Would Sejanus Have Been Better than Caligula?

Would Sejanus Have Been Better Than Caligula?

  • Yes

    Votes: 13 59.1%
  • No

    Votes: 9 40.9%

  • Total voters
    22
Would Sejanus Have Been Better Than Caligula?

As you all know both Sejanus and Caligula have terrible reputations. It is a matter of debate if this is deserved or due to biased source material. Whether they were both all evil or that Sejanus' was a capable administrator and Caligula a man of the people....

So lets imagine a scenario where everything goes according to Sejanus' plans. He never falls from power, marries Livilla and Tiberius never turns on him. Caligula is eliminated along with the rest of his brothers. Tiberius then dies and is succeeded by his grandson Gemellus with Sejanus as regent. I don't think Sejanus would of been able to succeed Tiberius directly, being from the equestrian class, so this is probably his best bet for power.

Would this have been a better development than OTL? Or would Sejanus rule have been just as bad? One positive I see in Sejanus/Gemellus is they are less likely to blow Tiberius immense fortune.
 
No, his personality would have screwed things up for the Empire in equivalent but different ways too poor traumatized and brain damaged Caligula. I think it comes out as a wash.
 
They were both bad for different reasons. Caligula may not have been as insane as primary sources have led us to believe, but he was certainly fiscally irresponsible, spending a good portion of Rome's treasury on bonuses for the legions and frivolous invasions of Roman allies (which explains his popularity with the legions, who demanded the heads of his assassins after Claudius ascended to the throne). Caligula also assembled the legions that Claudius would later use to invade Britain (which was bad for the Empire in the long run, according to some historians), so he may not have been totally mad, but neither was he an economist, probably due to his young age and upbringing. He was only the fourth-oldest son of Germanicus after Drusus, Nero, and Gaius the Elder, so his father never could have imagined him on the throne and he received very little training for that reason, but when Sejanus had almost all of his siblings executed, there he was on the throne, very young and very inexperienced.

Sejanus on the other hand, was dangerous to the regime for a different reason. He was an able administrator, a very intelligent man, and incredibly cunning politician, so on paper, he's a great potential regent for the empire. The problem was, he was an equite, so there was no way he could assume the throne legitimately, as you rightly pointed out. In fact, he tried to assume the throne IOTL by conspiring with Tiberius' niece Livilla to kill Drusus (who was both Tiberiu's son and Livilla's wife). When Drusus died, Sejanus tried to marry Livilla (which would make him the likely heir), but Tiberius dismissed the idea out of hand. The problem is that, for him to effectively seize regency, he would have had to exile or kill basically any other member of the royal family. He tried to do this IOTL, but Tiberius eventually caught on. If the POD is an early death of Tiberius, it's possible Sejanus could rule as regent, but he would have to act quickly to neutralize the threat of Claudius and Caligula, who would be the only other possible claimants to the throne (provided the POD is after the death of Tiberius' son Drusus and the purges of the Julians). If he succeeds, he could potentially have a long and successful regency, but that would leave Gemellus' future sons as the only possible heirs to the throne, and given the ancient world's track record with infant mortality and disease, it's possible you might just get the Year of the Four Emperors in the 30s CE instead of 69 CE.
 
No, his personality would have screwed things up for the Empire in equivalent but different ways too poor traumatized and brain damaged Caligula. I think it comes out as a wash.

If the POD is an early death of Tiberius, it's possible Sejanus could rule as regent, but he would have to act quickly to neutralize the threat of Claudius and Caligula, who would be the only other possible claimants to the throne (provided the POD is after the death of Tiberius' son Drusus and the purges of the Julians). If he succeeds, he could potentially have a long and successful regency, but that would leave Gemellus' future sons as the only possible heirs to the throne, and given the ancient world's track record with infant mortality and disease, it's possible you might just get the Year of the Four Emperors in the 30s CE instead of 69 CE.

Good points both of you. I wanted to add that Claudius might be spared due to him being married to Sejanus' sister Aelia Paetina. Also maybe Gemellus could marry Sejanus' daughter?
 
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Good points both you. I wanted to add that Claudius might be spared due to him being married to Sejanus' sister Aelia Paetina. Also maybe Gemellus could marry Sejanus' daughter?

Well shoot, I guess my memory lapsed there. That's definitely possible. I could even see Sejanus assassinating Gemellus if he got too old/independent and making Claudius emperor (since he was basically the royal family's laughingstock before Caligula was assassinated). In this case, Claudius might even depose the now-elderly Sejanus. Of course, Sejanus was no idiot and probably would have recognized that Claudius was smarter than he looked, so he may have Claudius killed and seize regency over any future children Claudius may have had with his sister, as they would be older than any of Gemellus' future children.

The one wild card I hadn't considered yet is the senate. They might have tried to have him assassinated by bribing some of his praetorian officers. Whether this would succeed or not is a tossup, but their influence in this time period was not trivial, and I wouldn't put it past them to at least try. For example, Galba was already a well respected general and senator by this time, so they may try and declare him emperor 20 or 30 years sooner than IOTL
 
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