Would Germany had betrayed Italy in a Post-Axis Victory?

[Reggieperrin]

Italy doesn't have anything south of the Mediterranean that Germany really needs or wants. Germany has Russian oil etc.

OTOH Germany is going to eventually want Italy to do things Italy is uncomfortable with and expect compliance. More of a "I am altering the deal. Pray I don't alter it further." situation.

Indeed. In bizarro axis-win world there would be:

1. an incompetent set of tyrannical madmen ruling everything north of the alps from the Atlantic to the steppes,
2. a set of slightly less vicious but even more incompetent tyrants running all the impoverished backward bits round the med and down the Red Sea

All other things being equal, the first set of madmen are well ahead and will rapidly pull further ahead since they have far more industry, more population victims, with better education, more agricultural land, etc etc etc. They just stole a well-maintained F150 while the guys to the south stole a beat-up Pinto with a suspicious weld line and mismatched colors between the front and rear half.

Pretty quickly things will devolve into a familiar looking ”special relationship“ where Italy can do whatever it likes so long as it’s unimportant, but otherwise does exactly what Germany wants.

 

[Mar-e-chal]

I think italy would betray germany (or vice versa) sooner or later, but that depends on what germany or italy does to the other.

 

[Clandango]

Hitler being Hitler and nazis being total assholes yes, Germany is going to betray Italy eventually. Not immediately but at some point on the future if then Germany doesn't fall to post-Hitler civil war.

Probably at first stage Germany would attack to Nothern Italy and annex region, expel all of Italians and puppetise rest of the country.

You will need to specify how much they are taking. As well as how they are populating it. They were Germanizing people left right and center going East at least initially as they didn’t have the people to populate it. Hitler and many others saw Italy as being one of the highest ranked countries history and race wise and according to Hitler’s Table Talks (though that book has certain flaws in translation and whether Martin Bormann wrote things down as they were actually said) there was mention of how Italy had poor stock sprinkled around the same way the Germans did in Southern Germany. Still, the Roman and far northern parts were seen as pure Aryan. If they annex the area they would probably want that racial stock. Or at least they would want the Italian artists, workshop workers, businesses, etc. zwithout the tourism, educstoin, and luxury good stuff that required aitslian manpower it might not be seen as worth it for the Germans to take. Outside of maybe Istria and the other areas made as Operation Zones after Italy switched sides. We will need to remember the Italians will still have their own armed forces though, and also think about the other countries in the Balkans. Do the Germans now have to deal with having everyone on edge? A lot of agreements among the Axis countries involved getting rid of their Germans, sending them over to zgermsny so they could settle the East with them, as well as so the Germans didn’t make claims on their land like they did everyone else’s.

 

[Chapman]

As suggested by others, my thought had always been that the Germans would be the dominant partner in any post-war situation and ultimately swallow up the Italians, albeit somewhat slowly. There could be points of conflict between the two but ultimately I think they would want to "Germanize" the Italians and absorb them into the Reich. If we choose to assume they are in fact the dominant partner then I think it's also safe to assume the German language, German culture, politics, etc. will be mirrored to some extent in the "New Roman Empire." If Nazi Germany manages to continue to survive in the long term then I think they have a good chance at accomplishing this.

 

[lucon50]

Could ideological tensions over religion be a source of conflict between Germany and Italy, particularly in a post-Hitler scenario with the anti-Christian SS occultists in charge of the Nazi regime?

 

[thaddeus]

while Hitler had a high regard for Mussolini, he termed the royal court in Rome as a "nest of vipers"

possible the Italian Social Republic still comes into being

can imagine Germany is going to want more control over the Italian fleet and more production out of Italian industry. often mentioned Mussolini did not have the kind of authority Hitler or Stalin did, there could be a pro-German coup or reordering that if it doesn't remove, reduces the King of Italy's authority.

 

[lukedalton]

can imagine Germany is going to want more control over the Italian fleet and more production out of Italian industry. often mentioned Mussolini did not have the kind of authority Hitler or Stalin did, there could be a pro-German coup or reordering that if it doesn't remove, reduces the King of Italy's authority.

Difficult the pro-German faction was not that big and in general even Benny don't fully trused Adolf as the Vallo Alpino (the defensive fortification line) showed...well it was populary called the 'Linea Non mi Fido' (Don't Trust you line but in italian a play on the Siegfried line or Linea Sigfrido) for a reason.
In general it's very probable that the economic dependence on Germany will make Italy pliable enough but it also big enough that forcing too strong deal will not be possible basically a satellite that you must treat with civilty and sometime can say no

 

[Monk78]

There are. The simplest is America passing the strict neutrality laws.

Cash and carry, where the British were allowed to pay cash and carry goods on her own ships, was highly controversial, passed
With a sunset provision and would have been allowed to lapse buy many.

An America that doesn't confront Japan in the Far East is also possible.

I could give many others

So in your timeline US is neutral and UK does not surrender Unconditionally then how is that victory in ww2 for axis? Maybe victorious Germany in a European land war yes

 

[Aphrodite]

So in your timeline US is neutral and UK does not surrender Unconditionally then how is that victory in ww2 for axis? Maybe victorious Germany in a European land war yes

Who said the Britain wouldn't surrender unconditionally?

If the Soviets are out and America neutral, the Germans will cut off what little trade Britain has left, bomb her cities into the ground and open the door for an invasion.

Sealion isn't impossible, it's just in a world where Sealion is possible, it is unnecessary. Britain will surrender when she has had enough

 

[Monk78]

Who said the Britain wouldn't surrender unconditionally?

If the Soviets are out and America neutral, the Germans will cut off what little trade Britain has left, bomb her cities into the ground and open the door for an invasion.

Sealion isn't impossible, it's just in a world where Sealion is possible, it is unnecessary. Britain will surrender when she has had enough

Germany has no navy and strategic airforce so it’s an impossibility plus to take Soviets out mean these 2 branches are neglected even more than OTL

 

[Aphrodite]

Germany has no navy and strategic airforce so it’s an impossibility plus to take Soviets out mean these 2 branches are neglected even more than OTL

Germany had plenty of air and naval assets. This "Britain can't lose" theory is simply bunk

The Luftwaffe supported by the industrial capacity of the continent is simply going to overwhelm an isolated RAF.

Add in the German U-boats sinking merchant ships at will, air strikes at critical industries in Britain, the inability of Britain to get any overseas supplies, the end of the British Empire is inevitable without America and the Soviets.

To take out a Soviet Union not receiving Lend Lease would be rather easy for the Germans.

 

[thaddeus]

can imagine Germany is going to want more control over the Italian fleet and more production out of Italian industry. often mentioned Mussolini did not have the kind of authority Hitler or Stalin did, there could be a pro-German coup or reordering that if it doesn't remove, reduces the King of Italy's authority.

Difficult the pro-German faction was not that big and in general even Benny don't fully trused Adolf as the Vallo Alpino (the defensive fortification line) showed...well it was populary called the 'Linea Non mi Fido' (Don't Trust you line but in italian a play on the Siegfried line or Linea Sigfrido) for a reason.
In general it's very probable that the economic dependence on Germany will make Italy pliable enough but it also big enough that forcing too strong deal will not be possible basically a satellite that you must treat with civilty and sometime can say no

you are probably correct about Italy ending up as a satellite (with benefits! lol), as I discounted the fact the UK is out of the conflict, there would be no ongoing N. Africa campaign, no mass of German troops in Italy?

can imagine Germany would still want to maintain the Vichy regime in power, so they would not back any dismemberment of the French colonial empire? that might leave German-Italian relations rather cool?

 

[Darzin]

The Germans never had any desire to conquer any of the Italian territories except Croatia. And I don't think that will change plus invading Italy from Germany is hard.

I could see Italy being a junior partner or even a Sino/Soviet type split later on but I don't see a German invasion happening.

 

[Captain Homicide]

I could see Italy being a junior partner or even a Sino/Soviet type split later on but I don't see a German invasion happening.

In all my research (and I’ve done a ridiculous amount) I’ve seen German plans and proposals to invade Sweden and Switzerland after the war but never Italy.

 

[Enigmajones]

I don't think betray is the right word. If the Germans win the war and establish dominance over the European continent I could see it depending if the Italians overthrow Mussolini. I expect that if Mussolini is alive, Italy will quickly transition to junior partner in the planned European Community, with som semblance of self respect. To be honest I would wonder if the Croatians could campaign for ending occupation, since it was originally intended as a German Italian co-dominion.

 

[Captain Homicide]

To be honest I would wonder if the Croatians could campaign for ending occupation, since it was originally intended as a German Italian co-dominion.

I can only imagine what the Ustaše would do if the Reich won the war. As IOTL it would make A Nightmare on Elm Street look tame.

 

[GOU Limiting Factor]

It depends on the timeframe, the personalities involved, and the respective successors to the two dictators - as well as which ideological factions within both states end up holding the levers of power. Different factions would use more or less force, rule more or less directly, and with varying levels of brutality, efficiency, and success. But realistically, Germany is the Axis Big Dog, and Italy very much is not, so it's only a matter of time before Italy becomes more client/vassal than partner.

A guy like Kaltenbrunner and a guy like Speer would have pretty different approaches (to pick two people as representing ideological polarities rather than likely leaders), but I don't think you could reasonably question that they'd both see Italy primarily in terms of how to best exploit Italy for their own ends. A Führer more in the 'Kaltenbrunner' mode might leave a hell of a lot more bodies in the streets doing it than one in a 'Speer' mode, but either would get what they wanted.

 

[Raferty]

I would imagine at some point a NSDAP gvt would start raising questions about South Tyrol, and would try to ameliorate Italy by offering it concessions elsewhere. I see no reason why this couldn't work - and it's not as if Hitler was dogmatic on the question, as he changed his opinion several times

My guess is Germany might get miffed about Italian screwups in administration of the Balkans and take a firmer hand and this is where things could get nasty

It's worth noting though that the German economy in a victory TL is going to need export markets for industrial goods and Italy is going to be the biggest - the Lebensraum project will be ideological rather than economically rewarding in any way, but it is where German political energy will be pointed, along with a massive expansion of the welfare offer to Germans, powered by slave labor and looting. The actual hard business of running an economy will still however be dependent on industrial exports.

My guess is no breakup until Mussolini or Hitler depart from the scene - any hint of reformism on one side not mirrored by the other will end with betrayal

 

[TxAggie]

If the Nazis have literally all of western, central, and eastern Europe in their grasp, there's nothing that southern Europe would offer them that they don't have. Italy would be a very, very junior partner to super-Germany at that point.

Italian self-preservation would pretty much demand doing whatever the Germans ask, when they ask it. Picking a fight with Berlin would mean the absolute ruin of their country, OTOH, complying would make things go smoothly.

 

[GOU Limiting Factor]

Libyan oil might be an exception there, if either Axis power lasts long enough to need it.