Deleted member 1487
Assuming WW1 doesn't start in 1914 and Franz Ferdinand isn't assassinated, eventually AH is going to run into ethnic troubles.
1916-7 is going to be a bad period for AH, because Franz Josef dies and Franz Ferdinand is going to take the throne. He planned on fighting the Hungarian nobility for control over Hungary either politically or with the military.
So that gets to my question:
Would Germany ever sanction the break up of Austria-Hungary? They were Germany's only ally by 1914 and would likely remain so for decades. Still, it was a juicy target, as Germany could get Austria (including all of the German-speaking areas denied to it IOTL in 1919 like South Tyrol, Sopron, Pressburg, and better borders with Slovenia), Bohemia, and Moravia. Russia could get Galica, Romania Bukowina and Transsylvania, Serbia can get Bosnia-Herzogovina, Slovenia and Croatia can form their own country, while Italy gets nothing, because really, no one respected them, nor cozied to their idea of Empire. Hungary loses a lot, but keeps Slovakia minus Pressburg.
This also means Russia can become friendlier with Germany...if they were willing to write off the Czechs. It makes Romania much friendlier once it has Transsylvania, it somewhat neutralizes Serbia's demands, while also getting Croatia-Slovenia and Hungary as economic client states.
Italy probably becomes hostile, but is virtually no threat to Germany thanks to the Alps, even in South Tyrol.
The Habsburg reduced realm can join Germany as a 5th kingdom, leaving them to govern themselves locally, but integrating them economically. Still this introduces lots of Catholics and increasingly socialists into the German Empire, which the Prussia nobility did not like, but the increasingly powerful Pan-German (Alldeutsch) groups in the middle class had no problem with that, but rather wanted a 'greater Germany'.
So at what point, if ever, would Germany take a hand in breaking up Austria-Hungary?
1916-7 is going to be a bad period for AH, because Franz Josef dies and Franz Ferdinand is going to take the throne. He planned on fighting the Hungarian nobility for control over Hungary either politically or with the military.
So that gets to my question:
Would Germany ever sanction the break up of Austria-Hungary? They were Germany's only ally by 1914 and would likely remain so for decades. Still, it was a juicy target, as Germany could get Austria (including all of the German-speaking areas denied to it IOTL in 1919 like South Tyrol, Sopron, Pressburg, and better borders with Slovenia), Bohemia, and Moravia. Russia could get Galica, Romania Bukowina and Transsylvania, Serbia can get Bosnia-Herzogovina, Slovenia and Croatia can form their own country, while Italy gets nothing, because really, no one respected them, nor cozied to their idea of Empire. Hungary loses a lot, but keeps Slovakia minus Pressburg.
This also means Russia can become friendlier with Germany...if they were willing to write off the Czechs. It makes Romania much friendlier once it has Transsylvania, it somewhat neutralizes Serbia's demands, while also getting Croatia-Slovenia and Hungary as economic client states.
Italy probably becomes hostile, but is virtually no threat to Germany thanks to the Alps, even in South Tyrol.
The Habsburg reduced realm can join Germany as a 5th kingdom, leaving them to govern themselves locally, but integrating them economically. Still this introduces lots of Catholics and increasingly socialists into the German Empire, which the Prussia nobility did not like, but the increasingly powerful Pan-German (Alldeutsch) groups in the middle class had no problem with that, but rather wanted a 'greater Germany'.
So at what point, if ever, would Germany take a hand in breaking up Austria-Hungary?