Would the atomic bomb be a magic bullet against Germany if they defeated the USSR?

marathag

Banned
I honestly don't think that the atomic bombs and bombers could be build in significant numbers to do the job before the Nazis can build an air force large enough to fight them effectively.

after the 2nd Bomb goes off( and B-29s could do radar bombing at night, that was a LeMay specialty) Fat Herman need to explain to the Mustache that
Every
Single
B-29

has to be stopped before one plane wrecks an entire city with one bomb.

Even with the Russian out of the fight, the Luftwaffe already lost the War in the West in the air.

They had plenty of airframes, but short on fuel, but especially

Pilots

The Mustache can't stamp his foot and have a multitude of nightfighter trained pilots spring forth from the ground in 1945
 
Virtually impossible to defend against and hugely devastating? Yes.
Magic bullet? No.

Germany can, and would, simply sit there, getting towns and cities smashed, and disperse population and industry into the depths of the east. At some point the transport grid is likely to break down from accumulated damage and the pressure of supporting a dispersed economy, so famine and falling production result. But this still doesn't really weaken the political control of the Nazi Party. If anything, it embeds it, as the populace is now even more reliant on the civil and military authorities (one of the lessons of strategic bombing OTL).

Dispersing causes a big problem by itself, efficiency. Divide fighter production into 6 smaller factories and you might take a good 1/3 or more hit to your numbers. Germany was outnumbered enough as is , now cut its production by a third...
 
I don't think it'd be a magic bullet, but it'd do a lot of damage. The problem is that if the Soviet Union falls and there's not continuous fighting in Europe the American population might turn against the war. Even more so when the images of the bomb's effects are seen

There's also the matter of retaliation by the Germans. One thing I could see done would be the movement of occupied people into the cities in large numbers as a method of human shields. All British POW's would be dispersed to Western German cities, and the move would be very public. Probably the same with conscripted French labor. Any atom bomb dropped on a German city is then going to take out thousands of allied civilians, which will be hard for the UK and Free French governments to go along with.
 

marathag

Banned
The problem is that Germany can retaliate with chemical weapons in V2 rockets, so while the Allies win, London is gone.

Ballistic rockets impacting around Mach 2 is a terrible method of chemical weapon dispersal.

You really need proximity fuzing.

V-1s would be a better choice for that role.

But going 'C' warfare gets the US and UK replying with they have, and they have a lot more of it
 
The problem is that Germany can retaliate with chemical weapons in V2 rockets, so while the Allies win, London is gone.

That's not a given. Using ballistic missiles to deliver chemical agents is quite a difficult business, and it's by no means sure the Germans could solve all the problems. Here's two, straight off the top of my head, that they would need to overcome before this was a serious threat:
  • Atmospheric heating of the payload may de-nature the contents.
  • Effective dispersion of chemical agents can only take place at very specific altitudes, which a) will vary depending on local conditions and b) the payload will pass through extremely rapidly as it descends.
The V1 was a far better platform for the deployment of chemical weapons... but of course, it's also far easier to intercept.

Edit: Ninja'd by @marathag !
 
If Soviet Union collapsed by 1942 then I see little choice for Turkey, Spain, Sweden and Vichy France but to join the Axis. Switzerland and Portugal will soon follow. Assuming GBR won't sue for peace, the full weight of the reich will come to the Mediterranean theater. Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus and the Suez will soon fall and the RN will have to live the Mediterranean Sea. The priority's would change from the Heer to the LW and KM. I believe rare metals will be available enough for turbojet engines and superchargers for new generation fighters and bombers. Without large scale operations in the east, there is enough fuel for training new pilots. If allied bombing continues, then British cities will be turned to rubble as much as the German ones. No one new at that time if or when the bomb will be ready. The best scenario for the allies as I see it in those circumstances is to make peace, or at least an uneasy truce. The A-bomb research continues, and after the Trinity test, large scale construction of the bomb follows. A few years later when enough bombs are available, a large surprise strike might succede in forcing a surrender, if enough important targets are destroyed. That is if the secret can be kept and if the germans don't succeed with their own program wich might at last get enough founding.
 
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They didn't seem to have that program, just nerve gases, that are harder to use than you might think, and they didn't have the plans to mass produce them.

However, the US did have mass production of Anthrax and other crop diseases planned, but Japan's surrender by two atomic bombs cut all that short.
yeah there are conflicting tid bits .. I fully agree the biggest issue was delivery of said agents
 
Assuming GBR won't sue for peace, the full weight of the reich will come to the Mediterranean theater. Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus and the Suez will soon fall and the RN will have to live the Mediterranean Sea.
No, none of that follows. Nor does for instance Franco suddenly deciding to join Nazi Germany, nor Turkey or Sweden.

If allied bombing continues, then British cities will be turned to rubble as much as the German ones.

Nor does this. Germany will have to throw far too much into air defense to hold off Allied bombers to try beginning BoB mk2. If they try then the LW will be destroyed.
 
fair
Germany's air force wasn't existent because of the large number of commitments that had to be made to the Eastern front. Yes I know that most of it was destroyed in the West, but with the Soviet Union defeated German industry can shift its focus to defending itself from the bomber offensive.
Thats true, my mistake. Also, good point fair enough.
 
Another thing to consider is the occupation of the USSR would be a huge manpower soak in and of itself. The real world isn't Hearts of Iron and Nazi Germany would benefit from it less than you might think.
 
A USSR that's fallen means Germany can devote significantly more resources to aircraft and air defences. America might be able to do it, but it's going to be a costly victory. Germany is also also holding the rest of Europe hostage and can still make a mess of London. I think the cost is either too high or the Axis achieves parity in the air.
 
So, the USSR falls in 1941./1942. and the Allies just... what? Sit back and wait for a secret weapon for three full years that they're not sure is even going to work, and which was so secret not even the Vice President knew about it?

Yeah, no. Peace would be signed far sooner than 1945.
 

marathag

Banned
So, the USSR falls in 1941./1942. and the Allies just... what? Sit back and wait for a secret weapon for three full years that they're not sure is even going to work, and which was so secret not even the Vice President knew about it?

Yeah, no. Peace would be signed far sooner than 1945.

Why would the US sign a Peace Treaty, ever, with Greater Germany?

OTL, that's exactly what the USA did, waited years,spent $2B USD on multiple paths for atomic weapons(because the Germans looked into that research), spent $3B USD on the B-29 Delivery system(with 1/5th extra of that on the B-32 backup), with work on the Northrop XB-35 and Consolidated-Vultee XB-36 postponed from lack of need for an actual need for a 'Newfoundland to Berlin' Bomber, planned in case of the UK going out of the War.
 
I think the next biggest questions are: What to bomb first, and what to do next if the Nazis just go 'Bring it all!'? I doubt they destroyed Berlin. (They need someone to surrender to after all.) And you run the very real risk of the Germans blowing the bomber out of the sky, and getting their hands on one. (At the very least, they can make an dirty bomb.)

The thing to remember Germany is not Japan. In this, the USSR have been lay low, have Europe 100% occupied, and now have 200 divisions of combat veterans either in Western Europe, or or subject to instant remobilization.

Worst case, you see Atomic Bombing of all of Germany and Europe to end the War.
 
Why would the US sign a Peace Treaty, ever, with Greater Germany?

Because they are not a member of an internet forum in 2019. but a state that deals with real life questions. Questions like is it worth continuing a war that seems pointless after the fall of the USSR.

IOTL, that's exactly what the USA did, waited years,spent $2B USD on multiple paths for atomic weapons(because the Germans looked into that research), spent $3B USD on the B-29 Delivery system(with 1/5th extra of that on the B-32 backup), with work on the Northrop XB-35 and Consolidated-Vultee XB-36 postponed from lack of need for an actual need for a 'Newfoundland to Berlin' Bomber, planned in case of the UK going out of the War.

IOTL there was this little thing called the Eastern Front going on, and there was a very realistic chance of winning conventionally without putting all your hopes in projects years down the line that might not even work.
 

marathag

Banned
Just out of curiosity, could the Fuhrerbunker take a 15 KT hit?

Enola Gay dropped Little Boy, around 240 meters from the aiming point, the Aioi Bridge, so pretty good accuracy from over 30,000 feet

The
Fuhrerbunkers lowest level was 8.5 meters deep, so likely the crater would have missed, and just outside to 200psi blast effect radius.

But would have gotten between 500 and 1000 rem, plus since this was a surface burst, unlike OTL, there would be fallout,

From NUKEMAP
Effects radii for 15 kiloton surface burst (smallest to largest): ▼



Crater inside radius: 50 m (0.01 km²)

Crater depth: 20 m Crater lip radius: 100 m (0.03 km²)
Air blast radius (200 psi): 200 m (0.12 km²)
200 psi is approximately the pressure felt inside of a steam boiler on a locomotive. Extreme damage to all civilian structures, some damage to even "hardened" structures.
Fireball radius: 230 m (0.17 km²)
Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased.
Air blast radius (20 psi): 0.54 km (0.9 km²)
At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100%. Often used as a standard benchmark for heavy damage in cities.
Thermal radiation radius (35 cal/cm2): 0.86 km (2.32 km²)
Air blast radius (5 psi): 1.13 km (4 km²)
At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Often used as a standard benchmark for medium damage in cities.
Radiation radius (1000 rem): 1.21 km (4.56 km²)
1000 rem radiation dose; with immediate medical treatment, 95% mortality can be expected. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.
Radiation radius (500 rem): 1.34 km (5.64 km²)
500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several weeks.
Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 1.68 km (8.92 km²)
Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 8.7 cal/cm2.
 

marathag

Banned
Because they are not a member of an internet forum in 2019. but a state that deals with real life questions. Questions like is it worth continuing a war that seems pointless after the fall of the USSR.

U-Boats won't force the USA to sign, nor would the few 'Amerika bombers' they could build.

The War would go on, since they are still allied with Japan.

Come August, they start getting Atomic Bombs, a couple each month starting in August, with the rate increasing as production lines are finished.

The US did not just invent the Atomic Bomb, but also the infrastructure to mass produce them.

And Teller was thinking about Hydrogen Bombs almost from the start, , his 'Super' during the War while the fission bomb was also under development
 

marathag

Banned
nd you run the very real risk of the Germans blowing the bomber out of the sky, and getting their hands on one. (At the very least, they can make an dirty bomb.)

The Little Boy was 'live' once over the ocean. Now the other thing, is you have a 4.5 ton bomb that is mostly a gun barrel with a tungsten carbide cap.

It was the construction of a 'Bunker Buster' before that was a thing.
If it doesn't go off, they would never find it, just like the thousands of unexploded ordnance discovered all over Germany, even today 70+ years later

Except, gun devices bombs have enough Uranium to be a natural reactor, once groundwater seeps into the case. Water is enough of a moderator that there would be enough fissioning to flash boil that off as highly radioactive steam
 
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