Thanks the RN, Britain and its colonies were effectively untouchable even if France/Russia/Italy have already collapsed. Would Britain, therefore, not lose anything except possibly pawning back the occupied German colonies (not counting the lost money and men), or would Germany be able to take something else?
Would Britain get off scot-free in a CP victory peace deal?
- Thread starter Snowstalker
- Start date
I think it's the same answer as in the "What if Germany wins WWII?" scenarios. Britain may decide to retire from the field. Britain may have to retire from the field. But Britain does not have to retire from the war. Pull back, rebuild, refit, re-equip...and then re-enter the fighting. So, what ever Britain loses in a CP (or Nazi or Napoleonic) victory is what ever Britain decides is worth giving up for equal or greater gains (even if that gain be time).
Now, there might be a treaty to end a war but, faced with a sufficient threat or opportunity, any country will be more than willing to start or join in another one. Faced with a CP dominated (or conquered) Europe, the UK will makes plans to return, either alone or with allies-and there will be allies.
Now, there might be a treaty to end a war but, faced with a sufficient threat or opportunity, any country will be more than willing to start or join in another one. Faced with a CP dominated (or conquered) Europe, the UK will makes plans to return, either alone or with allies-and there will be allies.
Like who? Not Russia, since they won't survive their internal issues. Not America, which doesn't care enough. The Commonwealth isn't big enough to turn the tables, and they have political issues as well. Plus, a landing in France or Belgium is still unbelievably risky. Any counterattack would be orders of magnitude harder than D-Day, even before you account for the fact that most of the German army wouldn't be fighting on another front.
Well after a loss of Russia, France, and Italy, there still remains an active front to deal with in the Middle East.
With the Ottoman Empire falling apart at the seams and all and the Arabs revolting, the Central Powers would either have to transfer troops to stabilize the Middle Eastern front, or sign a peace treaty as soon as possible.
So Germany could in theory threaten British Africa with an invasion of Egypt. But I say in theory only, because the logistics of moving troops and supplies from Germany, to the Balkans through the incredibly backwards Ottoman Empire all the way down to the Sinai would likely take until the next decade at best with the fact all the infrastructure would have to be constructed from scratch. To say nothing of pushing the British and Arabs out of the Middle East to that point in the first place.
And by the same logic, the British could in theory reverse that to keep the war going by focusing exclusively on fucking the Ottoman Empire up, either forcing a seperate peace or forcing Germany to agree to a general peace (with the threat of losing the Ottomans as an ally) or to commit forces to keep the Ottomans floating. With Germany and A-H having to keep reserve forces on hand to garrison France, Russia, and Italy, it'll be a bit difficult finding enough giveadamn to spare for the Ottomans.
So overall, it's a bloody mess and a pain in the ass for both sides. But the British got quite a lot of leverage in any negotiation. Only balanced out by how big their own stocks of giveadamn are.
And money of course. America needs it's loans payed back sooner or later.
With the Ottoman Empire falling apart at the seams and all and the Arabs revolting, the Central Powers would either have to transfer troops to stabilize the Middle Eastern front, or sign a peace treaty as soon as possible.
So Germany could in theory threaten British Africa with an invasion of Egypt. But I say in theory only, because the logistics of moving troops and supplies from Germany, to the Balkans through the incredibly backwards Ottoman Empire all the way down to the Sinai would likely take until the next decade at best with the fact all the infrastructure would have to be constructed from scratch. To say nothing of pushing the British and Arabs out of the Middle East to that point in the first place.
And by the same logic, the British could in theory reverse that to keep the war going by focusing exclusively on fucking the Ottoman Empire up, either forcing a seperate peace or forcing Germany to agree to a general peace (with the threat of losing the Ottomans as an ally) or to commit forces to keep the Ottomans floating. With Germany and A-H having to keep reserve forces on hand to garrison France, Russia, and Italy, it'll be a bit difficult finding enough giveadamn to spare for the Ottomans.
So overall, it's a bloody mess and a pain in the ass for both sides. But the British got quite a lot of leverage in any negotiation. Only balanced out by how big their own stocks of giveadamn are.
And money of course. America needs it's loans payed back sooner or later.
Directly, it can't, really. But they could trade an independent Belgium for them, possibly. I never bought into Perfidous Albion's arguments that they'd either give up all of that leverage in the west for an otherwise white peace (that'd be like giving France Alsace-Lorraine for a 'white peace' with them), or else there'd just be no peace settlement, and they'd sit on the old battle lines forever. The British cared more about the Channel ports than they did about Africa.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
If the peace negotiations are in 1917 or so, then even if Germany can't twist Britain's arm, the latter is still going to be reeling financially and economically.
elkarlo
Banned
I wonder if they could get the bits held by France back? Or would the UK act like France is Vichy, and occupy them?
I really have no idea, as we have no idea what any major politicians said about this.
In a situation where Britain cannot dislodge Germany from their position on the continent or exhaust themselves to the point where they have to make peace, they'll likely be secure and actually gain territory in the form of colonies and what not; as Germany has no leverage to get them back if she wants to keep Europe in any peace deal.
tenthring
Banned
All of this depends dramatically on whether its 1914 or 1918.
Peace in 1914, even lasting peace, is way more possible. German demands will also be much less.
Peace in 1918 probably wouldn't cost Britain territory (they might even make gains in the Middle East and overseas), but I can see Germany keeping Brest Litovsk. In the west I'd imagine something close to status quo ante bellum.
However, I think that peace is a little harder to keep long term. There is going to be a lot of civil unrest all over the world, just like there was OTL.
Peace in 1914, even lasting peace, is way more possible. German demands will also be much less.
Peace in 1918 probably wouldn't cost Britain territory (they might even make gains in the Middle East and overseas), but I can see Germany keeping Brest Litovsk. In the west I'd imagine something close to status quo ante bellum.
However, I think that peace is a little harder to keep long term. There is going to be a lot of civil unrest all over the world, just like there was OTL.
LordKalvert
Banned
Its not the time of the victory but the magnitude of it. If the Germans just batter the French and Russians to the point that they give up hoping to get their territory back but can maintain some forces in the field, they might get relatively decent terms. In that case, the British might be able to hang on for a few years but unlikely. The French and Russians would be basically vassels of the Germans and forced to help them against the British (not that they would mind all that much)
On the other hand, say the Germans smash through the French lines in 1914 and cause a general collapse forcing them to abandon the fortress line and Paris and the Russians get hammered as in OTL 1915. In that case the terms are going to be very harsh indeed
As for the RN being able to protect Britain, the question becomes for how long? Freed of their continental opponents, the Germans will be free to concentrate on the British. If the peace terms include the Russian, Italian and French navies (a distinct possibility) then the RN is going to be in a rather dire pickle real fast. The continental powers already outnumbered the British at sea and had 30 dreadnoughts and Battle Cruisers on the stocks against Britain's 14. That doesn't bode well for the British
The smaller ships (destroyers, submarines and torpedo boats) are really going to put the Germans way ahead of the British Couple that with access to Northern France for a base and the British are in real trouble
Meanwhile, the blockade basically loses all effectiveness as the Germans could draw upon the resources of the continent and would have access to the Spanish and Portuguese ports
This is the Napoleonic nightmare of the British- a single power in uncontested control over the continent freed of all land commitments. The death of the British Empire is assured.
The British knew this and this is why they fought, died and spent their treasure- they were in a desperate struggle for their very existence
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I doubt if they could get the navies. These had a tendency to scuttle their ships rather than hand them over.
However, they might get the French submarines - most admirals took less pride in them than in battleships - and maybe all French stocks of torpedoes, naval mines and the like. If they also get the use of the French Atlantic ports for rearming etc that could be bad news for Britain.
However, they might get the French submarines - most admirals took less pride in them than in battleships - and maybe all French stocks of torpedoes, naval mines and the like. If they also get the use of the French Atlantic ports for rearming etc that could be bad news for Britain.
Or rather the Dominions might. Iirc, Togoland was the only one under direct British control. German East Africa and SWA were mainly occupied by South Africans, and the Pacific colonies below the Equator by Australia and NZ.
It would be interesting to see what happens in the latter cases. New Zealand took German Samoa very early in the War and for some decades people had been calling for a New Zealand empire in the Pacific, so i would think it could be upsetting for many for us to lose Samoa.
That being said, it was a small territory that we had no real strong economic or strategic gain from so perhaps we would be more pragmatic?
Given that the decision would likely be made by London, Wellington may feel a bit out of the loop.
Africa and the Middle East, because the major fronts if peace is not established. Perhaps with stronger German backing, the Ottoman Empire is able to fight back against Arab Revolution. Logistics is one thing, and IMO that would be dependent on the stability of the AH empire. The British would have to act fast in the Middle East and in Africa. Lettow-Vorbeck suddenly becomes an actual threat - if he can link up with German Field armies, they could cause some trouble.
I also wonder what the other allied parties would do in this scenario - (Japan, China in particular). The US, China and Japan are already placed in an unlikely alliance. I'd wager the US would fight on after the unrestricted submarine warefare and Zimmerman telegraphs. China may actually join the CP to kick out the foreigners (IOTL they had relations with CP till 1917 when they declared for the allies). If China does, you have the second sino- japanese war occurring early and that puts the US in a somewhat strange position.
Another effect of CP victory in Europe would be how the Austria Hungary Empire fairs. Does the defeat and probably annexing of parts of neighboring Italy, Serbia and possibly even Russia mean it survives its internal strife's? I'd wager, the ethnic problems may still stir up, but are unable to cause a complete dissolution of the Empire. Ofc this is also highly dependent on this problem that all of Europe would be facing.
Food. Where will they have enough to feed everyone? France and Germany were already starving, Italy relied on outside help and with the British blockading everything, it becomes a real issue. I thought about Russia providing, but it was a whole other powerkeg going off. Germany would have to have sufficient troops in Russia to make sure the *right* side (the side that is more lenient towards Germany) won, a difficult task (western intervention in IOTL failed to give the white army victory), to prevent a second front breaking out again (assuming the middle east becomes the main front after Europe). This also means Germany is overstretched and would probably result in German defeat in the Middle East.
Overall, I believe a peace agreement would have been the best option for Germany. They had the military, the only problem was that they didn't have the resources just yet. The allies would also fair well from one, whilst they sort out they all sort out their own issues from potential butterfly effects mentioned above. It seems likely Britain would get off scot-free until the next war is induced, in which case, it would probably have to fight Germany again.
Here is a crazy thought, Mexico sensing a CP total victory, declares against US. (ASB territory - but who knows).
I also wonder what the other allied parties would do in this scenario - (Japan, China in particular). The US, China and Japan are already placed in an unlikely alliance. I'd wager the US would fight on after the unrestricted submarine warefare and Zimmerman telegraphs. China may actually join the CP to kick out the foreigners (IOTL they had relations with CP till 1917 when they declared for the allies). If China does, you have the second sino- japanese war occurring early and that puts the US in a somewhat strange position.
Another effect of CP victory in Europe would be how the Austria Hungary Empire fairs. Does the defeat and probably annexing of parts of neighboring Italy, Serbia and possibly even Russia mean it survives its internal strife's? I'd wager, the ethnic problems may still stir up, but are unable to cause a complete dissolution of the Empire. Ofc this is also highly dependent on this problem that all of Europe would be facing.
Food. Where will they have enough to feed everyone? France and Germany were already starving, Italy relied on outside help and with the British blockading everything, it becomes a real issue. I thought about Russia providing, but it was a whole other powerkeg going off. Germany would have to have sufficient troops in Russia to make sure the *right* side (the side that is more lenient towards Germany) won, a difficult task (western intervention in IOTL failed to give the white army victory), to prevent a second front breaking out again (assuming the middle east becomes the main front after Europe). This also means Germany is overstretched and would probably result in German defeat in the Middle East.
Overall, I believe a peace agreement would have been the best option for Germany. They had the military, the only problem was that they didn't have the resources just yet. The allies would also fair well from one, whilst they sort out they all sort out their own issues from potential butterfly effects mentioned above. It seems likely Britain would get off scot-free until the next war is induced, in which case, it would probably have to fight Germany again.
Here is a crazy thought, Mexico sensing a CP total victory, declares against US. (ASB territory - but who knows).
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Germany's problem regarding Britain was they couldn't hurt them. They couldn't win in the Colonies, they couldn't win at sea, and they certainly couldn't invade the British Isles. They could hurt Britain in the economic war, but Britain could hurt them even more.
Britain could very well get away with no indemnity and no territorial losses. But given that her aim was to avoid German hegemony on the Continent and has lost tens of thousands of men and billions of pounds to fail in this aim this will be cold comfort. A CP victory will both strengthen Germany into an unassailable position on the Continent and strip Europe of potential allies for Britain, so Britain will have to become an armed camp and keep a strong army at home and in the near/mid east as well as a strong navy and air force to defend itself from invasion/raids and hold onto possessions on the periphery of Europe.
If France gives up, Britain will have to come to some sort of accommodation with the CP. They can still fight the Ottomans, and a British take over of Palestine is likely, how much else they get depends on when the French throw in the sponge. As far as German colonies go, I would expect a status quo ante - certainly the Japanese don't get what they did OTL. there may be some swapping with German colonies for French/Belgian ones. The Germans getting the French and Italian fleets, forget it not happening - the Russian Navy is good for targets not much else.
While a single super strong continental power is the British nightmare, there really isn't much they can do about it. If the French and Russians are out of it, and the Italians as well if they came in by the time peace is settled, you'll see the USA not extending any further credits to the UK for fighting the war, and the USA will want to trade with Germany directly, let alone indirectly through France, Scandanavia, or Spain. I can't see the RN stopping US ships enroute to Germany trying to continue the blockade, that would not end well.
While a single super strong continental power is the British nightmare, there really isn't much they can do about it. If the French and Russians are out of it, and the Italians as well if they came in by the time peace is settled, you'll see the USA not extending any further credits to the UK for fighting the war, and the USA will want to trade with Germany directly, let alone indirectly through France, Scandanavia, or Spain. I can't see the RN stopping US ships enroute to Germany trying to continue the blockade, that would not end well.
Germany is not in the position to force Uk to give up anything, except exchanging Belgium and more lenient treatment for France for Congo and the colonies back...but is more probable that they prefer keep Belgium.
So UK get away with the German colonial empire plus Congo and probably some part of the arabian penisula but Imperial Germany get Mitteleuropa.
Naturally the fun part start here, with everyone in Great Britain knowing that they had lost the war and face a continent controlled by the enemy and Germany facing overextension and in need to prop basically every regime in the balkans and east europe and in the middle of this party everywhere fascist and communist will decide to get the rein of power.
So UK get away with the German colonial empire plus Congo and probably some part of the arabian penisula but Imperial Germany get Mitteleuropa.
Naturally the fun part start here, with everyone in Great Britain knowing that they had lost the war and face a continent controlled by the enemy and Germany facing overextension and in need to prop basically every regime in the balkans and east europe and in the middle of this party everywhere fascist and communist will decide to get the rein of power.
Agreed, a CP victory means everything that Britain has aimed for in European politics has gone for a burton.
The British wont be able to nibble at the edges like they did in the Peninsular war as the edges are much better placed for Germany.
However, Germany aint got much hope of getting their colonies back
I could see them getting African ones back maybe (and possibly some French / Belgian sweeteners) in return for some horse-trading over Europe
Asia / Pacific stuff - no way are Japan, Aus and NZ giving them up, and theres nothing Germany can threaten them with or can offer them to sweeten any deal