Would Palin have run in 2012 without Tuscon shooting?

Despite the fact that various Democratic Senators including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid survived in 2010 simply because they were facing extremist far-right Republican nominees from the Tea Party, the Tea Party did mobilize a lot of Republican voters to come out in 2010.

Palin seemingly could have run in the Republican presidential primaries this year, even though she would have no chance to win. If she somehow wins the GOP nomination, she may very possibly put deep red states like Texas in play and lose her home state of Alaska.

However, after the shooting of Gabrielle Giffords, Palin was widely blamed for her infamous "target list". While she was already universally hated by that point, no one cares about Palin after Tuscon shooting. Let's say it did not happen at all. Would Sarah Palin try? Or she would still come to the conclusion that she could not possibly win, so nothing happens, and Romney still gets the nomination and lose as in OTL?
 
Despite the fact that various Democratic Senators including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid survived in 2010 simply because they were facing extremist far-right Republican nominees from the Tea Party, the Tea Party did mobilize a lot of Republican voters to come out in 2010.

Palin seemingly could have run in the Republican presidential primaries this year, even though she would have no chance to win. If she somehow wins the GOP nomination, she may very possibly put deep red states like Texas in play and lose her home state of Alaska.

However, after the shooting of Gabrielle Giffords, Palin was widely blamed for her infamous "target list". While she was already universally hated by that point, no one cares about Palin after Tuscon shooting. Let's say it did not happen at all. Would Sarah Palin try? Or she would still come to the conclusion that she could not possibly win, so nothing happens, and Romney still gets the nomination and lose as in OTL?

While I'm no expert, I still think at that point Palin already became such a joke that even if she ran (with or without Tucson shooting) she wouldn't have gotten anywhere. Her advisers would probably recommend against running.

Marc A
 

Jasen777

Donor
It seems like she didn't really want to. But she would have a chance to win the nomination if she ran. Herman Cain was leading the the polls before all the allegations came out. Herman Cain! The anti-Romney vote absolutely could have rallied to her.
 
Doubtful, she had already accomplished her goal of appearing on TV nonstop. And she probably knew that the promise of running for president was more appealing to potential supporters than actually running and disappointing them.
 

Japhy

Banned
By the time the shootings took place Palin had already crossed over from being an "Iowa" candidate (Tea Party Republicans with a chance of gaining traction against Romney and the rest of the moderates, ie the "New Hampshire" candidates) to being a Farce Candidate, not all that different then Donald Trump. There's a reason that when she announced she wouldn't run that it was burred several pages into every newspaper in the country.
 
It seems like she didn't really want to. But she would have a chance to win the nomination if she ran. Herman Cain was leading the the polls before all the allegations came out. Herman Cain! The anti-Romney vote absolutely could have rallied to her.


I'd have to agree with this statement.

It took ages for the Republicans to rally under one banner effectively.
Rick Perry was leading for a while, and then Santorum.......

I could easily see a few people getting behind Palin, especially if they want to appeal to Women voters.

I still see her having no way of winning.
 
She had quite a following. I think she could have won the nomination. That means Alaska could have go Democratic for the first time since 1964.
 
I think she doesn't want to be POTUS anymore; she just wants the attention, which is why she haunted the primaries but never did anything serious.
 
She would have split the tea party vote with Santorum and Bachmann. There are a finite number of right wing votes and I just don’t see her as a unifying figure.
 
Based on what I've read in the POLITICO Playbook series, Palin was strongly considering running until Bachmann declared. Her base suddenly escaped, and it was unlikely she would be able to win. Palin would have made a very strong opponent for Romney, though I doubt she would have won any major caucuses or primaries.
 
No. That was an insignificant fact in the explodation of Palin's political career. Much bigger factors are her partly deserved rep as an intellectual lightweight and her quitting as Governor partway through her term.

Despite the fact that various Democratic Senators including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid survived in 2010 simply because they were facing extremist far-right Republican nominees from the Tea Party, the Tea Party did mobilize a lot of Republican voters to come out in 2010.

Palin seemingly could have run in the Republican presidential primaries this year, even though she would have no chance to win. If she somehow wins the GOP nomination, she may very possibly put deep red states like Texas in play and lose her home state of Alaska.

However, after the shooting of Gabrielle Giffords, Palin was widely blamed for her infamous "target list". While she was already universally hated by that point, no one cares about Palin after Tuscon shooting. Let's say it did not happen at all. Would Sarah Palin try? Or she would still come to the conclusion that she could not possibly win, so nothing happens, and Romney still gets the nomination and lose as in OTL?
 
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