Would Thatcher be given another chance?

Presuming Margaret Thatcher becomes leader of the opposition at some point in the mid seventies to early eighties, but loses seats in her first election, what are the chances of her remaining as leader. Heath was given another chance in 1966, although there were other factors at play in that case.

What do you guys think?
 
Presuming Margaret Thatcher becomes leader of the opposition at some point in the mid seventies to early eighties, but loses seats in her first election, what are the chances of her remaining as leader. Heath was given another chance in 1966, although there were other factors at play in that case.

What do you guys think?

Her biographers make it sound like no, but IMO depends on the circumstances. Likeliest scenario would be if Callaghan followed CW and went to the polls in late '78. If another hung Parliament, then Thatcher might be given another chance. A Labour majority, even a Majoresque one, would probably be the end. An interesting scenario would be if she won a minority or small (5-30) just before WoD hits.
 
Her biographers make it sound like no, but IMO depends on the circumstances. Likeliest scenario would be if Callaghan followed CW and went to the polls in late '78. If another hung Parliament, then Thatcher might be given another chance. A Labour majority, even a Majoresque one, would probably be the end. An interesting scenario would be if she won a minority or small (5-30) just before WoD hits.

Unless her Government collapsed before April 1982, I can see her hanging on presuming the Falklands conflict still goes ahead. Maybe going for an October 1982 election?
 
Presuming Margaret Thatcher becomes leader of the opposition at some point in the mid seventies to early eighties, but loses seats in her first election, what are the chances of her remaining as leader. Heath was given another chance in 1966, although there were other factors at play in that case.

What do you guys think?

Zip - in a word. The Tories were an unforgiving lot. In Oct. '74, Heath conceded a defeat of a Labour majority of three. If Thatcher did worse, she would not have lasted five minutes.
 
Unless her Government collapsed before April 1982, I can see her hanging on presuming the Falklands conflict still goes ahead. Maybe going for an October 1982 election?

Definitely, though the majority is smaller than OTL's 144. Though butterflies could mean either Healey beats Foot or Benn beats Healey.
 
Definitely, though the majority is smaller than OTL's 144. Though butterflies could mean either Healey beats Foot or Benn beats Healey.

If Healey or even Foot wins, Labour could have a decent shot in 1986/1987. As much as I like Benn I've got a feeling the Labour party would wind up as a third party under his leadership.
 
Presuming Margaret Thatcher becomes leader of the opposition at some point in the mid seventies to early eighties, but loses seats in her first election, what are the chances of her remaining as leader. Heath was given another chance in 1966, although there were other factors at play in that case.

What do you guys think?

seems very unlikely, partly because Thatcher was dealing with a lot of sexism, part of how she got the job, no one really thought a woman could get the job so they didn't run against her till it was too late, she looses 1979, the Tories shake their heads and say behind their hands "well what did you think would happen putting a lady in charge?" and Girls spend the 1980s in the Tory backbench (which they did, Thatcher was the only woman in her cabinet)
 
If Healey or even Foot wins, Labour could have a decent shot in 1986/1987. As much as I like Benn I've got a feeling the Labour party would wind up as a third party under his leadership.


They can't win under Foot- another massacre on the scale of OTL's. Healey is 70 in 1987 and therefore too old. Probably Kinnock or Hattersley later than OTL in that case.

Cabinet butterflies: Parkinson at the FO if he keeps his pants zipped, or alternately if Howe is less prominent than OTL than she might entice Owen to cross the floor.

BA: You forgot Lady Young, but she was only there for less than 2 years in a minor portfolio plus got savaged in DSY.
 
So, if Maggie lost the elction in 1979, or 1978 if Callaghan had had the cojones to call an election when he had a decent chance of winning - who would her successor have been?

Off the top of my head:

Whitelaw
Pym
Walker
Howe

Willie it is then!
 
They can't win under Foot- another massacre on the scale of OTL's. Healey is 70 in 1987 and therefore too old. Probably Kinnock or Hattersley later than OTL in that case.

Sorry I should have made it clearer, either Healey or Foot fights the 1983 election then resigns for someone like Kinnock.
 
Presuming Margaret Thatcher becomes leader of the opposition at some point in the mid seventies to early eighties, but loses seats in her first election, what are the chances of her remaining as leader. Heath was given another chance in 1966, although there were other factors at play in that case.

What do you guys think?

Depends on the circumstances. If she does better/not any worse than predicted (like Heath in 66 and Kinnock in 87) she probably remains. If she snatches defeat from the jaws of victory (like Kinnock in 92) she probably goes.
 

AndyC

Donor
Zip - in a word. The Tories were an unforgiving lot. In Oct. '74, Heath conceded a defeat of a Labour majority of three. If Thatcher did worse, she would not have lasted five minutes.

Nah - that was Heath's third loss in four attempts.
In his first shot in 1966, he was facing a Labour majority of about 1 and lost to a near-landslide of a abour majority of 97.
He still had a second shot in 1970 (winning), and a fourth shot after losing the unnecessary election he called in Feb 74.

It was an effectively hung Parliament when the election was called in 1979 (and would have been in 1978 as well), so with Heath's precedent, she should have had a second shot anyway (albeit her position was possibly more frail than Heath's in '66). The tradition of stepping down when you lose one election really only took root in 1997 - and even in 2001, Hague would have continues if he'd made some progress beyond "moribund". Even getting somewhere short of Foot-esque levels of seats would have kept him in.

That said, the sexism of the time was notable. As long as Thatcher didn't suffer a landslide against, she'd have probably had a second shot.
 
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