Would France have surrendered if Germany took Paris in September 1914

[KaiserWilhelm]

Let’s say Germany smashes through the Franco-British forces at the Marne and takes Paris by September 25th or so. Would France have surrendered at this point, or would it have vowed to fight on? I assume that the calls for evacuation of the BEF would be successful ITTL, which may force France’s hand. OTOH I could see successful diplomacy wrangling another month out of the BEF to launch counterattacks on German positions in conjunction with French forces trying to push the Germans out of Paris. The question is, do those efforts succeed against the overstretched German troops, or can they hold the line long enough and solidify their gains, forcing France to surrender by mid-November or so either way?

What I would think is really interesting would be if Germany took Paris, the BEF flees, but the French don’t try to surrender. In this case I could definitely see the Germans capturing the BEF en masse as almost happened at Dunkirk in 1940.

Nonetheless, what would a separate peace with the Franco-Brits in Fall 1914 look like, or would the Brits try to fight on? I’m assuming that a peace deal, even one concluded with France alone, probably allows victory on the Eastern Front after a spring offensive at the latest, but I could be wrong.

 

[Darknick]

If the Germans had the ability to get there that fast, then they should have no problem capturing the BEF as well. If France has lost up to Paris AGAIN within 40 years of the last time, it would cause even worse political instability. A majority of their primary resources and industry has now been seized, and they suffered an extreme embarrassment, I highly doubt they would fight on. If they do, they wouldn't be able to fight on for long, there simply wouldn't be the political will.

If France collapses fast, I also don't see Russia holding on long either, especially if they have to fight Germany with her full attention on them, but I am not sure.

 

[Mikey]

As with a lot of these kinds of things - the details matter. There's a few different ways to change the Battle of the Marne into a German victory, so I think this is different if it's a result of distinct failures in the field, versus more remote strategic screw-ups, like someone losing their nerve and retreating early. Included in that is whether or not Poincaré and other top government officials are captured, or just flee.

There may be a distinction between a full French surrender, and France (and Britain) suing for peace after an embarrassing defeat, the latter resulting in relatively minor concessions compared to the former. There's probably also a lot more room for Germany to be generous in victory, given the enormous prestige of simply winning so quickly, combined with the fact that they've got a full second war to fight on the other side.

Russia isn't going to be particularly eager to stay in the war after the Western Front collapses, though: French support was what got their backs up in the first place during the crisis, so losing that almost immediately will do some real damage. You may see a fairly prompt armistice in search of a global settlement, with Germany dictating terms.

Interestingly, the Ottoman Empire hadn't actually joined the war yet; it would attack Russia at the end of October — there may be some benefit to Austria and Germany if they can wrap this thing up before the Turks start looking for a piece of the action, given how strong their position currently is. Italy and Bulgaria wouldn't join until 1915, either.

 

[King Augeas]

I suspect that they might want to fight on, but find themselves unable to effectively do so. Leading to an "Erm, yeah" moment a few weeks later.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

Hard to see them winning an on-going war in that scenario, yeah. 1870 on steroids.

 

[KaiserWilhelm]

As with a lot of these kinds of things - the details matter. There's a few different ways to change the Battle of the Marne into a German victory, so I think this is different if it's a result of distinct failures in the field, versus more remote strategic screw-ups, like someone losing their nerve and retreating early. Included in that is whether or not Poincaré and other top government officials are captured, or just flee.

There may be a distinction between a full French surrender, and France (and Britain) suing for peace after an embarrassing defeat, the latter resulting in relatively minor concessions compared to the former. There's probably also a lot more room for Germany to be generous in victory, given the enormous prestige of simply winning so quickly, combined with the fact that they've got a full second war to fight on the other side.

Russia isn't going to be particularly eager to stay in the war after the Western Front collapses, though: French support was what got their backs up in the first place during the crisis, so losing that almost immediately will do some real damage. You may see a fairly prompt armistice in search of a global settlement, with Germany dictating terms.

Interestingly, the Ottoman Empire hadn't actually joined the war yet; it would attack Russia at the end of October — there may be some benefit to Austria and Germany if they can wrap this thing up before the Turks start looking for a piece of the action, given how strong their position currently is. Italy and Bulgaria wouldn't join until 1915, either.

Let’s say it’s just something like there’s a strategic oversight where there’s a gap in the Entente lines which the Germans exploit and overwhelm their forces from behind. I think that’s the most reasonable way to have this happen. Do you think, in this event, that the Germans would likely be able to capture the French government mostly intact?

 

[Nivek]

Yes without Paris is game over for france, to centralize now work against them as all radial railroads leat from and to paris. So yeah is the Second Franco-prussian war now

 

[GrahamB]

Do you think, in this event, that the Germans would likely be able to capture the French government mostly intact?

Debatable. Assuming a surprise breakthrough and making all speed to Paris, I still doubt the German army could surround the city fast enough to forestall an evacuation of most of the government should they choose to leave (they might choose to stay for morale purposes). The blow to morale of suffering another defeat against Germany might be enough to break French resolve to keep fighting though. There will of course be die-hards who will insist there simply hasn't been enough time to even consider surrender yet (something along the lines of "Surrender? But we've only just started fighting!", no doubt), but it'll be the civilian government that decides to call a cease-fire (unless I'm forgetting something important about French politics at the time), especially if Germany chooses to be magnanimous in victory and merely asks for France to recognize Alsace-Lorraine as German territory and maybe a small indemnity. If I recall Dan Carlin's excellent series on the war correctly, the mood in Paris itself was fragile enough for a mass panic to break out if German troops actually reached the city. Given the instability of French politics at the time, I'm certain a French embarrassment would have repercussions that'll last decades. Revanche Plus Fort!
Britain might be mollified if Germany promises to recompense Belgium, which if I remember right they were planning on doing in the first place. I suppose it wouldn't hurt if Belgium was also fine with this settlement. Of course, this all assumes everything works out perfectly along expectations, which we all know is highly improbable.

Still, it's possible for the early German win, but I suspect things will get very... messy with a Paris siege at the end of a long supply chain with angry Allied armies on both sides.

 

[ivanotter]

Interesting.

In reality, it was probably more a matter of the road, rail and canal connections in and out of Paris that would be important, rather Paris in itself. North of Paris is where we find the industry and mines.

Paris falling is the crowning achievement. Like 1870.

So, if France is out in 1914, what will England do?
- Operation Overlord in 2016?
- Will there be a British Churchill to defy Germany?
- Britain also asking for terms seems to be the more logical solution.

What were the war goals of Germany in 1914. Probably not to be overly harsh on France after all. The whole thing was about AH, Russia and Balkans

 

[Nivek]

What were the war goals of Germany in 1914

Septemberprogramm

 

[lotrian]

There are arguments that are in favor of French capitulation in case of a loss of Paris as early as September 1914 :
- Modern history showed most of the time, and especially for France, that losing your capital meant game over.
- France is a very centralized country, already in 1914, and losing Paris would equal a decapitation. In terms of political, economic, demographic and military importance, losing Paris puts France in a dire situation.

However, I think it is more likely they would have continued the war :
- While the importance of Paris is huge already, it's lesser than it would become later. France remains a very rural country, most of the population still lives in the countryside.
-The most prominent politicians are not Parisians. Their families and jurisdictions are mostly safe.
-The mindset of the time is more aggressive than in 1870 or 1940 : France is not content with the starting situation and has the goal of recovering its lost territory of Alsace-Moselle, while for the 2 other wars they were just happy sitting on the defensive. The whole military staff is offensive-minded ("doctrine of excessive offensive"), they would not sign a capitulation after losing Paris, convinced that the next offensive will be decisively victorious. They would also have no trouble convincing the politicians of this, which makes an armistice equally unlikely. That's also because of the underestimation of the adversary's abilities by both politicians and military, and an incredible arrogance.
- The Reich wasn't looking for a magnanimous peace. It was looking for a total hegemony over Europe, which could only be achieved by the destruction of French capacity of revenge. The Septemberprogramm shows that as early as September 1914, Germany's goal for Western Europe would necessitate a total victory in order to be accepted :
-Limited but strategical annexations (Luxembourg, coal and iron basins of Briey, and Liege in Belgium)
- Puppetize Belgium (especially take total control of Antwerpen's port)
- Colonial MittelAfrika (1/3 of Africa, comprising Congos, Angola, the whole Gulf of Guinea)
- Demilitarized France, economically submitted to Germany
- Harsh economic reparations for France spread over a long period to avoid any possibility of remilitarization.

For the East, we saw OTL what was the program with the short-lived Brest-Litovsk.


To sum up, while it could have been possible under certain conditions, the situation makes me think it would have been very unlikely to see France surrender if losing Paris in September 1914.

 

[Mikestone8]

However, I think it is more likely they would have continued the war

Continued it with what?

With the northeast already overrun, loaig Paris means losing most of their remaining industry.

 

[33k7]

in this scenario the French lose territory most likely Colonial territory

dark gray Germany will most likely take light gray possible but I highly doubt everything

Belgium probably keeps its Colonial territory simply due to the fact that Germans would like to f*** over France more

while Russia and Britain probably lose nothing but pride and money


Serbia on the other hand ceases to exist as a nation the war will be over within a matter of months after this

aftermath of the war the French people have suffered two defeats by the hands of the Germans probably goes through the same type of political turmoil Germany goes through more than likely though ends up with a Mussolini in charge by the end of the 1920s or early 1930s.

 

[lotrian]

Continued it with what?

With the northeast already overrun, loaig Paris means losing most of their remaining industry.

With their army, and their allies.

A significant part of the industry was located in occupied regions OTL. Also Paris was not the center of military industry. Losing Paris would not mean the end of French industrial capacity.
The money was not yet a problem and they could temporarily rely on UK (maybe USA?) to produce equipment.

Also losing Paris for how long ? For sure the first goal of the Army would be to retake it. Here I answered the question is if Paris is taken in September 1914. The conditions would likely be different if Paris is occupied for years.

 

[Bougnas]

With their army, and their allies.

Also losing Paris for how long ? For sure the first goal of the Army would be to retake it. Here I answered the question is if Paris is taken in September 1914. The conditions would likely be different if Paris is occupied for years.

Agree as well, even in 1870 it was possible for the French to break the siege of Paris. It didn't happen because the French armies were too uncoordinated but it was possible. Here in 1914 the Germans would be in a difficult situation if they rushed into Paris without fully securing the flanks and are at risk of suffering heavy casualties if the Entente strikes their rear. Not guaranteed but again strange things can happen in AH.

 

[Mikestone8]

Agree as well, even in 1870 it was possible for the French to break the siege of Paris. It didn't happen because the French armies were too uncoordinated but it was possible. Here in 1914 the Germans would be in a difficult situation if they rushed into Paris without fully securing the flanks and are at risk of suffering heavy casualties if the Entente strikes their rear. Not guaranteed but again strange things can happen in AH.

If the French armies are undefeated I don't see how Paris is supposed to have been taken in the first place. Fighting for it street by street would tie up so many German troops that they wouldn't be able to defeat the French field Armies. It would be "Stalingrad come early" And if thr French armies form a continuous line from Verdum to Paris it's hard to see how the Germans *could* outflank them.

As far as I can see, the OP requirement for Paris' fall effectively *presupposes* the defeat of the French armies.

 

[Alanith]

Interesting.

In reality, it was probably more a matter of the road, rail and canal connections in and out of Paris that would be important, rather Paris in itself. North of Paris is where we find the industry and mines.

Paris falling is the crowning achievement. Like 1870.

So, if France is out in 1914, what will England do?
- Operation Overlord in 2016?
- Will there be a British Churchill to defy Germany?
- Britain also asking for terms seems to be the more logical solution.

Waiting one hundred and two years to invade seems very patient of England

In all seriousness, I think they might fight on for a few more weeks or months but past a certain point people are going to be asking pointed questions about why His Majesty's Government is continuing the struggle when the Tsar is teetering and France has already lost it's capital. Best to at least see what terms Germany is willing to accept, you lose nothing by asking, and if they're too severe, you can fight on. However if they're acceptable, you make peace, and reset for Round Two later on.

There's also some major logistical considerations here. How long can the French army stay in artillery shells without most of its industrial base for example? Morale will be shot in the army if they've lost the capital in such short order. There's certainly no way Italy is going to tag team in at this point, irregardless of what the allies offer them, and they might well decide "Oh hell, the war's going to be over soon, we'd best jump in on the side of the Central powers so we can push our claims on France!"

 

[Aghasverov]

Septemberprogramm

Napkinprogramm

 

[Nivek]

Napkinprogramm

Is the only surviving idea we've, Better than nothing.

 

[Aghasverov]

Is the only surviving idea we've, Better than nothing.

Here, for the 1st time ever published, from recently-declassified top-secret documents obtained from the Archives in Berlin, are the original edition of the German War Aims in the Great War:
1) Beat France.
2) Beat Russia.
3) ?