Would it have been better for Brittain to make peace after the fall of France?

[Tibi088]

So I know that humanity would be off most likely worse.

But what about the British and the British Empire? Because I was thinking if they can make a kinda white peace - most important being that they are not left at the mercy of the germans - they might be better off. Hitler might agree to this as he wanted peace to attack the soviets.

This doesnt mean that they dont support the Soviets materially and maybe even reenter the war later if they see it either as necessery or opportune. But this would avoid the battle of Brittain and the bombings, and Brittain could build up its strength undisturbed. It would mean interesting changes to the far east as well.

 

[Jukra]

So I know that humanity would be off most likely worse.

But what about the British and the British Empire? Because I was thinking if they can make a kinda white peace - most important being that they are not left at the mercy of the germans - they might be better off. Hitler might agree to this as he wanted peace to attack the soviets.

This doesnt mean that they dont support the Soviets materially and maybe even reenter the war later if they see it either as necessery or opportune. But this would avoid the battle of Brittain and the bombings, and Brittain could build up its strength undisturbed. It would mean interesting changes to the far east as well.

If you had 100% hindsight and the person who made the peace had dictatorial powers, then it's an ok solution. However, based on what was known at the time continuing the war was a better option, as there would be no guarantees about

a) Hitler honouring any treaty
b) Hitler not beating Soviet Union if and when they should be at war
c) enough political support to re-enter the war at a suitable moment
d) Unknown technological advancements for Germany in meantime, such as German Luftwaffe built up to a such a level that leveling cities would be possible or German Navy built up on such a level it could really strangle British trade. Or even worse, a combination of both, an air-sea war Britain could not protect herself against.

Nevertheless, there's a possibility, explored in such tl's as "Halifax" that Britain and indeed Europe might have been better off, but I would not bet on it.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

... as there would be no guarantees about

a) Hitler honouring any treaty
...

Given Hitler's record it's guaranteed he'd break any treaty.

 

[Tibi088]

Given Hitler's record it's guaranteed he'd break any treaty.

Not if he has his hands full with fighting the russians who are receiving british and american war materials in great quantities. If he can win that one an the whole mess of his empire doesnt collapse under the exhaustion it cost them to do so than yes, he will break it. But than the british too wouldnt sign this peace with any plans on keeping it for the long run.

 

[Jukra]

. But than the british too wouldnt sign this peace with any plans on keeping it for the long run.

The idea sounds terrific if you're at a gambler's table or you are Dear Leader of UK. In a democracy any policy is at force as long as the politician, in a parliamentary democracy as long as the PM. While, say, Halifax, might well prepare for a rematch what guarantees are there that his follower, or follower of his follower, has other ideas?

And how about risk to Britain. We know, that Hitler attacked Russia. What if he doesn't but decides to slug it out with Britain first, this time rebuilding forces for, say, two years?

 

[TDM]

No way is Hitler (even having secured his European empire/Lebensraum) going to live with a Global British Empire. Soon or later it going to get into a My international colony or My navy is bigger, dick measuring exercise.

Besides he's already in North Africa due to his ally Italy (who most certainly will have designs on British empire territory), and Japan is going to do what it going to do.

On the UK suing for peace but coming back in later. I don't think Hitler is that dumb, I'm pretty sure peace here is going to mean the removal of the RN, and "reparations".


On the wider point WW2 = end of British Empire. Personally I think The British empire is going anyway. Direct control, of India is already loosening prior to the war. The US is opposed to it. It might take longer than OTL but I think such overseas Empire is doomed in the C20th.

Now avoid WW1 and I think you can keep the empire going for longer!

 

[GarethC]

Look at it this way, in June 1940, Germany and Italy have conquered Albania, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland and a bit more than half of France. Hungary, Romania, Spain, the USSR, and Yugoslavia are Axis-friendly neutrals.
That's a lot of economic power if they have a chance to integrate it. Hitler has also repeatedly broken treaties he signed, so there really isn't any basis for trust - Hitler currently has war, and as soon as he doesn't comply with his treaty obligations he'll get war again. Additionally, Japan's FIC pressure threatens to unhinge the entire premise of British defence in the Far East.

If the Axis are allowed to settle down to put their armies into their factories and start churning out warships, in two years they will be able to dispute the Med and the North Sea. Britain can't get into the Baltic to destroy the KM at anchor, but also can't take the whole RN into the Med to curbstomp the RM or over to Singapore to curbstomp the IJN (assuming that the autumn 1940 RN actually can curbstomp the IJN, which is another topic) until there is no KM in the Baltic, so giving Hitler and Mussolini time to take the money from their conquests and spend it on new battleships seems like a really bad idea.

So Britain needs any peace to be one that doesn't leave the Axis so victorious that they can come back for round two at a time of their choosing with enough force to take Blighty.

Getting Hitler to accept that kind of peace is the tricky bit. Obviously, given that Hitler's actual aim is to have a peaceful backyard when he does his drang nach osten, Britain has a stronger negotiating hand than it actually realises.

So, if they agree on German withdrawal from Norway, the Low Countries, Denmark, and France except Elsass-Lothringen, while retaining Poland. Britain might actually insist on A-L staying French, to be honest. Th

If the Italians haven't invaded British Somaliland yet, then they won't get it. If they have, then Britain will swap it back in exchange from withdrawing from Italian Libya.

Equally, if Japan hasn't invaded French Indochina yet, then they won't get it either. If they have, then they will withdraw, but the French will stop rail shipments to the Nationalist Chinese from Haiphong, until they've got a new colonial corps with some armor shipped over, at which point the sales of French surplus for American money will restart.

Note that there will be no Tizard mission, nor will Tube Alloys be shared with the USA. Some of the Vinson-Walsh naval expansions may not come to pass if the truce is fast enough (Germany needs to announce withdrawal from France, and Japan abandon its pressure on FIC, by mid-July 1940)

So basically this is Hitler gambling again, particularly that he'll be able to do again exactly what he did last time - drive east with mobile warfare, take Moscow, and force Soviet surrender before France can re-arm enough to break the Siegfried Line. He's the party with the biggest appetite for risk, and his judgement has been great so far.

Then there's a year of drama. Finland comes a plucky second in the Winter War, the Baltics cease to be, France and the Netherlands rearm tepidly, Japan stews with rage and tries to build carriers even faster.
Hitler points to Anglo-French arms manufacture as the rationale for the German ramp up in early 1941, Stalin may or may not believe him.
Barbarossa goes off on schedule and France ramps up its war production away from a colonial campaign in Vietnam towards a rematch with Germany.

Now, the key bits are that the Luftwaffe in particular isn't punished but the BoB, and some resources used to replace its losses can instead be directed to increasing the mechanisation of the Heer.
With no Western Desert campaign, Britain has quite a few tanks to put into a new BEF and quite a few planes to become a new AASF. It also has quite a few older planes to either ship out East or give to the French... to ship out East.

A key question is what Japan does. It can't stick to the OTL timetable without FIC from which to transit Thailand to attack Malaya. Hitler may ask Japan to try a Franco-Japanese War in June 1941, but that might well be intercepted by Sorge before his execution and be the sort of thing that tips off Stalin, though whether that helps is questionable. Japan may also try to stick with the Dec 1941 timetable, but starting with FIC and the Philppines, with Malaya and the DEI as stage 2, trying to postpone war with Britain. All choices are bad, but waiting for that Two-Ocean Navy Act to be built is worse.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Not if he has his hands full with fighting the russians who are receiving british and american war materials in great quantities. ....

OTL he choose to break the treaty with the USSR despite being up to his neck in a war with Britain. This was a guy who did not think the same way as you or I.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

.... But than the british too wouldnt sign this peace with any plans on keeping it for the long run.

Agree three. Revisiting the Napoleonic Wars.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

... We know, that Hitler attacked Russia. What if he doesn't but decides to slug it out with Britain first, this time rebuilding forces for, say, two years?

A oft discussed option. Lots of ways that can go.

 

[Driftless]

Not if he has his hands full with fighting the russians who are receiving british and american war materials in great quantities. If he can win that one an the whole mess of his empire doesnt collapse under the exhaustion it cost them to do so than yes, he will break it. But than the british too wouldnt sign this peace with any plans on keeping it for the long run.

Whatever peace deal the British would have made with the Nazis would assuredly proscribe the British helping anyone in a fight with the Nazis. Probably proscribes their receiving military aid from non-commonwealth sources too. Thirdly, if there's no Lend-Lease for the British, I'd think it very unlikely the US lifts a finger to help the Soviets....

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

.., I'd think it very unlikely the US lifts a finger to help the Soviets....

OTL the USSR had been negotiating and purchasing 'artillery' material' from the US when rolling back the Nuetrality Acts allowed in 1939. As soon as the German attack occurred negotiation of LL started and direct purchases ramped up. A large portion of the material shipped in 1942 was planned and scheduled before December 1941.

 

[Mikestone8]

It would be seen as a confession of defeat and morale would have been shattered. Not good.

 

[RightHoJeeves]

I see no reason to make peace as long as the US remains pro-British and willing to provide as much material assistance as possible. While the US can't be counted on to enter the war they are going to be as friendly-neutral as possible with FDR in charge.

 

[DaveB]

These are points that I’ve made before in threads of this kind, but they generally seem to be ignored.

On the UK suing for peace but coming back in later. I don't think Hitler is that dumb, I'm pretty sure peace here is going to mean the removal of the RN, and "reparations".

Whatever peace deal the British would have made with the Nazis would assuredly proscribe the British helping anyone in a fight with the Nazis.

Assuming Dunkirk goes as OTL (and probably even if it doesn’t) there is no way that Germany can enforce any conditions like these on Britain. The RN is remaining intact, and Britain can outbuild Germany - remember Britain only has seven battleships and six fleet carriers fitting out or on the slips at the beginning of 1940. If there is an outbreak of peace all these are getting completed ASAP. If Hitler won’t discuss peace on British terms then it’s simple to revert to hostilities as in OTL, but if hostilities have ceased, during any time taken up by negotiations, Britain has been able to rest, re-organise and re-equip troops evacuated at Dunkirk, build fighters and ASW escorts as fast as possible, and import food and raw materials from the empire. Also, no one knows it, but at this time Britain is way ahead of anyone else on nuclear weapons. A short break in hostilities probably favours Britain far more than Germany. The only risks are possible adverse effects on morale and US opinion, however, if we have a few talks and then tell Hitler to fuck off because we’re never gonna believe him ever again, those effects will probably be reversed quite quickly.

 

[McPherson]

These are points that I’ve made before in threads of this kind, but they generally seem to be ignored.

Assuming Dunkirk goes as OTL (and probably even if it doesn’t) there is no way that Germany can enforce any conditions like these on Britain. The RN is remaining intact, and Britain can outbuild Germany - remember Britain only has seven battleships and six fleet carriers fitting out or on the slips at the beginning of 1940. If there is an outbreak of peace all these are getting completed ASAP. If Hitler won’t discuss peace on British terms then it’s simple to revert to hostilities as in OTL, but if hostilities have ceased, during any time taken up by negotiations, Britain has been able to rest, re-organise and re-equip troops evacuated at Dunkirk, build fighters and ASW escorts as fast as possible, and import food and raw materials from the empire. Also, no one knows it, but at this time Britain is way ahead of anyone else on nuclear weapons. A short break in hostilities probably favours Britain far more than Germany. The only risks are possible adverse effects on morale and US opinion, however, if we have a few talks and then tell Hitler to fuck off because we’re never gonna believe him ever again, those effects will probably be reversed quite quickly.

As long as those gaseous diffusion plants are in Luftwaffe range, Tube Alloys is going nowhere. It is either Canada or Australia as an option and neither of them has the electrical grid for it, so guess where Tube Alloys inevitably has to go?

This is the days before centrifuges.

 

[Garrison]

So I know that humanity would be off most likely worse.

But what about the British and the British Empire? Because I was thinking if they can make a kinda white peace - most important being that they are not left at the mercy of the germans - they might be better off.

Thing is that a lot of the colonial possessions are not going to be thrilled about prolonging the British Empire, with India being at the head of the queue. The idea of Britain being better off seems to be most popular with a certain strand of right-wing politicians/historians who see the Empire as some golden age that should have been preserved at any cost.

Also allowing a country to have undisputed hegemony over the European continent would be the very thing British foreign policy had sought to avoid for at least 200 hundred years. Such a hostile power controlling the channel coast was an intolerable threat to British maritime trade, which was the life blood of the British economy. They fought Napoleon to prevent it, they went to war in 1914 to stop it, Giving the Germans the Atlantic Coast of France to use for naval bases and the time to build up their U-Boat forces is a recipe for disaster, leading either to Britain being forced into ever greater concessions or restarting the war with no guarantee of more favourable conditions. In 1940 the British were planning to fight on even though they assumed Operation Dynamo would save a fraction of the number of men eventually rescued. A peace deal would either require to Britain to be in such dire straits that it was willing to subordinate itself to Germany, or Hitler making an impossibly generous offer. Short of those options any peace negotiation is going to fizzle out.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

As long as those gaseous diffusion plants are in Luftwaffe range, Tube Alloys is going nowhere. It is either Canada or Australia as an option and neither of them has the electrical grid for it, so guess where Tube Alloys inevitably has to go?

This is the days before centrifuges.

Did they know about the plants OTL? Were there any targeted raids on them? If not, and I’m not aware of them if there were, what makes them aware of them ATL? The Tube Alloys were a highly secret project and the Germans didn’t have the know-how OTL to build their own, so how far can they guesstimate the British will reach?

 

[McPherson]

It does not take much reconnaissance to figure this out.

US plant.

but...

Where in Britain would one put this?

And hide it?

Or this?

Herr Doktor Werner Heisenberg would instantly recognize it and stain his trousers.

 

[American Warrior]

So I know that humanity would be off most likely worse.

But what about the British and the British Empire? Because I was thinking if they can make a kinda white peace - most important being that they are not left at the mercy of the germans - they might be better off. Hitler might agree to this as he wanted peace to attack the soviets.

This doesnt mean that they dont support the Soviets materially and maybe even reenter the war later if they see it either as necessery or opportune. But this would avoid the battle of Brittain and the bombings, and Brittain could build up its strength undisturbed. It would mean interesting changes to the far east as well.

Better for whom? I mean, it might be better for Britain since it won't bankrupt the country and thus cause the country to quickly lose its empire afterwards (though Britain was likely to eventually lose its empire in any case).

However, it would be very bad for the Soviet Union since it is going to get pushed back beyond the Urals. This would be especially true if tens of millions of Soviet people are going to get deported from the European part of the Soviet Union to the territories west of the Urals. How exactly would you like it if your homeland ended up under enemy rule and a lot of your people were subsequently expelled from this territory?