Would Nationalist China have beaten Communist China if Japan didn't invade?

I don't think Japan would be forced from Korea. The WAllies probably wouldn't care if they lose Manchuria, but I have a feeling that they would draw a line at Korea.

Now even having said that, I think the WAllies would still provide masses of equipment to Japan help them in Manchuria and might even consider using B-29s in air strikes against targets in the Soviet Union and China. I do however think that the WAllies would pour manpower into stopping Chinese expansion at the Yalu.

True, it might also see the first deployment of western troops in the Far Eastern Front, the Wallies previously content to let the Japanese fight for them while giving the Japanese what they need to stand up against the Chinese and the Soviets.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm having fantasies of a combined fleet of the Nagatos, Yamatos, North Carolinas, SoDaks and Iowas shelling the hell out of Chinese positions along the coast and defending Hong Kong.

I think this would depend if the Wallies are willing to escalate the war in the Far East, i.e. China has so far refrained from attacking into SE Asia, staying on the defensive against Japanese troops operating from Indochina. They might reinforce Hong Kong, but I'm not sure they start shelling coastal targets unless they really want to escalate, which could prove really problematic in the long-term. They might, strictly on military targets, if the Japanese are pushed back to the Yalu and the Chinese and the Soviets are gunning for the peninsula. Jiang may throw in the towel at this point, I'm not really sure. Victory in Manchuria, plus the Soviet juggernaut poised to strike into Western Europe and to continue the war in Iran...Jiang and Stalin may think the Allied position could be pushed to an extent.
 

SsgtC

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True, it might also see the first deployment of western troops in the Far Eastern Front, the Wallies previously content to let the Japanese fight for them while giving the Japanese what they need to stand up against the Chinese and the Soviets.



I think this would depend if the Wallies are willing to escalate the war in the Far East, i.e. China has so far refrained from attacking into SE Asia, staying on the defensive against Japanese troops operating from Indochina. They might reinforce Hong Kong, but I'm not sure they start shelling coastal targets unless they really want to escalate, which could prove really problematic in the long-term. They might, strictly on military targets, if the Japanese are pushed back to the Yalu and the Chinese and the Soviets are gunning for the peninsula. Jiang may throw in the towel at this point, I'm not really sure. Victory in Manchuria, plus the Soviet juggernaut poised to strike into Western Europe and to continue the war in Iran...Jiang and Stalin may think the Allied position could be pushed to an extent.
I'm assuming that WAllied support here is a bit of quid pro quo. The Japanese helped in the landings in Europe and escorting convoys and were essential in holding the line in the Middle East. Now they want the rest of the Allies to help them hold the line in Asia.

Again, I don't think the WAllies commit ground forces to Asia (outside of reinforcing Malaya, Burma, Singapore and Hong Kong) until Korea is threatened. But I do think they provide naval forces to launch airstrikes and provide shore bombardment before then. Yes, it risks escalating. But if they restrict targets to strictly military targets, I think they minimize that risk while showing Japan that they won't be left high and dry against China and the USSR
 
Now imagine Chang Kai Sek's China joining the Axis given their unofficial alliance with Nazi Germany that means there would be no Japanese invasion of China (since Nationalist China is in the Axis ITTL) and aid from the Germans and the Japanese would allow them to crush Mao Zedong's Communists (that is unless the Allies and/or the Soviet Union give aid to the PLA), though if we were to go down the route that OTL World War II followed China would perhaps be invaded by the Soviet Union since an Axis-aligned Nationalist China would participate with the Germans in an invasion against the Chinese and the Soviets would overthrow the Axis-friendly Chinese government and replace with a Soviet-friendly Communist Chinese government which means no Sino-Soviet split.
 
Now imagine Chang Kai Sek's China joining the Axis given their unofficial alliance with Nazi Germany that means there would be no Japanese invasion of China (since Nationalist China is in the Axis ITTL) and aid from the Germans and the Japanese would allow them to crush Mao Zedong's Communists (that is unless the Allies and/or the Soviet Union give aid to the PLA), though if we were to go down the route that OTL World War II followed China would perhaps be invaded by the Soviet Union since an Axis-aligned Nationalist China would participate with the Germans in an invasion against the Chinese and the Soviets would overthrow the Axis-friendly Chinese government and replace with a Soviet-friendly Communist Chinese government which means no Sino-Soviet split.

There is absolutely no way Japan and China would ally with each other at this point. Not with the whole issue up north in Manchukuo, and well before that the Twenty-Four Demands.

I'm assuming that WAllied support here is a bit of quid pro quo. The Japanese helped in the landings in Europe and escorting convoys and were essential in holding the line in the Middle East. Now they want the rest of the Allies to help them hold the line in Asia.

Oh yes, that's certainly true. It'd gall the IJA, but the government would certainly be relieved if they can get help, especially after all Japan has contributed to the war effort, and still is.

Again, I don't think the WAllies commit ground forces to Asia (outside of reinforcing Malaya, Burma, Singapore and Hong Kong) until Korea is threatened. But I do think they provide naval forces to launch airstrikes and provide shore bombardment before then. Yes, it risks escalating. But if they restrict targets to strictly military targets, I think they minimize that risk while showing Japan that they won't be left high and dry against China and the USSR

Maybe while Japan still holds parts of Manchuria, B-29s or B-17s from there or Korea could be used to hit railheads and other strategic targets as part of the initial Allied contribution (outside of lend-lease and even before that Cash and Carry) to the war effort in the Far East. On another note, Hainan could be occupied by the USA if Korea comes under threat, as a message to Jiang not to push the Allies, to say nothing of Allied troops beginning to land in Korea to reinforce the exhausted IJA.
 

SsgtC

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Now imagine Chang Kai Sek's China joining the Axis given their unofficial alliance with Nazi Germany that means there would be no Japanese invasion of China (since Nationalist China is in the Axis ITTL) and aid from the Germans and the Japanese would allow them to crush Mao Zedong's Communists
Why would Japan aid the Nationalists? They were actively fighting them IOTL. And I don't see that changing here. The KMT was receiving large amounts of aide from the USSR, and Japan would not want a USSR aligned China right off their coast. The only way Japan sends aide to Chiang is in a post-Barbarosa world where Japan is still tied closely to Germany but at the same time never invaded China or any of the other SEA territories
 
Why would Japan aid the Nationalists? They were actively fighting them IOTL. And I don't see that changing here. The KMT was receiving large amounts of aide from the USSR, and Japan would not want a USSR aligned China right off their coast. The only way Japan sends aide to Chiang is in a post-Barbarosa world where Japan is still tied closely to Germany but at the same time never invaded China or any of the other SEA territories
What I meant to say that a Axis-aligned China would receive aid from the Germans given their unofficial alliance.
 

SsgtC

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Maybe while Japan still holds parts of Manchuria, B-29s or B-17s from there or Korea could be used to hit railheads and other strategic targets as part of the initial Allied contribution (outside of lend-lease and even before that Cash and Carry) to the war effort in the Far East. On another note, Hainan could be occupied by the USA if Korea comes under threat, as a message to Jiang not to push the Allies, to say nothing of Allied troops beginning to land in Korea to reinforce the exhausted IJA.
Oh I definitely agree here. That we probably see very early in the war. IOTL, the US had no issues supporting two complete air forces on opposite sides of the world. I think they do the same here. We probably see numerous B-17 and B-24 bomb wings in Manchuria and Korea hitting rail lines, roads and raw resources in China and Siberia.

It's also possible that several Army divisions are sent to Korea to hold that country and free up IJA troops for combat in China or Manchuria. We could also see P-47s and P-38s flying bomber escort in SEA alongside A6Ms. And wouldn't that be a sight.

How much cross training do you think would take place? The IJN carrier aviation training program was infamously difficult and the IJN was rather quickly desperate for pilots and ground crew. Would the USN or RN allow IJN personal to train with them? Assuming the language barrier can be handled.
 
Oh I definitely agree here. That we probably see very early in the war. IOTL, the US had no issues supporting two complete air forces on opposite sides of the world. I think they do the same here. We probably see numerous B-17 and B-24 bomb wings in Manchuria and Korea hitting rail lines, roads and raw resources in China and Siberia.

It's also possible that several Army divisions are sent to Korea to hold that country and free up IJA troops for combat in China or Manchuria. We could also see P-47s and P-38s flying bomber escort in SEA alongside A6Ms. And wouldn't that be a sight.

How much cross training do you think would take place? The IJN carrier aviation training program was infamously difficult and the IJN was rather quickly desperate for pilots and ground crew. Would the USN or RN allow IJN personal to train with them? Assuming the language barrier can be handled.

Japanese colonial policies in Korea are going to be a major issue for American forces in Korea, especially if they stick around for that long. Then again, that might be a step in the right direction, that is the Japanese government having to...lighten, things up in Korea to avoid losing face. Plus the radicals getting decimated/marginalized by a bloody war that Japan only won thanks to external help...one or two steps in the right direction, and here's to they keep going that way.

In SE Asia...yeah, definitely. Combat air patrol from Indochina and the Philippines, coupled with fly the flag in the West Philippine Sea...G4Ms/Ki-49 and Ki-43/Ki-61 (possibly using an American/British engine ITTL since the OTL Ki-61 used a German engine they got in 1940) alongside P-40s and B-25s in the air, along with coordinated patrols by the RN, the USN, and the IJN on the water. Or perhaps the RAN, to allow the RN to concentrate on more important fronts.

The language barrier is going to be a problem when it comes to exchanging experiences and methodology. It'd probably be top-down, i.e. the Admiralty (at least one of whom studied at Annapolis) taking a leaf out of the American book, rotating aces from the front line to have them teach for a while plus streamlining training to allow pilots who are neither green recruits (as was the case IOTL from '43 onward) but cutting-edge as the IJN tried to have all their pilots be, but good, all-around pilots who can survive their first engagements and go on to become skilled pilots on the battlefield.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Japanese colonial policies in Korea are going to be a major issue for American forces in Korea, especially if they stick around for that long. Then again, that might be a step in the right direction, that is the Japanese government having to...lighten, things up in Korea to avoid losing face. Plus the radicals getting decimated/marginalized by a bloody war that Japan only won thanks to external help...one or two steps in the right direction, and here's to they keep going that way.

In SE Asia...yeah, definitely. Combat air patrol from Indochina and the Philippines, coupled with fly the flag in the West Philippine Sea...G4Ms/Ki-49 and Ki-43/Ki-61 (possibly using an American/British engine ITTL since the OTL Ki-61 used a German engine they got in 1940) alongside P-40s and B-25s in the air, along with coordinated patrols by the RN, the USN, and the IJN on the water. Or perhaps the RAN, to allow the RN to concentrate on more important fronts.
It would definitely be, complicated. To say the least. But in the right scenario, possible. I think the IJN has a MUCH easier time integrating with the rest of the Allies than the IJA does. The IJN modeled themselves on the RN and saw themselves as the heir to the RN's tradition in Asia. So I don't think there would be issues on that front.
 
It would definitely be, complicated. To say the least. But in the right scenario, possible. I think the IJN has a MUCH easier time integrating with the rest of the Allies than the IJA does. The IJN modeled themselves on the RN and saw themselves as the heir to the RN's tradition in Asia. So I don't think there would be issues on that front.

The IJN had their share of atrocities IOTL, though IIRC that was more SNLF and less the IJN proper. It's not like IJN went on a habit of shelling cities on a whim because a pair of captains wanted to see which of them could destroy more buildings/kill more people. Working with the Allies might be enough to get the Admiralty to keep a tighter grip on its SNLF to keep them from going on rampage like the IJA.

One more thing the IJN would probably learn from the Allies is improved damage control and crew accommodations. The IJN was surprisingly similar to the Kaiserliche Marine in that their ships - until the Yamato Class came out - weren't designed for extended operations, at least for the crew. Given that the IJN will be operating far from home ITTL, I think we might see ships getting cycled back and forth from Japan and the Middle East to be refitted for extended operations, while crew get additional training on damage control operations. In Europe, probably in British yards, and training provided by RN officers who can speak Japanese. That would certainly flatter the Japanese, especially given as you said, the IJN idolized the Royal Navy.
 
I’m not that sure. Chiang always had mixed motives during the whole anti-communist campaign, namely using the Reds as a tool to weaken the warlords. It’s the primary reason for Zhang Xueliang to launch a coup against Chiang: his own divisions were being spent in the anti-communist battles, but Chiang refused to replenish them.

An axis China is unlikely. Once conflict starts, between Japan and China, Germany had to pick one as it’s partner in the Far East. And Japan was much stronger than China.
When did that happen? 10,000 BCE?
No, before that
Depends on whether Homo Erectus and early Homo Sapiens were counted as “Chinese”. Some of their genes may have been passed down (according to the continuity with hybridization theory)
 
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SsgtC

Banned
The IJN had their share of atrocities IOTL, though IIRC that was more SNLF and less the IJN proper. It's not like IJN went on a habit of shelling cities on a whim because a pair of captains wanted to see which of them could destroy more buildings/kill more people. Working with the Allies might be enough to get the Admiralty to keep a tighter grip on its SNLF to keep them from going on rampage like the IJA.

One more thing the IJN would probably learn from the Allies is improved damage control and crew accommodations. The IJN was surprisingly similar to the Kaiserliche Marine in that their ships - until the Yamato Class came out - weren't designed for extended operations, at least for the crew. Given that the IJN will be operating far from home ITTL, I think we might see ships getting cycled back and forth from Japan and the Middle East to be refitted for extended operations, while crew get additional training on damage control operations. In Europe, probably in British yards, and training provided by RN officers who can speak Japanese. That would certainly flatter the Japanese, especially given as you said, the IJN idolized the Royal Navy.
Very true. I could see the SNLF, if kept in a tighter leash than IOTL, working very closely with the USMC and developing a shared amphibious doctrine that they would just be itching to test in Normandy.

Obviously, as you said, I think the ships of the IJN would get rapidly refitted for extended operations and damage control would rapidly improve. Working closely with the USN and RN would also give them access to things like ASDIC and improved ASW doctrine. By the time this WWII ends, the IJN would be a force to be reckoned with on par with the USN and RN in terms of power projection and ASW. They would also I think get hugely improved AAA. Access to things like Oerlikon 20mm and Bofors 40mm guns would make a huge difference.
 
Nationlist china makes Qing look like a low corruption state if you think about how much money ends up in middleman's pockets illigally
 
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