Bush had virtually no foreign policy experience to speak of, and would therefore not be an active participant in a McCain administration's foreign policy deliberations.What about with a Vice President George W Bush?
Agreed. I take the view that it was probably Cheney who was the primary architect of Iraq, and he likely pushed W into it to an extent.I find it far more likely that McCain would back action against North Korea and Iran in 2006-07 than Iraq in 2003.
North Korea and Iran in 2006-07 than Iraq in 2003.
North Korea or Libya.
NK later on
North Korea and Iran are more likely targets.
I was thinking Liddy Dole or Mark Sanford. Certainly no VP Bush. Not in this TTL anyway.As it says on the tin. McCain beats Bush in the 2000 GOP primary and then defeats Gore in the general. Assuming 9/11 still occurs, would McCain expand the war on terror to include both Iraq and Afghanistan?
Could McCain get away with NK? Surely China would've had something to say about that?
I could definitely see Libya, the question is when? Obviously IOTL it was 2011, would McCain hit Gaddafi in his first or second term (assuming McCain gets two terms and Gaddafi's actions are the same as OTL).
Iran? That's a nightmare waiting to happen. I'm thinking 2008-ish?
I find it highly unlikely that the Chinese will simply trust the US to keep North Korea free of western troops/influence after an invasion. A joint PRC-US invasion might be in the cards, but I still consider it a long shot.N.Korea
Here is the real question. Would Iran allow inspectors in to defuse the situation? The is a real case here that McCain wouldn't invade Iraq if Saddam fully cooperates. If Iran cooperates as well (perhaps along the lines of the OTL deal) there may not be a reason to invade Iran. Ahmadinejad getting elected will have to be butterflied though. Another "Khatami" or "Rouhani" type figure may be willing to work with McCain.Iran, 2007
I find it highly unlikely that the Chinese will simply trust the US to keep North Korea free of western troops/influence after an invasion. A joint PRC-US invasion might be in the cards, but I still consider it a long shot.
The more pertinent question about Libya is "why?"I could definitely see Libya, the question is when?
I am not sure that McCain would start an offensive war with anyone unless there is serious provocation. McCain knows first hand what war means, both in combat, as well as spending years in a POW camp. He is not going to go to war without exhausting all other options.
Yeah, the lack of a personal grudge against Saddam Hussein on McCain's part along with the fact that Afghanistan still needed to be fully stabilized would have probably deterred a President McCain from invading Iraq, IMHO.Also in 2003 during the build-up to the invasion of Iraq G.W. Bush came to Fort Hood where I was stationed to speak to us. At the end of his speech he made a loud declaration that Saddam tried to kill his father, that has always stuck with me and I believe that part of the reason for the Iraq invasion was because of the attempted hit on Bush Sr.
Yeah, the lack of a personal grudge against Saddam Hussein on McCain's part along with the fact that Afghanistan still needed to be fully stabilized would have probably deterred a President McCain from invading Iraq, IMHO.