Would Stalin invade?

How likely is it that Stalin would invade Nazi Europe in the '40s?


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jahenders

Banned
I think Stalin would wait to build up somewhat and then watch for opportunity WRT Germany. If/when Germany stumbles of is too heavily engaged, Stalin would make some initial thrusts (perhaps more of Poland).

I think, based on what little I know it would take a combination of circumstances for Stalin to invade Germany on his own.

If I remember correctly, the Red Army had begun a 5 year plan in '37 which was slightly derailed by the Winter War, however the main part was still on course to be complete around 1942. At that point, the German high command would have a good idea at that point that they probably couldn't defeat the Soviets as they could simply be swamped by a seemingly endless pool of manpower*.

I think it would need the completion of the 5 year plan AND some instability in Germany, be it Hitler's death, a coup, financial issues, Tube Alloys anything. Germany doesn't need to collapse, just get thrown slightly off balance. At which point I could see a push for a good chunk of the remaining Poland, ("liberating our fellow Slavs..."), and potentially make a good stab at Finland into the bargain.

The end result is a bloody stalemate until quantity eventually wins out, at which point France, the Benelux countries and Britain will be worried.



*it wasn't, but still...
 
The Soviets really don't have much reason to invade Germany at this time. They know such an action would be a difficult fight to accomplish and a foolish waste of resources and lives.

If Stalin wants a war, he will probably first go after a much easier foe to expand the Soviet sphere of influence, Japan. The Russians can invade Manchuria, purge the Japanese, and create a communist ally out of China.
 
I think his foreign policy only makes sense if the goal is to invade and exploit the weakening of Germany following a war. The deposition of forces also makes by far the most sense if the plan is to invade.
My take on this is that Germany was supposed to still be at war with France in 1941 (maybe 1942) at which time the Soviet Union was supposed to invade.
The poor Soviet performance in the winter war and the fall of France changed that plan.
Was he still planning on invasion as the main objective? I think so, Stalin continued the forward deployment that was extremely risky if caught on the defensive, but when the chance to execute the invasion would occur is a different question.
 
The Soviets really don't have much reason to invade Germany at this time. They know such an action would be a difficult fight to accomplish and a foolish waste of resources and lives.

The bolded piece I agree with, but the Soviets basically wanted to conquer the world. Its their Communist duty.
Stalin was not timid about wasting resources and lives.
 
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