Lets say there was no invasion of Iraq. The POD could be an upgrade in airport security in early September 2001. How would Saddam fair in during the time of Arab spring? With the no fly zones, he could not use the same degree of repression against demonstrators that we see in Syria. Would the atmosphere inspire the leaders of Kurdistan to declare independence? What would be the ratifications of that? I know the governments of Turkey, Syria and Iran would not be happy about that and it would put the US in a difficult position.