In my opinion Bay of Pigs shows clearly as US didn't understand nothing about Cuba: they thought Cubans were ready to revolt against Castro and in opposite they wholeheartedly supported him, they thought a small militia was sufficient to defeat Cuban army and they were so wrong, they thought Soviets wouldn't dare to sell arms to Cubans but they did it and largely. Castro was widely popular and Cubans were ready to fight for him. Cuban Revolutionary Army was created after years of guerrilla, so they were absolutely trained for this version of warfare. Sierra Maestra was their main base and will became probably a stronghold of Cuban resistence.
Of course, Cuba is not Vietnam, as there is not jungle and is logistically nearer that Indochina, but I suspect that US public opinion will not be quiet while she waits a decade-long war. Especially if the invasion will be sold an easy trip to Cuba to defeat Communists and smoke a cigar. So in conclusion the Castro Brothers and Che Guevara have a good chance to lead a difficult but ultimately victorious guerrilla war against US occupant forces, with Soviet supplies (they did it in Cuba under Baptista) and also international sympathy, more then Vietnam (it was invaded with Saigon's consensus and officially North Vietnam was never invaded. Cuba is a independent and recognized nation and invasion is explicitly led to overthrow its goverment, not to suppress insurgences against it). It's also possible a sort of '68 anticipated.
Of course, Cuba is not Vietnam, as there is not jungle and is logistically nearer that Indochina, but I suspect that US public opinion will not be quiet while she waits a decade-long war. Especially if the invasion will be sold an easy trip to Cuba to defeat Communists and smoke a cigar. So in conclusion the Castro Brothers and Che Guevara have a good chance to lead a difficult but ultimately victorious guerrilla war against US occupant forces, with Soviet supplies (they did it in Cuba under Baptista) and also international sympathy, more then Vietnam (it was invaded with Saigon's consensus and officially North Vietnam was never invaded. Cuba is a independent and recognized nation and invasion is explicitly led to overthrow its goverment, not to suppress insurgences against it). It's also possible a sort of '68 anticipated.