Would Germany Ever Split Up Austria-Hungary?

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Belgium keep staggering around, I fail to see why Austria-Hungary couldn't survive.

Belgium is a viable democracy and his neighbour don't have any intention of dividing his territory...A-H is not so lucky. Plus i fail to see the Hasburg permit any kind of democraticization or extension of the suffrage in the empire, and more time pass (a decade or two) more this become important and can bring a lot of thing not really pleaseant

There was no significant rebellions in the last half century of the empire until the end of 4 year of conflict with attrocious losses. In fact a majority of the population prefered that the empire kept united as many of the minorities saw the alternatives to the Empire as worse. A potential collapse of Austria-Hungary will come from external pressure.


1917 is when the new treaty with the Magyar must be signed...and what they want is basically Hungary become de facto independent, yes the A-H army can and will intervene and beat the Hungarians, but this can create a scenario where other powers intervene or even sparks more internal unreast. The other minority even if they don't want leave the empire want a deal similat to the Magyar one and this can erode the Hasburg authority...a big no no for the big wig in Vienna.
The A-H empire as Imperial Russia and the Ottoman Empire (but in a lesser extent) where nation who had ended their historical cycle and where at the last rope.
 
I only see Germany annexing the Empire of Austria (the German parts, the Bohemian plateau, and Slovenia) that were historically part of the Reich while allowing the Hungarians to rule the other parts of the A-H Empire (including Slovakia, Transylvania, and Croatia). Bosnia-Herzegovina would probably be given to Hungary as well. Galicia is a weird outlier. It was technically part of Austria, but makes better sense to be part of Hungary.

Germany would certainly not split it up with any other powers.

I don't see the Germans doing this to be predatory, but only as a last resort to retain influence in the area in a scenario where the Empire was dissolving under interal strain or the Habsburg monarchy had collapsed.
 
I only see Germany annexing the Empire of Austria (the German parts, the Bohemian plateau, and Slovenia) that were historically part of the Reich while allowing the Hungarians to rule the other parts of the A-H Empire (including Slovakia, Transylvania, and Croatia). Bosnia-Herzegovina would probably be given to Hungary as well. Galicia is a weird outlier. It was technically part of Austria, but makes better sense to be part of Hungary.

Germany would certainly not split it up with any other powers.

I don't see the Germans doing this to be predatory, but only as a last resort to retain influence in the area in a scenario where the Empire was dissolving under interal strain or the Habsburg monarchy had collapsed.
This. It would be a last ditch course of action dependent on things essentially going to hell in the Empire. Otherwise, expect it to be propped up. Another concern on having a Fifth Kingdom under the Habsburgs, is that it essentially puts the whole German Empire into a risky corner. People with problems concerning the autocratic Empire could certainly try to prop up the Habsburg as the rightful emperors. Plus the Catholic kingdoms might also have more to gain with the Habsburgs being in the German Empire. It's certainly something the Hohenzollerns won't like much.
 

ingemann

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Belgium is a viable democracy and his neighbour don't have any intention of dividing his territory...A-H is not so lucky. Plus i fail to see the Hasburg permit any kind of democraticization or extension of the suffrage in the empire, and more time pass (a decade or two) more this become important and can bring a lot of thing not really pleaseant

France wanted a pierce of Belgium the half century of its history, and as for Belgian democracy, it wasn't like the Flemish had a lot of power there either until after WWI.

1917 is when the new treaty with the Magyar must be signed...and what they want is basically Hungary become de facto independent, yes the A-H army can and will intervene and beat the Hungarians, but this can create a scenario where other powers intervene or even sparks more internal unreast. The other minority even if they don't want leave the empire want a deal similat to the Magyar one and this can erode the Hasburg authority...a big no no for the big wig in Vienna.

What power intervene? Serbia and Romania? I doubt Russia would intervene, as stupid as the support of Serbia was in real history, I think it's unlikely that they would support the Serbians if they're stupid enough to try to invade Austria-Hungary, Italy may be greedy and stupid enough, but if WWI show anything, it was that Austria really didn't need to worry about Italy invading them. Romania is really not a serious threat Transsylvania is nightmare to invade from the Romanian side and Bukovina was heavily fortified. So we may at worst see Austria fight a war with Hungary, while Romania, Serbia and Italy invade, even if Germany decide to stay neutral, I would still put my money on Austria. First they would likely move on the Magyars, which would likely collapse, the Italians would try to invade, which would end as ugly as in WWI, the Serbs would likely have some success, mostly because it would be Hungary they would invade, but the Croats and Bosniaks would likely do quite well against them, the Romanian invasion of Bukovina would fail miserable. After the Magyars hhave been crushed the Austrians would move against the Serbs, which did well in WWI because they were in a defensible position, here they are in the offensive in the flat land of southern Hungary, while another part fought in Bosnia which likely have turned into a earlier version of the Yugoslavian Wars. So I expect the Serbs to be decimated with much of northern Serbia occupied until a peace are reached. At last they would move on Italy, and I think we all know what to expect there.

The A-H empire as Imperial Russia and the Ottoman Empire (but in a lesser extent) where nation who had ended their historical cycle and where at the last rope.

Why, because you say so? In fact if we look at WWI we have several empires collapsing Russia, OE, AH and Germany, but no one say that Germany was on the edge of collapse before the war, but it still collapsed and lost almost all areas with non-German majorities, you could just well argue that all monarchies had ended their historical cycle and where at their last rope, except that UK clearly show this was not the case. I think this is an example of historical determinism, instead of explaning the collapse of empires with the logical and quite obvious reason, that million had died in conflict, the population starved and foreign states push for a break up by supporting seperatist and radicals.
 
Yes, as evidently both Hindenburg and Ludendorff were actually planning their next war against the Dual Monarchy.

Source on that? I know they hated the Austrians, especially Kaiser Karl, but by 1917 AH was pretty much their puppet. Would it be a war or a sanctioned breakup and occupation?

Also I was referring to a non-WW1 scenario, so H-L wouldn't be a factor. Nor would the intense hostility that cropped up during the war.

Asprey's book on Hindenburg and Ludendorff. Specifically he references this in the chapters detailing the end of the war in 1918. It was supposed to be a war leading to a sanctioned breakup and occupation.

Snake, is there any more information you can provide on this? Were these plans by Hindenburg and Ludendorff only developed after WWI began or were they part of a set of war plans from before 1914 that were adapted by the pair? Because without WWI Hindenburg would probably have still been in retirement and Ludendorff would probably still have been kept out of the General Staff (having been dismissed from it) with the command of the 39th Fusiliers.
 
France wanted a pierce of Belgium the half century of its history, and as for Belgian democracy, it wasn't like the Flemish had a lot of power there either until after WWI.

Still France has not make much active move to take it or undermine their goverment an Belgium as reformed himself


What power intervene? Serbia and Romania? I doubt Russia would intervene, as stupid as the support of Serbia was in real history, I think it's unlikely that they would support the Serbians if they're stupid enough to try to invade Austria-Hungary, Italy may be greedy and stupid enough, but if WWI show anything, it was that Austria really didn't need to worry about Italy invading them. Romania is really not a serious threat Transsylvania is nightmare to invade from the Romanian side and Bukovina was heavily fortified

Invasion? Think more on continuos political, diplomatic, logistical support to irredentist and in the end it will be more probably A-H who will try to invade that country (Serbia in OTL and Conrad proposed a couple of time a pre-empetive attack on Italy) for a short victorius war to prop up the govemerment and eliminate a problem and as WWI demonstrated it will not end well




Why, because you say so? In fact if we look at WWI we have several empires collapsing Russia, OE, AH and Germany, but no one say that Germany was on the edge of collapse before the war, but it still collapsed and lost almost all areas with non-German majorities, you could just well argue that all monarchies had ended their historical cycle and where at their last rope, except that UK clearly show this was not the case. I think this is an example of historical determinism, instead of explaning the collapse of empires with the logical and quite obvious reason, that million had died in conflict, the population starved and foreign states push for a break up by supporting seperatist and radicals.

No because A-H was basically an exsercise in political and ethnic equilibrium directly out of the pre-napoleonic age and lead by people who dream of the good old day of absolutism. Suppressing the Magyar will not magically resolve the problem so everybody sing kumbaya together, the other nationality will want similar right and more time pass more demanding for more democracy will go...and i doubt that the Hasburg will be very happy to support this.
Russia was an autocratic regime ruled by a people just out of feudalism, as the Russo-Japanese war and the revolution of 1905 demonstrated...it don't take really well pressure.
The OE were at the end of a really bad period and frankly have the biggest change of the three to reform, but as the A-h shark are on the water and it will not be painless
Monarch, as true wielder of political power where on a descendent curve, more time pass and more power it will go away and they become like the British royal now, sure Hasburg and Romanoff will not like it and will try to fight tooth and nail but it will not end well.
WWI basically accelerated things of a couple of decades and paved the road for a the nutjob to take control and be viable alternative but all the seed were there to the beginning.
 
The correct solution both for A-H and the German Empire would be:

1. A-H realizes the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria reform of the A-H Empire. ( The Hungarians rebel against the Empire, the non-hungarian subjects of Greater Austria counter-rebel against the rebels under the leadership of the Imperial armed forces, assisted by limited intervention from German Empire ).

2. German Empire and Greater Austria form a tight confederacy. Military ( joint command ), economical ( taxes, customs, monetary... ) Union. Just short of official Anschlus.

Thus both Hohenzolern and Habsburg are ok. The non-german nations within Greater Austria are happy too, cause irredentist nationalist dreams are realized "within".

The fact that there are Slovenian, Croatian-Bosnian, Serbian, Romanian, Ukrainian, Slovakian, Polish, Chech United Kingdoms and Dutchies means very strong appeal towards the neighbouring nations to get integrated. There is ready formula of how-to, and the prosperous compatriots in the Austrian empire are very attractive example. Also the ONLY way for ethnic irrendetism realized would be ONLY within Greater Austria. "All and only" polish/romanian/hungarian/ukrainian... people in each member-country is a goal which can be very easily achieved ONLY within GA.

Greater Austria turns into an analogue of pre-EU-like system for central and eastern Europe. If WW1 is avoided the GE-GA Confederation have all the chances to implement Prometeism-like policy for Russia and Ottomans.
 
Still France has not make much active move to take it or undermine their goverment an Belgium as reformed himself




Invasion? Think more on continuos political, diplomatic, logistical support to irredentist and in the end it will be more probably A-H who will try to invade that country (Serbia in OTL and Conrad proposed a couple of time a pre-empetive attack on Italy) for a short victorius war to prop up the govemerment and eliminate a problem and as WWI demonstrated it will not end well






No because A-H was basically an exsercise in political and ethnic equilibrium directly out of the pre-napoleonic age and lead by people who dream of the good old day of absolutism. Suppressing the Magyar will not magically resolve the problem so everybody sing kumbaya together, the other nationality will want similar right and more time pass more demanding for more democracy will go...and i doubt that the Hasburg will be very happy to support this.
Russia was an autocratic regime ruled by a people just out of feudalism, as the Russo-Japanese war and the revolution of 1905 demonstrated...it don't take really well pressure.
The OE were at the end of a really bad period and frankly have the biggest change of the three to reform, but as the A-h shark are on the water and it will not be painless
Monarch, as true wielder of political power where on a descendent curve, more time pass and more power it will go away and they become like the British royal now, sure Hasburg and Romanoff will not like it and will try to fight tooth and nail but it will not end well.
WWI basically accelerated things of a couple of decades and paved the road for a the nutjob to take control and be viable alternative but all the seed were there to the beginning.
Suppressing Hungary, however, is the first step to any such progress. No sitting government in Budapest will agree to having large portions of land removed from the kingdom.
 
Suppressing Hungary, however, is the first step to any such progress. No sitting government in Budapest will agree to having large portions of land removed from the kingdom.

Sure but is not a painless solution and if is not a quick thing the situation can degenerate, and as you said it's just a first step
 
Have Germany trade the eastern portion of East Galicia in exchange for the Polish Border Strip and perhaps some southern portion of Poland, which might then be unified with parts of Moravia, while Bohemia is slowly Germanized or evicted while their places are taken by Transyvlanian Swabians, Banatians, Volga Germans, and the like. Not realistic, but what can you do? They also need an Adriatic port.
 
Have Germany trade the eastern portion of East Galicia in exchange for the Polish Border Strip and perhaps some southern portion of Poland, which might then be unified with parts of Moravia, while Bohemia is slowly Germanized or evicted while their places are taken by Transyvlanian Swabians, Banatians, Volga Germans, and the like. Not realistic, but what can you do? They also need an Adriatic port.

The Adriatic port could be part of Slovenia or Venice? That is with a land route to Germany mind, which i am assuming has Austria with South Tirol. Although the people already there.
 
Sure but is not a painless solution and if is not a quick thing the situation can degenerate, and as you said it's just a first step

This is an important problem. AH has many difficult steps to take, most will need German support. And each time Germany will think about what it prefers: a reformed great power that will not indefinitely be the weak puppet or the addon of 20 millions (with Czechs and Slovenes) to the Reich and the Balkan left with more easily controllable Hungary as major power (and even Hungary could be partitioned). If the reforms of AH become to costly for Germany, they'll chose partition.
 
This is an important problem. AH has many difficult steps to take, most will need German support. And each time Germany will think about what it prefers: a reformed great power that will not indefinitely be the weak puppet or the addon of 20 millions (with Czechs and Slovenes) to the Reich and the Balkan left with more easily controllable Hungary as major power (and even Hungary could be partitioned). If the reforms of AH become to costly for Germany, they'll chose partition.
AH is ultimately Germany's only solid ally. If it becomes stronger, ultimately that is in German interest as well.
 
AH is ultimately Germany's only solid ally. If it becomes stronger, ultimately that is in German interest as well.

Remember that at the time, alliance were more shifting than today and even if A-H was Germany strong ally, well a too strong nation can mean that he can pose a problem later, second they probably don't have the will to prop up indefenitely the country, after a while they cut of their lose and opt for more little country who can be more easily controlled.
 
Remember that at the time, alliance were more shifting than today and even if A-H was Germany strong ally, well a too strong nation can mean that he can pose a problem later, second they probably don't have the will to prop up indefenitely the country, after a while they cut of their lose and opt for more little country who can be more easily controlled.
Alliances won't shift to the point where Russia, Britain or France might want to support them. And if Austria becomes stronger, it means they don't have to prop them up. Huge bonus. Germany needs them. Otherwise it will eventually be warred against, and lose.
 
Alliances won't shift to the point where Russia, Britain or France might want to support them. And if Austria becomes stronger, it means they don't have to prop them up. Huge bonus. Germany needs them. Otherwise it will eventually be warred against, and lose.

Britain only supported the fact that no single country can be the hegemon of Europe and Russia can be swayed expecially if A-H is seen as dead meat.
Germany will probably try for a while, but as the job will be long, hard, costly and probably not really rewarding they (except if A-h become a wholly owned subsidiary of the german empire) will cut their lose and (not very happyly) accept a partition so to dodge a global war.
If you want an alliance well after split up the A-h become cozy again with Italy (and support most of his claim in any eventual congress) and keep Hungary and Croatia as lesser patner as they face Russia and Serbia revendication.
With none of the alliance seemed to be too strong Britain can stay on his splendid isolation again
 

Deleted member 1487

AH is ultimately Germany's only solid ally. If it becomes stronger, ultimately that is in German interest as well.

But if it falls, Germany gets the juicy bits and can leverage the remainder into its economic sphere. It then also removes the major reason Germany and Russia weren't in the same alliance.
 
AH is ultimately Germany's only solid ally. If it becomes stronger, ultimately that is in German interest as well.

That is a logic not many countries follow in reality. Just for an example look at US policies, in particular against European unification. If a solid ally is so much better, why isn't US support for European unification stronger? While any country needs strong allies, they tend to prefer being the strongest partner.

After partitioning AH, Germany would have 90 to 100 million people and be by far the largest and strongest country in central Europe. Without partitioning, Germany and AH would sooner or later have a similar population base, and could field a similar economic size. They'd be on par, and the Germans know that. You don't find that many stable long-time relations between partners of similar strength in history.

To conclude, a stronger AH is in the interest of Germany - but only up to a point. As soon as AH challenges Germany's first place, Germany will listen very closely to the various separatist groups that will remain for a long time. And as soon as propping up AH becomes too costly (since German troops or money or political capital are needed more and more to do so), Germany will reconsider its position.

It then also removes the major reason Germany and Russia weren't in the same alliance.

Another important point. As before the war, any enemy of AH gets immediate friends: Romania, Serbia, Montenegro, Italy, Poland, and most probably what's left of Hungary. I'm not sure about Russia though, since after the war the Russians will be more interested in the German puppets than in the Balkans. After AH partition, the Balkans will be the German backyard, its various states still weary of each other but listening to the "neutral" judge in Berlin. And Italy will be an ally (comparable in size and strength to AH and much more stable).
 
The Adriatic port could be part of Slovenia or Venice? That is with a land route to Germany mind, which i am assuming has Austria with South Tirol. Although the people already there.
The Austrian Littoral was the area with the coastline. I was thinking of Rijeka/Fiume, which was populated heavilly by Italians but jointly administered(sort of) by the Croats and Hungarians. Moving in Germans to form a corridor to the seven hundred year German settled Gottschee County might... Something. Anyways, how do you guys think it would go over to have many independent German states in the Balkans for the people who had settled there centuries before?
 
The Austrian Littoral was the area with the coastline. I was thinking of Rijeka/Fiume, which was populated heavilly by Italians but jointly administered(sort of) by the Croats and Hungarians. Moving in Germans to form a corridor to the seven hundred year German settled Gottschee County might... Something.

IF Germany is going to split up AH, they would try to do it in such a way that Italy comes out as an ally. That means that Italy gets most or all of Küstenland, Trentino (or even all of Southern Tyrol), probably all of Dalmatia. So Germany can only get a port on the Med in Fiume or South on the Croatian coastline which IOTL belonged to Hungary (probably with Italy getting the islands before it to make it a commercial harbour only).

Anyways, how do you guys think it would go over to have many independent German states in the Balkans for the people who had settled there centuries before?

I doubt if this would be possible. The Germans there have no continuous settlement area, their settlements are predominantly rural, you'd have a lot of micro-states with a still ethnically mixed population. In any case, most of those micro-states would evolve on Hungarian territory. IF the Germans are about to partition AH, they'd side with Hungarian nationalists during that and these would want to keep as much from Hungary as possible.

It largely depends on the Hungarians and the AH war gains, but IF AH is partitioned, I see two options as the most likely: keeping Hungary as it was under Hapsburg rule (meaning that a smaller state now needs German support) or partitioning Hungary with the OTL frontiers of 1944 (or when that was), which should . Galicia would go to Poland (I assume that Poland was formed as a puppet after WWI).
 
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