Would France automatically attack Germany in any war with another power?

Germany gets in a war w/ another power after 1871, does France automatically attack?

  • yes

    Votes: 37 47.4%
  • no

    Votes: 41 52.6%

  • Total voters
    78

raharris1973

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In all of the years from 1872 to 1913 ?

Strictly speaking, Germany did have wars against non-European natives during that time, and was involved in some gunboat diplomacy and European coalition interventions like the Boxer rebellion. But Germany really was not in any wars on the scale of Entente powers in those years.

So, although Franco-German relations fluctuated, and both often had other fish to fry, would it be fair to say that if Germany had ended up in a duel with Russia, Austria-Hungary, China, Japan, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Britain, Denmark or the United States that France would automatically have aligned with Germany's enemy and attacked Alsace-Lorraine in pretty much all cases? Would this have been true pretty much in all decades, the 70s, 80s, 90s and then the Ots and the teens?

For that matter, would Russia have automatically fought against Austria-Hungary in the event A-H became involved in a war with Italy, any of the Balkan states or the Ottomans?
 

Delvestius

Banned
The only power France could defeat Germany with is probably the U.K, and that would most likely turn into Franco-Prussian war part two, with the British making a cease fire.

EDIT: Also - I can't Imagine the Russians working with the Turks. They'd buddy up with AH before allying with the Ottomans.
 

raharris1973

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So if Germany ends up in a colonial war with America or Japan, France probably stays out, but if Germany ends up in a colonial war with Britain, France attacks Germany automatically?
 
So if Germany ends up in a colonial war with America or Japan, France probably stays out, but if Germany ends up in a colonial war with Britain, France attacks Germany automatically?

They would first negotiate with Britain and reach an accord then they and maybe Russia would invade Germany
 
IMO, only way France attack Germany is if AH or Russia attacks Germany. They best chance is Germany occupied in 2 fronts.
Now post 1910 only Russian attack will lead to France attack Germany.
 

raharris1973

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If Britain or America had a colonial or naval war with Germany at any time from the 1880s to 1913, would Germany have automatically invaded France as part of it's response?

If Britain had a colonial war with *France* at any time from the 1870s to 1913, would Germany have automatically invaded France

Fundamentally, was French desire for revanche and restoration of Alsace-Lorraine, and Germany suspicion of French revanche, always so consistently high that neither party, Paris or Berlin, could find itself in a fight with the third great power without also fighting each other?

Or, were there some years or decades when other priorities in the colonial sphere could have led to conflict offshore with the Franco-German remaining a neutral border, because each of them has more immediate fish to fry?
 
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Ryan

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If Britain or America had a colonial or naval war with Germany at any time from the 1880s to 1913, would Germany have automatically invaded France as part of it's response?
I can't imagine why Germany would create another enemy (several enemies in fact given that it's randomly attacking neutral France for no reason) when it's at war with one of the two most powerful countries in the world.
If Britain had a colonial war with *France* at any time from the 1870s to 1913, would Germany have automatically invaded France?
Possibly, but Britain probably wouldn't want Germany taking advantage of France's weakened position (balance of power etc.) and may very quickly peace out with France to let them focus on Germany (and possibly provide help)
 
If Britain or America had a colonial or naval war with Germany at any time from the 1880s to 1913, would Germany have automatically invaded France as part of it's response?

If Britain had a colonial war with *France* at any time from the 1870s to 1913, would Germany have automatically invaded France

I don't see why Germany would bother. It got what it wanted in 1871 with Alsace-Lorraine. There were no other German-speaking areas of France beyond that.

I could potentially see France attack Germany in a "Germany at war with someone else" scenario but I don't think it would be automatic. France would have to be pretty confident of victory to do it.
 
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raharris1973

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I could potentially see France attack Germany in a "Germany at war with someone else" scenario but I don't think it would be automatic. France would have to be pretty confident of victory to do it.

That tends to be my view- I would periodize likelihood based on different eras of French diplomatic priorities -

1870s - high likelihood of France getting involved if Germany is embroiled with Britain, Austria or Russia in a war. German overseas war with US, Japan, China is basically irrelevant to French calculation. Russo-German war very unlikely in this period.

Likewise Germany not inclined to attack France in event of overseas war, or eastern war.

1877-1879 - if Germany ends up in a war against Russia, in League with Austria, the Ottomans and Britain, France's decision is on the knife's edge. Having a Russian de facto ally is an opportunity most do not want to pass up, but if it's very risky if Britain is on the same side as Germany - thoughts?

Likewise Germany not inclined to attack France in event of overseas war, or eastern war.

1880-1884- France is more colonially focused and anti-British. France is likely to stay out of any German war with Britain, America, Spain, Portugal, China or Japan or anyplace in Latin America. Likely to stay out of any German-Austrian war, despite how disturbing that would be. Would probably favor joining Russia's side if Germany attacked her though, especially if Britain is uncommitted.

Likewise Germany not inclined to attack France in event of overseas war, or eastern war.

1885-1889 - France is likely to jump on Germany in case of Russo-German war, even if Britain is pro-Triple Alliance. In event of German fight with Britain, America, Japan, China, Spain, Portugal or Latin America overseas, France (and Russia) are likely to sit it out, and make unilateral gains in the non-European world.

Likewise Germany not inclined to attack France in event of overseas war, or eastern war.

1890-1903 - France will jump on Germany in case of Russo-German war, even if Britain is pro-Triple Alliance. In event of German fight with Britain, America, Japan, China, Spain, Portugal or Latin America overseas, France (and Russia) likely to sit it out, and make unilateral gains in the non-European world. But unlike previous period, Russo-German war is very unlikely in this period.

Germany not inclined to attack France in event of overseas war with a maritime power. But Germans will have to assume, and therefore possibly preempt, French action if a war with Russia occurs.

1904-1905 France will attack Germany if Germany attacks Russia or Britain. German fighting with America, China, Japan or Latin America will not bring France in against Germany, unless it first brings in Britain or Russia against Germany.

Germany will fight France also if it ends up in a fight with Russia or Britain. In the latter case, post Entente Cordiale, Germany would treat conquests in western Europe as either hostages or compensation for inevitable losses overseas. If Germany fights Japan, China, America or Latin America, it will not have to assume Russo-French hostility, unless any of the former measures bring down British participation.

1906-1913

If Germany ends up in a fight with Britain, Japan or America overseas, or against Russia, France will want and prepare for a continental war on Germany hoping for all these other countries as allies.

Germany will fight France also if it ends up in a fight with Russia or Britain. In the latter case, post Entente Cordiale, Germany would treat conquests in western Europe as either hostages or compensation for inevitable losses overseas. If Germany fights Japan, China, America or Latin America, it will not have to assume Russo-French hostility, unless any of the former measures bring down British participation.


------This estimate is based overwhelmingly on multipolar diplomatic relations at this time and respective imperial agendas. I know less about the year to year Franco-German military and naval balance through all these years.
 
I don't think France would attack 'automatically' - after all, assuming that Germany goes to war with a power like Russia or the UK (or both), it's reasonable for France to assume that Germany would be 'bled out' by such a war, with or without French help. Much more rational to sit it out on the sidelines, and then enter at a pivotal moment and get back Alsace-Lorraine for minimal cost.

Indeed, France probably would gain the most by maintaining an unfriendly neutrality against Germany throughout the duration of the war, which forces Germany to dilute some of her power to guard against potential French attack.
 

raharris1973

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SvoHljott I wonder if relations would have eventually calmed even if Alsace-Lorraine remained in German hands.

What kind of timeframe do you think this would take?

Revanchism over Alsace-Lorraine was placed in partial eclipse from time to time by other events which increased anger at Britain. Examples include the British occupation of Egypt 1882, the Siamese Crisis 1887, the Fashoda Incident 1898 and the second Anglo-Boer War 1900-1902. But revanchism against Germany kept bubbling back up in the late 1880s, and in the ten years before WWI.
 
The word "automatic" is very problematic here. It's clear enough that as original poster, you don't think the decision would ever be "automatic" and neither does anyone else. It would never be mindless; it would always be made on the basis of the detailed situation and an estimate of likely outcomes based on those details. France wants Alsace-Lorraine back very much, that is given--but also not to be beaten to a pulp again. They are looking for a situation where large and growing power of Germany is sufficiently immobilized and drained for them to prevail, and it just depends on too many things for any decision to ever be "automatic!"
 

raharris1973

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Shevek23- I invite you to address the question and the poll as if the word were "likely" or "probable" rather than automatic.:)
 
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LordKalvert

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France is capable of siding WITH Germany in a war with Great Britain, she's also capable of attacking Germany or staying neutral in that scenario. Likely Russia's policy would carry great weight in France's decision even before the alliance

France and Germany cooperated a lot in Africa (the Congo-British treaty for example) and Asia (triple intervention). In extra European affairs the two often found their interests in agreement.

As for the Russians and the Ottomans- they cooperate a lot and have no scruples at all. The Russians want the straits, the Turks accept this, but there are times (the Armenian crises for example) when the Turks are looking for Russian help and protection.

The fortresses the Sultan built are designed more to protect his European front then the Black Sea. He might be quite capable of trading Constantinople for Egypt for example. He definitely liked the idea of Russian help over Britain's plan to depose him
 

Ryan

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IIRC Bismarck focused for a decade or so on being friendly with France

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Grey Wolf

I thought he tried to diplomatically isolate France.

besides, Alsace Lorraine makes friendliness between them pretty much impossible.
 
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