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Context:

Japan manages to get the worts elements of the Kwantung army under control in '37 and is also slightly less militaristic. Intra-service rivalry between the Army and Navy prevents any decision to invade China.

European conflict goes more or less as OTL up to and including the BoB. At that point, either due to Stalin not informing Hitler of Churchills telegram, or Hitler having an epiphany regarding an invasion of Russia or him getting cold feet (see Mannerheim conversation), or Hitler somehow dying and Goering takes over, or any other scenario you prefer, Nazi leadership decides not to invade the Soviet Union in the early '40s. (if the only thing you are willing to write is that the Universe is hard-wired to have Nazi Germany invade the USSR in '41, then don't bother posting in this thread)

Furthermore, there is no active US participation in the war - only limited lend-lease to Britain.

Under these circumstances, how likely is it that Stalin invades Germany?
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