Would Jeb Bush Have Beaten Gore in 2000?

We get the JEB! meme 16 years earlier, that's for certain, and we may even get the Republicans as Gold instead of Red.
 
Actually, I'm of the opinion that Jeb could very well lose the nomination to McCain. A big reason he lost in 2016, aside from the split establishment vote, was that he was unwilling "to tear the other guy down" (his words) in order to get to the top. Dubya was nominated in part because he waged a bloody, desperate smear campaign against McCain in South Carolina after losing NH. When McCain brought this up in a debate, Dubya humiliated him and from then on the state was his. Jeb Bush wouldn't do either of these things, meaning he might lose the South Carolina Primary and McCain picks up momentum from there.


IMO McCain would face the same problem against Jeb that he did against GW--he relied too much on independents and crossover Democrats. You can't win the Republican nomination without Republicans! With the support of both the religious right and the bulk of the GOP Establishment, either Bush would be a favorite in SC. (I don't think polls showing McCain with a slight lead in the state immediately after NH should be taken too seriously--such surges following an unexpected victory are common--and frequently short-lived.)
 
IMO McCain would face the same problem against Jeb that he did against GW--he relied too much on independents and crossover Democrats. You can't win the Republican nomination without Republicans! With the support of both the religious right and the bulk of the GOP Establishment, either Bush would be a favorite in SC. (I don't think polls showing McCain with a slight lead in the state immediately after NH should be taken too seriously--such surges following an unexpected victory are common--and frequently short-lived.)

Then it's worth asking whether or not Jeb, like his brother, switches strategies in the event of a McCain victory in NH and goes on the attack. Bush's negative campaign, and McCain's poor response to his opponent's attack, is what gave him the landslide margin of victory in South Carolina.
 
So let's say that Jeb defeats Gore in the electoral college and the popular vote by a narrow margin. What next? I think Bush would push for a cap and trade bill, which both Dubya and Gore supported before the election and Dubya almost proposed to Congress before Cheney pursuaded him to drop the idea. I think Jeb would be more likely to listen to the intelligence community and pursue Al-Qaeda. He'd still be a conservative on social issues, but more moderate on the environment and foreign policy than his brother. Dubya was obsessed with removing Hussein from power, in part because he resented 41's decision not to do so in 1991. Jeb is less likely to do this given his admiration for 41, to whom he is much more similar ideologically and temperamentally than Dubya.
 
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