Would Hitler have gone to war even if defeat was inevitable?

Presuming the British, French and the Soviets manage to secure an alliance against Germany in August 1939 which puts Soviet troops on Polish soil, how would Hitler have reacted? Would he still have gone to war in 1939/40 despite the fact that victory was now almost impossible, or would he have instead chosen to ride out the coming economic storm and hope for the best?
 
If Hitler really thought such an alliance would go to war, he would not invade Poland.

Hitler thought that the only valid to go to war was lebensraum - to leave the people a greater homeland they could call his own. He dismissed wars fought for other purposes as senseless because they would not provide any benefits to the country. Indeed, such wars weakened the country by killings its able men. His thought on such matters are actually more sophisticated than many people think. Hitler in 1939 was not the Parkinson's deranged bitter madman he would be by 1945.

He certainly would not have entered a two front war. He only invaded the Soviet Union in 1941 because 1) it would have been the only real land war he was facing at the time, and 2) he did not think the Soviet Union would survive after 6 months.

Met with such obstacles, I think Hitler would explore other diplomatic options. He did want a short little victorious war to blood his armies and install some fighting spirit in his people. And he needed the plunder to keep the German economy going. But he never intended to start a major war in 1939 (he planned for one in 1942 or 43). And he certainly did not want a two front war.

I think Hitler would rely on diplomacy to splinter Britain & France from the USSR. He would probably hope that the presence of the Red Army in Poland would prove disruptive, and that some situation would arise fairly soon that he could divide his enemies and go to war against someone. But he would want that to be a limited war until Germany's rearming program was completed in 1942. Given the economic issues he would have between then and later, who knows if he could meet those goals.
 
Poland is not allowing Soviet troops onto their soil in any kind of 1939 Eastern Europe we would recognize

But if the Soviet Union publicly announced an alliance with France/UK AND signed on the Polish gaurantee; Hitler would certainly reconsider the enterprise... he might sit and wait for the coalition to break up (potentially inevitable if Stalin decides to wail on some of his neighbors or ideological/political shake ups in France/UK which make the governments less enthralled with being allied to the bastion of communism)... or he decides to wail on someone who doesn't have an entente security agreement (maybe Yugoslavia?)
 
If the SU would have guaranteed the Polish independence(meaning no Molotov-Ribbentrop pact) Germany would have never attacked.
 
I think Hitler would rely on diplomacy to splinter Britain & France from the USSR. He would probably hope that the presence of the Red Army in Poland would prove disruptive, and that some situation would arise fairly soon that he could divide his enemies and go to war against someone. But he would want that to be a limited war until Germany's rearming program was completed in 1942. Given the economic issues he would have between then and later, who knows if he could meet those goals.

Yeah that was pretty much what I thought, I doubt he would have been able to take on the three in 1942 any more than in 1939, probably less in fact.

Poland is not allowing Soviet troops onto their soil in any kind of 1939 Eastern Europe we would recognize

Probably one of the worst thing's that could happen to Poland. I admit it's implausible, even if the allies threatened to cut off support altogether, that the Poles wouldn't have told them to bugger off. For the sake of argument they accept it as a (barely) lesser evil however, as I'm trying to create a situation where it basically be impossible to Soviet troops not to be involved from the start.

But if the Soviet Union publicly announced an alliance with France/UK AND signed on the Polish gaurantee; Hitler would certainly reconsider the enterprise... he might sit and wait for the coalition to break up (potentially inevitable if Stalin decides to wail on some of his neighbors or ideological/political shake ups in France/UK which make the governments less enthralled with being allied to the bastion of communism)... or he decides to wail on someone who doesn't have an entente security agreement (maybe Yugoslavia?)

A German attack on Yugoslavia? That would be interesting as a first move, although likely still a disaster for Hitler.
 
A German attack on Yugoslavia? That would be interesting as a first move, although likely still a disaster for Hitler.

I consider it unlikely. Hitler considered the Balkans to be a sphere of Italian expansion, not German. It would not lead to any new German lebensraum, and Mussolini would not have liked it. It would also be harder to justify to the German audience at home than a campaign to eliminate the Polish Corridor and retake Danzig. Such considerations were important in 1939.

Plus, it would do nothing to break up the UK/French/Polish/USSR alliance.

I think the real key is to figure out what happens to the German economy while Hitler waits for the coalition to break up, and what are Hitler's options in the meantime.

The only hope I see for Hitler is if Stalin creates enough resentment in Europe that the Poles and West break from him, allowing Hitler to lead an "anti-Bolshevik crusade" against the Soviet Union first. Without the confidence building in Poland and France for the Wehrmacht though, I don't know if the German generals would ever agree to such a bold move though.
 
A Different pact...

This is actually a fascinating POD though I'm sure it's been done on here in the dim and distant past.

The Nazi-Soviet Pact in OTL is usually talked about in relation to Poland but there were a lot of other secret (at the time) clauses which effectively divided eastern Europe between Berlin and Moscow.

Had Stalin sought a pact with Britain and France, it would have been much harder for him to get the kind of territorial concessions (eg: the occupation of the Baltic States) he got from Hitler. I just can't see such a pact.

Although....

The guarantee to defend and respect Polish sovereignty notwithstanding, such a pact butterflies away the war with Finland though it wouldn't stop German ambitions in that area.

How would these play out ? Would the new allies seek to actively defend Norwegian neutrality and prevent the Germans getting hold of Swedish iron ore ?

I can't see the Halifax-Molotov-Bonnet Pact including a provision on Norwegian neutrality or Swedish iron ore supplies. If it didn't and Hitler made a grab for these on April 9th, would that trigger a declaration of war by Britain and France and would Russia be compelled to join in ?

I feel a TL coming on.....
 
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