Yes, he would have been able to cobble together the old New Deal coalition for a few more years. The New Left really wouldn't have anywhere to go but to sit out 1972, but Humphrey would have held on to labor (for whom it can be expected he would have produced something) and thus a part of the socially conservative voting bloc that defected to Nixon. A big factor is what happened with Vietnam. If he produced a peace treaty and meaningful troop withdrawals without any real stench of defeat, that, plus what was a decent economy, should get him reelected.
Would Humphrey Have Been Re-Elected in 1972?
- Thread starter Amadeus
- Start date
I think he has a 55-60% chance at winning reelection overall, a 55% chance if Rs don't nominate Reagan and 70% chance if they do nominate him. Meanwhile, as for Rs it's almost impossible for them to lose 76 if they don't win 72.
The state of the economy may save Humphrey's bacon in '72, but 1976 will be a Republican year. IMO even if a Republican is elected in 1972 he has a chance of winning again in '76, given that Ford almost won that year despite the economic slump, Watergate, and the fall of Saigon. It's a wonder that election wasn't a landslide instead of the nailbiter that it was.
Carter was that bad of a candidate in the general, which is baffling because he did the primaries brilliantly, and Ford ran a pretty good campaign despite anything and everything going against him. Plus, the economy (abet slowly) was starting to rebound in 1976.
IMO it was a similar situation to 1948, when the opposition should have won big but the incumbent did relatively well due to the weakness of his opponent. Had Ford started to actively campaign before Labor Day, and had he never made the gaffe about Eastern Europe, he would probably have beaten Carter.