Indeed, the alt universe or Double WI is a useful tool for analyzing a situation. It generally shows perception of a situation with incomplete or bad information is important to the outcome, or perceived outcome.
I used to umpire and play double blind or limited intel wargames. The style, caution, decision making process or whatever you want to call the actions of the players on the game board changes when they dont have a near perfect view of the opposing pieces. Some people seem to have a instinct for sucessfull decisions in this reduced information enviroment. Others I saw became paralyzed or indecisive, or over focused on the wrong part of the battle. My favorite example from these game was where both players conceded on the next to last turn, each convinced there was no likely way they could win. In fact the game had come down to the wire and either had a fair chance of winning with the last round of attacks. But, both had convinced themselves the opposition was stronger than reality.
For those who have studied the Maylasian/Singapore campaign a bit the ASB factor seems to lie in the entire series of events/decisions for the Brits that led to its capture. The idea that so many poor decisions could be made, even before the campaign started seems difficult to credit, but reality is stranger than fiction. It is even more difficult to accept the course of events within British leadership when you understand the views that led to these decisions were not universal and changing a few leaders, or the circumstances of the moment alters the course of events significantly.
I think if the entire course of events for both sides of Singapores fall were written out with the names, dates, ect... masked most folks would declare it poor fiction. They would have real difficulty accepting one side would so consistently have the choices and events go against them. 'The world does not work that way' might be the usual reaction.
