Would SpaceX still exist if NASA replaced the space shuttle with the X-33 and had not spent almost a dozen billion on Constellation?

[CmdrShep2154]

I heard that Al Gore was a proponent of the X-33.

Had Al Gore won and the X-33 been successfully able to replace the space shuttle what would SpaceX be like in the 2010s? I heard that George Bush helped save SpaceX.

In such a TL would China and Russia still decide to develop a permanent presence on the Moon by the 2030s? Would NASA's Artemis still be a thing?

 

[ivanotter]

X-33 was a technology demonstrator. The real deal would have been the VentureStar.

It was all about money. How to get 'things' into orbit and at what cost. Cost per kg and all done by something reliable (not blowing up on the pad etc).

So Lockheed Martin looked at a continuation of the shuttle (not a bad idea after all), but it became very 'technical'.

Elon looked at current technology - a rocket - and made it into reusable components. Not greatly innovative in the basic components, but very innovatinve in its

 

[ivanotter]

... engineering aspects.

It all comes down to one thing: what is cheapest combined with being reliable.

All of that said, we should look forward to a real break-through. Whether it is Elon or NASA, we still sit with technology based on a chemical reaction. As even V2 was.

The real quantum leap will be the space elevator and/or maglev up a mountain side. It is there. Now it is engineering.

 

[Wendell]

If not SpaceX then something like it would exist.

 

[Thanksforallthefish]

The Venture Star did have huge engineering hurdles (especially in the engines) that weren't never really solved. More funding and redesigns could do it but it would be a very experimental and probably unreliable craft. It's not a terrible concept, much to the contrary, but still something very cutting edge with huge possible problems, much like the Space Shuttle.

There would still be a large and growing market for cheap satellite launches that the Venture Stars or the Russian/European rockets could not cover, and that's where SpaceX and other private companies would eventually come to play. I could see Musk developing an equivalent of the Skylon or the Dreamchaser if he is as successful as OTL (after all if one thinks about it, Starship is the Space Shuttle but updated, patched and remasterized)

 

[marathag]

Had Al Gore won

Would not have been able to change the NASA mindset, that was that way from Congress funds NASA
Him being Prez would change what NASA would be doing with the Shuttle

 

[Garrison]

Would not have been able to change the NASA mindset, that was that way from Congress funds NASA
Him being Prez would change what NASA would be doing with the Shuttle

Yeah you would still be seeing massive cost overruns and delays plus I suspect operating costs in the STS range. I suspect there is no way there is COTS program and without that SpaceX may founder. Eventually some commercial company may make it, but limited to small sat launches, though I doubt the ULA cartel will be troubled by any such developments.

 

[e of pi]

The VentureStar design had enough technical issues I don't think it could have succeeded. However, if NASA had funded a second generation large reusable vehicle in the early 00s, I agree with others it's quite likely SpaceX founders and never launches anything beyond Falcon 1--if they even stay afloat that long. I'll disagree on costs--properly designed and with a higher flight rate, there's little reason to expect that a second generation RLV built and operated by NASA would be bad. Shuttle had a program base cost of about $2b, and it is quite likely at least $1.5b of that would carry over to a new vehicle, because it covers a lot of general NASA operations not really directly related to the vehicle...which is why the per-flight direct costs were more like just $100-$200m. With a second generation vehicle getting that down to $1.5b fixed and $50m/flight direct costs (fairly reasonable to assume) a ten-flight-per-year flight rate would have an ammortized annual cost of about $200m, and commercial operations beyond a baseline of Shuttle II missions to the space station and NASA launches could be sold for as little as $100m while still contributing usefully to NASA's flight rate and budget.