Egypt was a part of the Ottoman Empire up until the last few years, but for most of the 19th century Egypt was basically only part of the empire in theory. Under the Muhammad Ali Pasha dynasty, Egypt was effectively independent and then effectively a British colony. But what if Muhammad Ali Pasha of Egypt hadn't broken with the Sublime Porte? Let's assume it's because he dies before he can invade Syria. Does Egypt remain semi-independent or does it get tied closer to Constantinople during Tanzimat? Do the reforms that Ali Pasha started in Egypt stick around? More long term, would having access to Egypt's breadbasket and population centers keep the empire stronger than it otherwise would be? I'd imagine it might be enough to keep them from suffering as many defeats during the 19th century. Could it be enough to save them? What would Europe do if Egypt's cotton markets are in Turkish hands?
Would keeping Egypt save the Ottoman Empire?
- Thread starter ArchimedesCircle
- Start date
FillyofDelphi
Banned
The change in the geopolitical optics alone would be an incomprable boon to the Caliphate. There was certainly an agreement that the Ottomans were in the bottom half of the Great Powers during the time around the Napoelonic Wars among the nations of Europe, but they were hardly seen as the "Sick Man of Europe", or even particularly far behind their contemporaries in Eastern Europe, and they were actively and robustly attempting to push through reforms and absorb the lessons/structures of the period and their loses against Russia (Who certainly had bulk). Had they lost some peripheral territories? Sure, but Hungary and Crimea were fringe as far as Europe was concerned and geographically isolated, so its not like it appeared the Imperial core was vulnerable, and Greece was the three biggest powers in the world ganging up on them and occured while they were in the middle of restructuring the core of their military. Its only after Muhammad Ali, an upjumped vassal, seemed to so easily sweep them aside without any substantial forgien backing in the secure heartland of the Empire that the perception shifted decisisvely from "Its probably just a rough patch" to "Maybe the Empire is crumbling..." and thus removing the shield of prestige that dissuaded excessive forgien meddling, hesitation to form a real solid alliance/gurantee, and gave outlying leaders the perception they too could resist centeralization attempts and build their own petty dynasty and resulted in the Empire not having a period of calm and support to recover and reform for a new "right sized" Empire that could easily have stabilized as a respectable 5th or 6th most powerful state in the world (Tanzimat/Mejii) and a good partner/ally to a first-string Great Power (Britain, France, or Prussia depending on butterflies). A solid Ottoman control over Egypt would also encourage counteries with a interest in the region to get it with honey; getting friendly with Constantinople and protecting her in order to be willingly let into the area commerically and strategically rather than squabbling with other powers and trying to pry direct control of Egypt out from under everybody else), which would only further go a long way to having them properly integrated as member of the European alliance system/community rather than an outsider that's open season for New Imperialism.
What might happen to the Suez in this scenario? Would the Ottomans have an incentive or the capability to build it themselves, or do you think the most likely scenario is still a foreign built and controlled one?
FillyofDelphi
Banned
They'd still likely need forgien expertice and capital for such a large project, given their state resources are being funneled into internal industrial development and reforms, and they don't have the incentive to put forward all the capital themselves given the limited interest in power projection in East Asia. Still, France and Britain would both want it built, and I imagine the Ottomans would facilitate a joint project either between all three nations, or if relations between France and Britain are cold and they're in an alliance with one a duel project.
I wanted to vote for an intermediate option, which wasn't available in the poll, between the first and second options. I believe that Egypt would have been a significant benefit to the Ottoman Empire, but I also believe that it wouldn't have solved all their problems instantly on its own. On balance, I think it would have strengthened the financial basis of the state, by increasing its revenue and manpower, and also benefited the Empire by keeping the colonialists out. The Ottomans might even have been able to stop the Italians in Libya in 1912, if Egypt hadn't been occupied by the British at the time.
Overall a much better situation for the Ottomans, although perhaps not quite a 'guarantee' that everything will suddenly and magically go perfectly for them, nevertheless things would be better than OTL for sure.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
The taxbase, manpower and such would help a lot. If it would save the Empire depends on the individuals and when Egypt returns to Ottoman Control. Between 1805 and 1881 it can result in major butterflies.
An Abdulhamid II would be in a better position.
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FillyofDelphi
Banned
Infinately better. It's important to note that,for much of his early history, the future Sultan has fairly liberal and reformist ideals. However, when exposed to a geopolitical climate where showing even a moment of weakness or disorder lead to European power grabs/meddling he was obliged to try to strengthen the state in such a way that sought to create permenant stability... which slowed the rate of reform and lead to purging/crackdowns on potential internal allies that ultimately lead to the Empire rapidly slipping behind and leaving festering Nationalist wounds under the surface that were surpressed rather than solved. Actually having some safe margin for error would allow for the type of experimentation and risk taking investments that were nessicery to reform the state in line enough with the Western Europeans to not be perceived as a valid target for Imperialism (like Japan)