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The PoD is that Lieutenant-General William Gott doesnt die in a plane crash, and instead successfully assumes the role of Auchinleck's successor in North Africa.

With him, rather than Monty, in command of the British Eighth Army, do you foresee Rommel being able to win at the 2nd Battle of El Alamein?

Here's an assessment of his potential command competency:

A big man with an aggressive, outgoing personality, he was popular with soldiers under his command, but as a senior commander he was considered by some to be out of his depth. John Bierman and Colin Smith say that Gott was much admired for his personal qualities, but lacked real military skill. He was one of the few senior officers who was "well known and well liked by the rank and file". However, "a cold appraisal of his soldiering in North Africa reveals no stunning display of tactics or Rommel-esque grip that bends scarred and exhausted men to the will of the born leader.

- Pitt, B Crucible of War: Year of Alamein 1942 p122 (1982)
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