Would DPRK invade ROK if Chinese Civil War hasn't ended yet?

I don't know much about post-1900 Asian history but.... would North Korea be confident enough invade South Korea if the Chinese Civil War was still going on in that year?
 
Maybe, since North Korea considered Russia as a much more valuable ally than China at that time. Kim Il-Sung was pretty much put into power by the Russians, and much or North Korea's army was trained by the Russians and used Russian equipment.

So, it will depend more on how the Russians assessed the situation. Kim Il-Sung was reportedly said to have sought Stalin's approval before starting the invasion of the South. If Russia thought that the Nationalists would have a chance at winning the Civil War, then they would probably not take the risk and would have told Kim to stay put, and vise versa if they thought the Communists would win. However, since Kim-Il Sung's main goal was to unite the two Koreas, so he might just go ahead on the invasion without Russian approval.
 

nbcman

Donor
There were elements of the future NK army fighting in China during the Civil War which would not have been available. I would doubt that NK would have tried to invade assuming all of their trade routes to the Soviet Union would have been by sea and easily interdictable by the USA.

There may not have been a UN force available. The USSR was boycotting the UN over the awarding the UN security council seat to the PRC when NK invaded. Their absence in the UN security council allowed the successful passing of the resolution committing UN troops to the Korean War. However, Pres Truman had already committed the US' intervention prior to the UN resolution.

Lastly, without the massive intervention of PRC troops, NK would have been completely defeated unless the USSR intervened.
 
It was mostly Russia that pushed N. Korea into war. They also supplied N. Korea with most of the weapons, at least at first.
It wasn't until the UN forces came close to China's border that China became a true military ally.
So its likely N. Korea would attack. They might have used a division or two to secure their trade route to Russia, but they'd have done it.
 
The more intersting part is, would the chinese have intervened anyway?
Depends on what the exact status of the Chinese Civil War is at the time, but generally an ongoing civil war makes any foreign military commitments hazardous at best. The Chinese Communists might not be able to spare any troops to send to North Korea's aid, and even if they can spare troops it probably wouldn't be as many as they crossed the Yalu in OTL.
 
They may join the fight, but they could do it defensively.
Cross the Yalu, move up to the front lines secretly as they did in OTL, and then make a big show of it. Do a few counter attacks, and hold the line. Make it seem like a million soldiers are just waiting to attack, but the peace loving Peoples Republic of China doesn't want a war. Then they could make demands for peace.
If they could get the N. Koreans onside, it would leave the North with a very small country while S. Korea is greatly increased.
China would have its buffer, and N. Korea would basically be a Chinese province. It would also be good pr for the Communist controlled China, and would help any future negotiations with the West. Basically the West would probably think, yes the Communist Chinese are Communist, but they're smart peace loving Communists we can make a deal with.
After that all that the Communists would have to do is win their civil war, avoid the cultural revolution and they would be on easy street.
 
It was mostly Russia that pushed N. Korea into war. They also supplied N. Korea with most of the weapons, at least at first.
It wasn't until the UN forces came close to China's border that China became a true military ally.
So its likely N. Korea would attack. They might have used a division or two to secure their trade route to Russia, but they'd have done it.

Thats not the way I have read it. Although Russia did supply NK's military with equipment, Russia advised NK to wait.
 
Thats not the way I have read it. Although Russia did supply NK's military with equipment, Russia advised NK to wait.
Darn it. Just checked my book over again, you're right. The North Koreans did go to war mostly by themselves.
So for China to go and make them sign a bad peace treaty the North Koreans would definitely need a change in leaders. Possibly a Chinese assassination.
 
Darn it. Just checked my book over again, you're right. The North Koreans did go to war mostly by themselves.
So for China to go and make them sign a bad peace treaty the North Koreans would definitely need a change in leaders. Possibly a Chinese assassination.

Which book did you read? I read The Aquariums of Pyongyang, phenominal book describing the conditions of the North Korean gulags.
 

Xen

Banned
Could we perhaps see American boots on the ground in China in such a scenario?

Perhaps the Chinese Civil War ends in a North China-South China scenario?
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Could we perhaps see American boots on the ground in China in such a scenario?

Perhaps the Chinese Civil War ends in a North China-South China scenario?

Something like:- Red Chinese "volunteer troups" like in OTL, but with smaler progress
-bigger UN pushback over the border

This would end in having a pro-western Korea, a pro-western North China, maybe even only Machuria, and a Communist South-China.

But there would still be National Chinese Forces somewhere, so either there is a second pro-western China, both of them unite or you'd have a Taiwan secenerio like in OTL, but that is very unlikely.

North China-Communist
South China pro-western is way more usual in AH, so this could be interesting.
Tibet is likely to stay independent, Hong Kong won't have that big industrial boom, probably Singapure neither, (but I am not that sure).
 
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