogeyman. Will there be an Israel, maybe - there will be many fewer survivors in Europe than OTL sadly.
Germany: Anschluß undone, and I expect you may see Germany broken in to a few smaller states on traditional lines. The Germanies will be run by the victors for a long time, and other than police and a coast guard for those states with a coastline you won't see any German militaries.
Japan: Pretty much along OTL lines, without the Soviet menace and the Korean War industrial reconstruction will take much longer.
China: Will be a mess. Mao won't win, but the issues that supported revolution don't go away
"Colonialism": The colonial powers will be weaker than OTL. The USA will also have zero reasons to prop up France in SEA or anyone else. Ho will probably create a socialist Vietnam, nobody will be alarmed by that. The only colonial issue I see being truly nasty is Algeria - whi knows what happens there.

Just some thoughts.

 

[thorr97]

Sloreck & all,

I really don't think the Soviet Union would be in any position to demand anything back from anyone. The USSR might not even exist at all. Given that the Nazis would've had at least three years from this POD to apply their kulturkampf against the "untermenschen of the East" it'd be pretty amazing if an actual Communist state existed in Russia at all. Taking a cue from their OTL treatment of the Soviets and what CalBear detailed in his AANW, I think the Nazis would insist on a "de-Communization" of Russia and the handing over of an ever increasing number of Soviet leaders and Communist Party officials. In OTL the Nazis applied that to the Soviet territories they conquered and we can see their treatment of Red Army POWs fulfilling that as well. While the future prospects of any Red Army soldier were dim ones once in Nazi hands, the future prospects for any Commissars were far more immediate - summary execution being mandated by Hitler.

The Germans would have a balancing to achieve here. Ideally, for them, they'd rid all of Russia of its Communists and then rid it of all its Slavs and other untermenschen. But they were also busy fighting a world war so they couldn't afford to immediately accomplish their cherished genocidal goals. They desperately needed to extract as many troops and resources out of the East to confront the Allies in the West so an immediate and complete take over of all of the USSR was simply not possible. But they also couldn't afford to leave the Soviets to their own devices as they knew they'd do everything they could to rebuild and come right back at the Reich. Hence the Nazi's need to decimate and dismember the USSR.

There's also the Nazi's unhinged desire for enacting its evil no matter that effect on its warfighting capability. The priority and amount of resources the Nazis allocated to "solving the Jewish problem" was insane for a country fighting for its very existence against enemies that so vastly outnumbered it. Yet, no matter how badly the troops needed the supplies and reinforcements that required rail transport, the trains to the Vernichtungslagers always had higher priority. Thus it's reasonable to assume that, despite the resources and men desperately needed to face the Allies, the Nazis would ensure there was enough men and support available to have their way in what was left of the Soviet Union. This, no matter how that weakened their strength to the West.

Among other things to consider there is Vladivostok.

The Japanese had long sought direct access to German equipment but the route was always blocked by its enemies. With the fall of the Soviet Union, that would no longer be the case. And with the Nazis now calling whatever shots they wanted to call in the conquered USSR, they'd definitely want Vladivostok for their own. Setting up shop over there would ensure that no Western supplies could be slipped in to rearm the Russians and would give the Reich a presence in the Pacific that they'd not have to share with the Japanese. In 1942 there'd be damn all the Allies could do about that either. By 1945 however, that would be different. At that point, it'd be both possible and mandatory, in fact, for the Allies to seize Vladivostok in order to neutralize the Kreigsmarine's activities there. Perhaps the Germans would've shipped over and assembled some U-boats to operate from there as well. Thus all the more reason to grab it for the Allies. Then, come this war's end, why would the Allies hand back that port facility to a resurgent USSR? You can bet there'd suddenly be a newly formed "Democratic Republican Republic Constitutional Federal State of Free and Non-Communist East Siberia" coming into existence. And it'd be immediately recognized as the legitimate government of the region by the Allies. Again, with generous basing rights for the Allies included.

I could easily see the post-war USSR being little more than the territory around Moscow. This, if the Allies even allowed it to reform at all.

Another thing to consider in all of this is what an absolute boon to the IJA the defeat of the Soviet Union is going to be. The Germans would be needful of a quick way to disarm the Soviets and while the Wehrmacht was actually quite good at incorporating other country's hardware into its own use, too much of what the Soviets produced was simply unsuitable for Germany's use. A lot of it would be taken up for scrap value to be melted down and turned into new Tigers and 88s and so on. But of the rest? It'd be insane to just leave those weapons laying around in Russia for the Russians to grab. Instead, the Germans would most likely sell the things off to the Japanese.

Suddenly now, the Japanese would have as many Soviet tanks as they could possibly handle! And the Allies would get the answer to how well Shermans and Churchills dealt with T-34s and KV-1s. Selling those off to the Japanese would hugely benefit the IJA and it would thoroughly disarm the Russians at the same time. That would make any Allied operations in China more complex but there'd be little change to the island hoping campaign as the Japanese had an enormous amount of difficulty shipping out even what little armor they had in OTL to their island garrisons. Shipping a vehicle as heavy as a T-34 or KV out there would be vastly more difficult. But where they could get them by rail and across from Vladivostok and Korea to the Home Islands, they would. Same same with all other Soviet hardware the Germans set about seizing.

I think it'd be an open question whether or not the Nazis kept any Soviet factories running or just sold off the existing stocks for spare parts to the Japanese. I think that's more likely as the Nazis would most likely demolish the Soviet factories to seize what materials they could for their own use while also ensuring the Russians couldn't then produce anything further on their own. And even taking Nazi inefficiency into account, their having two or three years to enforce this would have had its effect by this war's end.

So we could very well see a post-war incarnation of the USSR being but a true "rump state" in which the Allies used the threat of withholding food supplies to ensure that they remained out of Moscow's control. The new Communist Russia - if it was even allowed to exist at all - would have been so systemically weakened by the Nazi occupation that it couldn't contest such a move by the Allies. And with the Nazis making sure to have well publicized all the thousands of gulag camps they made sure to uncover throughout the former Soviet Union, there'd be damn little public support for treating a new Communist state in Russia any different.

 

[sloreck]

Even if the T-34s (early models - 1942) and KV-1s AND lots of spare parts show up in Japanese hands in Manchuria, so what. The Japanese have to train to operate these, and maintain them. They can move them to the Home Islands, but moving any more than a small number to Okinawa or elsewhere is not happening. OK they are in place, crewed and mechanics are trained, and they have factories diverted from making their normal munitions to make the calibers needed for the Russian gear. Russian factories won't be making much of this for Japan, they'll be making stuff for Germany if anything at all. Lets hand wave all of that away. It leaves just one teeny tiny little problem FUEL. Where do the Japanese get the fuel to drive these suckers around, first to train the crews in operating them and then in combat. Any petroleum the Nazis manage to extract from the occupied areas after 1942, and it won't be much, is going to go to Germany. By 1943 and later Japan was terribly short of fuel, and what are they NOT going to fuel to fuel tanks?

 

[thorr97]

Sloreck,

True enough with the fuel but the Japanese would've jumped at the chance to suddenly have all that heavy armor that they were so intent on developing themselves. And as I mentioned above, very little of it would translate out to the island garrisons. Now, plenty of no longer wanted (by the Germans, that is) weaponry would prove useful for the Japanese. Plenty of Soviet artillery and ammunition, for instance. Turkey would be another customer. As would Italy and all the other Axis powers. The Germans would've had no small incentive for demilitarizing the former Soviet Union as much as possible.

I could see the Germans adopting a policy of carting away entire Soviet factories and moving them west into Poland. There they'd still be far enough away from Allied bases to be largely bomber-proof. At least until the B-29s got into the show. And the Germans could extract all the Soviet factory workers they needed to run those factories so there'd be no need to relocate the German workers. And bringing in the Russian workers would further weaken what was left of the former Soviet Union and further deny it of its skilled labor force. Yeah, it'd take a while for those factories to be fully stood up and made functional. Particularly to German standards, not Russian. So they'd be a net loss, resource-wise, until then. But they'd still be denied to the Russians and that would've been the overall goal for the Reich. At this war's end, Poland could therefore wind up with a significantly greater industrial complex than it started. And those factories wouldn't have gotten as much attention from the 8th as would the Ruhr's industrial infrastructure.

Scattered through the Reich would also likely be a vastly increased number of "tank turret pillboxes" using former Soviet tank turrets. Not a perfect logistical thing for the German but, again, better than leaving the weapons in Russia for the Russians to get hold of them.

 

[sloreck]

I think there is conflating two different issues here. One is what the Germans would get from looting/battlefield salvage and the other is "reparations" from whatever Soviet entity is east of the new border. Factories in areas where there has been fighting have been destroyed and/or sabotaged to a greater or lesser extent, and some have been evacuated east of the Urals before the surrender. In terms of things like artillery, vehicles, and tanks, it is going to take a significant effort to rehabilitate those that are damaged and salvage those unrepairable for spare parts (and btw then catalog the spare parts sorting them for further use). In terms of moving factories west to Poland, this now becomes a major transportation issue - the rail system between the Polish border and the new USSR/Reich border is in very bad shape, and moving a factory takes a lot of rail cars (in short supply), and don't forget the ever present issue of the gauge change between the USSR and the west. While you may have a supply of slave labor, the dismantling and packing up of factories for removal west will not be as fast and efficient with slaves as it was when it was Soviet workers fighting for the country. A few key bits go missing or are mispacked/mislabeled and there goes output. My point is that getting significant output from captures Soviet industry, whether in place or transported is going to take well over a year, more likely two - and frankly doing all that to produce stuff for Japan is low on the list of things the Germans would do.

In terms of reparations from the rump USSR, the problem with letting them produce military goods in quantity is that it uses up resources Germany could use, and how many inspectors would you need to ensure none of this stuff falls off the truck as they say. Every ton of steel going to make some Soviet design gear for the Japanese is a ton that doesn't make U-boats or panzers. All the raw materials and machine tools the USSR got to fill critical gaps via LL, not happening here. If the USSR is not fighting Germany or Japan the Allies are not sending squat.

Japan cannot make spare parts and ammunition for Soviet gear without shorting production earmarked for its own gear - which was limited at best. Adding more parts and ammunition to the already under resourced and over stretched shambolic Japanese logistic system from factory to fighter is not a plus. Counting on timely arrival in to Japanese hands of Soviet produced spare parts and ammunition as part of reparations is a poor bet, and don't even start about quality control issues.

I will give you that some Soviet tanks and other weapons will go to China, and some to the home islands. Places like Okinawa and Iwo Jima may get some, but by the time the USA assaults those islands the tanks will be buried bunkers and not mobile, no fuel. Likewise most of any Soviet armor on the Home Islands will be turned in to bunkers, and whatever formations remain mobile will be relatively useless as if OLYMPIC and CORONET happen Allied tactical air will rip exposed tanks to pieces, as by that point there is no Japanese air force except for limited air defenses and kamikazes.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Some in this thread have asserted that with the fall of the USSR, Turkey, Spain, and even Portugal would be compelled to join the Axis. "They would have no choice" - presumably because of the threat of German invasion.

There are three obvious counterexamples: Finland in 1939, Greece in 1940, and Yugoslavia in 1941. All three defied a much greater power, even at risk of national destruction. Yugoslavia defied Germany at nearly the height of German power, rather than join the Axis, with no hope of support from Britain.

Now suppose that Germany demands that Turkey, Spain, or Portugal declare war on the US and Britain in 1943 - or else. Firstly, none of these countries have anything to gain by such an action, and a great deal to lose. All would be exposed to Allied invasion and air attack, and would be devastated in the resulting fighting.

Yes, they could also be devastated by German invasion. But the Allies would have (IMO) at least as much power in the area. Also, the Allies control these countries' access to resources from outside Europe, whereas Germany is short of everything.

If a country which wants to stay out of war is forced by one side to join in and be caught up in the fighting, which side would it choose? The side that is threatening invasion, and forcing this choice, or the other side? Even Spain, which had a large pro-Axis faction, might bridle at such blatant coercion by Germany. Turkey and Portugal certainly would.

 

[lordroel]

Yes

Second that, especially if the United States field the B-36 which can reach Germany from basses safe inside the United States.

 

[fasquardon]

If Germany beats Russia the Manhattan project s going to be rushed.

Why would that be so? In OTL, the US did not expect the Soviets to last much longer than France against the Germans and they expected to have the bomb before they were ready to invade anyway... AND the US did a whole pile of work that wasn't necessary. The US basically followed every path to the bomb all at once, rather than the most efficient route, which both the British and the French had figured out before the war, so it wasn't exactly hard to know the best path to the bomb... But the US quite deliberately chose a resource-intensive super-deliberate super-thorough way to develop the bomb. Given that they were going slower than they could in OTL and thought they'd have much more need of nukes than they did in OTL, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say them trying to rush in TTL is highly unlikely.

fasquardon

 

[SrBEERnal]

Why we are implying that a German Reich would extend from Calais to the Urals? I don't see the German Troops going east from the Volga river or Nizny Novgorod at least, fuck, i don't see Moscu falling or Astrakan at least

 

[King Augeas]

I think people are making assumptions based on OTL, where all the evidence is that, if the Soviets were going down, they were going down fighting. Hence even if Germany takes Leningrad in 1941 and Stalingrad in 1942, they'll still need a further campaign in 1943 to deal with Moscow before there's any chance of Soviet resistance collapsing - at which point Germany has already lost the air war in the Med/West.

The alternative is some sort of political collapse that causes the Soviets to cut a deal. In this case, yes, we'd be unlikely to see Germany troops far east, because they wouldn't have had time to get that far before the ceasefire. But cutting a deal like that seems to require fundamental changes to the Soviet leadership.

 

[fasquardon]

Why we are implying that a German Reich would extend from Calais to the Urals? I don't see the German Troops going east from the Volga river or Nizny Novgorod at least, fuck, i don't see Moscu falling or Astrakan at least

Because the OP explicitly specified that Germany reaches the Urals:

In a scenario similar to AANW where the Reich has defeated the USSR and occupied it up to the Urals due to a successful Barbarossa/Case Blue

Needless to say, it's not remotely plausible, but that's not what the OP's question was about, so we're just running with it.

fasquardon

 

[Johnrankins]

If Germany beats Russia the Manhattan project s going to be rushed. That could lead to mistakes, perhaps serious ones, in Tennessee. But the bomb is made, it works and Germany is effectively nuked into non-existence. The Western allies take control of all Germany, pledging to help Russia rebuild-without Stalin, who is presumably dead. Japan is also nuked-or, perhaps seeing the writing on the wall, Hirohito sues for peace (although whether or not he'd survive a coup is debatable). Result: No Soviet expansion into Eastern Europe and no "Iron Curtain."
There's still a revolution or prolonged civil war in China, but the US presses Chiang Kai Shek to make peace with the Communists, who ditch Mao without Soviet support and create a rump socialist state (Mongolia?) Result: No Korean war, & probably a shorter conflict in Vietnam for the French.
I'm not sure about post-war politics-things are probably much the same in Britain and the US. The Conservatives still lose in Britain & Truman still becomes President. Does he run again in 1948?

Why would the US pressure Kai Shek to make peace with the Communists? More likely it would help him crush Mao. Without a USSR and the US and UK being the only Great Powers remaining on the planet Mao is going down. No rump socialist state in Mongolia. No North Korea as or North Vietnam as the US won't allow it. It will be a united Korea and Vietnam. Vietnam may well go independent early as France will be in no shape to hold on to any resisting colony and the US won't help save them. This is a pure US wank in the long run and the US comes out of it even more ridiculously overpowered than OTL.

 

[thorr97]

I've been thinking quite a bit about this ATL. And I've worked up a timeline for it. This is my first attempt at doing such here so I'm open to suggestions with it.


1942

February

German army troops take Novaya Ladoga and thus effectively complete their encirclement of Leningrad​

March

German army cuts off railway from Murmansk​

August

Leningrad falls
2nd Moscow offensive​

October

Moscow encircled
Stalin orders renewed purges of "traitorous generals"
1st coup attempt fails
Civil war erupts in Soviet Union
2nd coup attempt succeeds
Moscow falls
New Soviet government sues Germany for peace​

November

Soviet Union surrenders to Nazi Germany
Allied troops occupy Baku oil fields and Caucasus region. Combat with Red Army units is brief and haphazard​

December

The Democratic Republic of the Caucasus announces its independence from the Soviet Union​

1943

January

Allies hold "Big Three" (Churchill, FDR, Chiang Kai-shek) conference in New Delhi, India
Germany commences "De-Communization" programs in the Slavic Protectorate Region
Germany commences "Reallocation" programs throughout the former Soviet Union
US begins shifting Army units from Pacific to CBI theater to keep China in the war
First German offensive to take Caucuses oil fields
​

February

US Pacific campaign now almost exclusively Navy & Marines. Philippines to be bypassed
​

April

German units begin occupation of Vladivostok
Kriegsmarine submarine base construction commences in Vladivostok
Second German offensive to take Caucuses oil fields
Allies shift forces intended to invade Italy to Persia instead so as to defend the Caucuses oil fields
​

May

Allied forces push Japanese back sufficiently to reopen Burma Road
Allied forces begin offensives into Burma
​

August

First Kriegsmarine U-boat sailing from Germany reaches Vladivostok
​

September

First Kriegsmarine U-boat assembled and launched in Vladivostok declared operational
​

November

Kriegsmarine U-boat operations commence from Vladivostok
​

December

"U-boat Panic" strikes US and Canadian west coast
​

1944

January

Allies make slow but steady progress pushing the Japanese army back through Burma and Siam
Fighting continues inconclusively in the Caucuses. The geography favors the defenders - be they Allied or German
​

May

Third major German offensive to take the Caucuses commences
Italian economy collapses. Germany forced to divert troops and resources to keep Italy in the war​

July

Allies commence major offensive in the Caucuses and make amphibious landings behind German lines to breakthrough
​

September

Allies reach Sevastopol
​

October

Allies take Crimea
​

November

Allies stage diversionary attacks up and down the Italian peninsula to further weaken the Italian economy and prepare for invasion
​

December

German counteroffensive cuts off Allied units in Crimea and drives the Allied line back toward the Caucuses
​

1945

January

Allies occupy Sicily. Germany shifts more units to Italy to counter expected invasion
​

March

Allied counter-offensive breaks through to Crimean position
US Army and Marine units land and occupy Vladivostok
US military bases construction commences around Vladivostok
​

May

Both Germany and the Allies launch offensive in the Ukraine. Territory is traded back and forth throughout the summer
First "Silverplate" B-29 units begin arriving in Vladivostok, Persia, and England
​

July

US begins landing along Korean north coast
US Army pushes in to Manchukuo and northern China from Vladivostok
Trinity test successful. Implosion type atom bomb production commences
​

August

Allied forces drive on Stalingrad
Allies continue attacks up and down Italian peninsula
Bulk of Germany army now deployed in Russia, in Italy or manning the Atlantic Wall
​

September

First atomic bomb detonated on Stalingrad
Atomic bombing campaign commences in the Ruhr. Stuttgart, Frankfurt and Cologne are destroyed
Inchon destroyed by atomic bombing.
Allied forces land along the Riviera and begin driving north into France. Multiple breakthroughs turn drive into a sprint
​

October

US military forces complete drive across Korea and reach the Yellow Sea
Atom bombs used on German troop concentrations in the path of advancing Allied units in Russia
​

November

Allied forces reach German border
Nuremberg, Hanover and Bremen are destroyed with Atom Bombs. The Atom Bomb dropped on Munich fails to detonate
​

December

US military forces reach Pusan and then complete driving remaining Japanese units from the peninsula
Airbase construction commences in southern Korea
Allied forces begin drive on Berlin
Japanese government suppresses reports of famine breaking out in rural areas of Japan
​

1946

January

US forces commence drive southward along Chinese coast
British forces retake Hong Kong
​

February

Berlin encircled
Allied forces push eastward and liberate Poland, Czechoslovakia and Austria
US Army Air Force completes shifting its bombers from their Pacific island bases
US Army Air Force heavy bombing campaign against Japan continues with even more widespread devastation
​

March

Allied forces push deeper into Russia, liberating Belarus, Ukraine and Georgia
Atom bombs now routinely used on any German troop concentrations facing Allied units
Romania surrenders ahead of advancing Allied troops
Peking liberated
​

April

Berlin destroyed with multiple atom bombs
Allied forces liberate Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
Germany surrenders
​

May

Atomic bombing campaign begins again Japan
​

June

Japan surrenders​

 

[thorr97]

sloreck,

If the intent is to be efficient about it all then, yes, it wouldn't be. But if the intent is to destroy the Soviet Union to such an extent that the Russian people can never be a threat to the Reich then that makes for a different set of criteria rather than just pure operational or economic efficiency. I'm modelling this very much along the intent described by CalBear in his ATL. Striping away Russia's industrial capacity would ensure that what population is left in the former Soviet Union would be both dependent upon the Reich and even less able to ever resist it. Hence the drive to uproot those factories lock, stock and barrel - and take their factory workers with them as well.

I've also realized that an even better "customer" than Japan for such goods would be one quite immediately close to the former Soviet Union: Turkey.

I'm sure the Turks would be absolutely overjoyed at suddenly being gifted - or even sold at fire sale prices - as much ex-Soviet heavy weaponry as they could handle. And they'd be very happy to take on as much Soviet factory equipment as they could ship in as well. Their fuel situation wouldn't be quite as dire as Japan's, Turkey isn't on a war footing at this point, and Turkey could pay for the goods with things that Japan simply couldn't afford to part with. The Allies would have an exceptionally difficult time dealing with this. A much more heavily armed Turkey would be a nightmare for the Allies but putting too much pressure on Turkey to cease and desist would be both hypocritical and risk pushing Turkey into the Axis alliance as well. In OTL, the British did a dandy business selling the Turks all manner of parts for the aircraft the Turks had purchased from Germany before the war. This was a "pure profit" operation for the British as the Germans were kind enough to provide "free shipping" of those parts to Britain first. All the British had to do was simply shoot the German planes out of the skies and then reap the harvest from the wreckage. Thus the Allies couldn't much then complain that Turkey was continuing to buy more "war surplus" parts and equipment when it began acquiring loads and loads of former Red Army kit.

At the very least, a division or two or three of Soviet armor now sporting the Turkish star and crescent would play merry hell with the Middle East in the post-war world.