Would an independent Philippines in 1898 lease a base and accept protection from the US ?

An early independent Philippines would have accepted US supervision like OTL Cuba did

  • Yes

    Votes: 23 51.1%
  • No

    Votes: 6 13.3%
  • Yes for a decade or two, after that, maybe not

    Votes: 16 35.6%

  • Total voters
    45

raharris1973

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If the US had not sought to annex the Philippines after the Spanish-American war, but been willing to recognize an independent Filipino republic, would the leaders of said republic, Aguinaldo, or whomever, been willing to compromise their new sovereignty by leasing a naval base to the US and submitting to "Platt Amendment" style protection from the US.

Substitute Philippines for Cuba in all the relevant articles below

I.-That the government of Cuba shall never enter into any treaty or other compact with any foreign power or powers which will impair or tend to impair the independence of Cuba, nor in any manner authorize or permit any foreign power or powers to obtain by colonization or for military or naval purposes or otherwise, lodgement in or control over any portion of said island.

II. That said government shall not assume or contract any public debt, to pay the interest upon which, and to make reasonable sinking fund provision for the ultimate discharge of which, the ordinary revenues of the island, after defraying the current expenses of government shall be inadequate.

III. That the government of Cuba consents that the United States may exercise the right to intervene for the preservation of Cuban independence, the maintenance of a government adequate for the protection of life, property, and individual liberty, and for discharging the obligations with respect to Cuba imposed by the treaty of Paris on the United States, now to be assumed and undertaken by the government of Cuba.

IV. That all Acts of the United States in Cuba during its military occupancy thereof are ratified and validated, and all lawful rights acquired thereunder shall be maintained and protected.

V. That the government of Cuba will execute, and as far as necessary extend, the plans already devised or other plans to be mutually agreed upon, for the sanitation of the cities of the island, to the end that a recurrence of epidemic and infectious diseases may be prevented, thereby assuring protection to the people and commerce of Cuba, as well as to the commerce of the southern ports of the United States and the people residing therein.

VI. That the Isle of Pines shall be omitted from the proposed constitutional boundaries of Cuba, the title thereto being left to future adjustment by treaty.

VII. That to enable the United States to maintain the independence of Cuba, and to protect the people thereof, as well as for its own defense, the government of Cuba will sell or lease to the United States lands necessary for coaling or naval stations at certain specified points to be agreed upon with the President of the United States.

VIII. That by way of further assurance the government of Cuba will embody the foregoing provisions in a permanent treaty with the United States.
 
If this is the initial offers I think the US gets some of it but not all.

If this is the compromise after saying would you rather be a colony until 1945 then the US gets most of its demands

If this is offered when Aguinaldo is Funston's prisoner, US gets everything listed
 
There are certain changes from OTL. Germany won't acquire Marianas or at least that US protection clause would make chopping Marianas and Palau from the Philippines harder without US intervention or any reaction from the Filipinos to send reinforcement in Palau and Marianas.

I suppose the US gets to buy Subic bay and Guam. If not Subic bay, batanes and Guam or even the rest of Marianas. This would create certain degree of changes in pacific WW1.
 
There are certain changes from OTL. Germany won't acquire Marianas or at least that US protection clause would make chopping Marianas and Palau from the Philippines harder without US intervention or any reaction from the Filipinos to send reinforcement in Palau and Marianas.

I suppose the US gets to buy Subic bay and Guam. If not Subic bay, batanes and Guam or even the rest of Marianas. This would create certain degree of changes in pacific WW1.
It would, in my opinion, lead to earlier US-Japanese hostility. Let's say the USA gets Guam and Subic Bay, and even 2 other bases (remember the US initially was given four areas for bases on smaller Cuba and developed 2 of them, and in the long run kept 1). Being bigger and important to China trade, we could see development and keeping of 2 bases in the Philippines. The Marshall Islands was already German by this point, so what happens to Belau (Palau), Micronesia, and Northern Marianas? Perhaps the US can support Filipino claims to Palau. Will Spain support or sell the other chains to the US? In OTL they rather sell them to Germany to keep them out of US hands, unlikely that will change. So, Germany may claim that Palau rightfully was sold to them, but not do anything but protest and not recognize the Filipino govt at all.

WWI comes along, and as per OTL the Japanese want German colonies to keep the USA from seizing them eventually. Does the Philippines have ideas of seizing them to keep the Japanese out? I'm guessing the Japanese get there first even if the Filipino military tries some operation. An independent Philippines allied to the US with US bases is not going to be viewed any differently by the Japanese in WWII. They still get conquered and puppetized.

After WWII the US takes Micronesia, Marshall, and N. Marianas. US bases are still US bases regardless of clauses of "continuous occupation" because- US superpower position, US just freed the Philippines, and Cold War issues where a super power needs your land and you need their protection, and because the US said so and you are the Philippines.

Palau probably starts agitating for independence by the 1950s. US position will determine if it happens. US probably doesn't want it independent until the Cold War ends. By as early as 1993 to as late as 2012 Palau probably is independent by pressure from UN, Japan, Australia, US, and the entire South Pacific island nations community; and the longer it goes on, the PRC as well. Historical precedents for why they can't hold on- Ethiopia with Eritrea, Indonesia with East-East (or Timor-Leste if you insist on being ridiculous and not using English ;-D)
 
There are certain changes from OTL. Germany won't acquire Marianas or at least that US protection clause would make chopping Marianas and Palau from the Philippines harder without US intervention or any reaction from the Filipinos to send reinforcement in Palau and Marianas.

I suppose the US gets to buy Subic bay and Guam. If not Subic bay, batanes and Guam or even the rest of Marianas. This would create certain degree of changes in pacific WW1.
The Philippines did not claim the Marianas and they were well under Spanish rule not threatened by the Philippines or the US. The Spanish would be fully able to sell them to the Germans and the Philippines sure can't fight the Germans on the high seas.
 
The Philippines did not claim the Marianas and they were well under Spanish rule not threatened by the Philippines or the US. The Spanish would be fully able to sell them to the Germans and the Philippines sure can't fight the Germans on the high seas.

Depends on Palau if they want to remain under the Philippines or or become German or none. It is not the high seas that is the problem. It is who is in de facto control of the islands. That can create a just case for US to interfere in the high seas.

The German Spanish treaty happened in 1899. Spanish American war ended in 1898. that is enough time for US or Filipinos troops to reinforce the islands.

As for the other islands not represented in the Philippine first republic but part of the Spanish East Indies. It totally depends if Philippines wants to claim or not or if any changes happens in ATL treaty of Paris. Or even take by force.

Always remember, after the Spanish American war, most US troops still went to Manila while the Filipinos dug trenches around Manila rather than somewhere else creating focus and tension in Luzon instead of thinking about what to do with Palau or the smaller islands.
 

raharris1973

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If this is the initial offers I think the US gets some of it but not all.

If this is the compromise after saying would you rather be a colony until 1945 then the US gets most of its demands

If this is offered when Aguinaldo is Funston's prisoner, US gets everything listed


I like your schema here, nicely presented.

So which of the roman-numeral articles would the Filipinos accept if this were the initial offer, and which would they reject?

If it is compromise after the US threatens to make the islands a colony, which 1 or 2 of the 7 articles would the Filipinos most likely balk at?
 
I like your schema here, nicely presented.

So which of the roman-numeral articles would the Filipinos accept if this were the initial offer, and which would they reject?

If it is compromise after the US threatens to make the islands a colony, which 1 or 2 of the 7 articles would the Filipinos most likely balk at?

If I may with my opinion.

4 and 6. The rest seems to be an ordinary foreign relations agreement. 6 because islands of pines isnt in the Philippines. 4 would depend on the time. If the Philippine American war started, Aquinaldo captured and Malvar surrenders that would be accepted. Aguinaldo captured doesn't mean the end of the Philippine republic. The powers of the president merely passed to Malvar with Malvar being the last of the organized recognized authority of the Philippine republic much like the US president's line of succession.

Right after Spanish American war before Philippine American war, US military occupation is limited. So you can say, the US and Philippines needs to go to war right after just to justify the existence of military occupation. Not unlike in Cuba in OTL spanish american war wherein US military presence is all over the place.
 
They'll accept. That's the original plan when Aguinaldo first talked to the Americans in Hong Kong.

The Philippines did not claim the Marianas...

Some interesting tidbit: the Malolos Congress has one allocated seat for a representative from Palau (locally called Palaos). It may indicate that they had a claim to it. Is it possible that they might claim Marianas too at some point?
 
They'll accept. That's the original plan when Aguinaldo first talked to the Americans in Hong Kong.



Some interesting tidbit: the Malolos Congress has one allocated seat for a representative from Palau (locally called Palaos). It may indicate that they had a claim to it. Is it possible that they might claim Marianas too at some point?
Yes, I've known about Palau. And no, there's a big difference geographically and from a point of uti possiditus. And from the point of Spain's ability and Filipino ability, the Spanish can, and will, sell to the Germans and then the Filipinos are screwed. There's a difference between claiming and occupying.
 
There seems to be nothing too outwardly egregious in the terms offered

The Devil is in the details

Number one seems to be countered by #VII. Its seems that #I should just have added "Except the USA" to the end of it

Number IV would be a problem post American-Filipino conflict as it looks like something to cover up war crimes. Post Americans & Filipinos Vs Spain they shouldn't have a problem with it

The Filipinos may look at #II and think well there is no way any government in history can pull that off successfully but hey we'll say we can do it and deal with the consequences later

As we can see from Cuba a Platt Amendment deal does not mean that the country that America helped liberate won't in the future turn against them. If America treats the other country as less than an equal and supports having dictators in charge the country will eventually rebel
 
Asking "will they accept?" suggests they have a choice. The Cubans didn't like the Platt Amendment either!
 

raharris1973

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What are the odds of the strategic, geopolitical role of the Philippines remaining very close to OTL through the middle of the 20th century?

To roughly outline the options, it would be:

A) The Philippines has important internal and constitutional differences from not being directly administered by the US, and may be the scene or a Marine intervention or two in the otts, teens or twenties to remedy a debt problem or violent transfer of power.

There are Filipinos resentful of the US regulatory role.

However, the US base lease is still persisting by 1933. The Roosevelt Administration considers a cancellation of the Platt Amendment powers over the Philippines as part of the "Good Neighbor" policy, but, seeing the adventuristic militarization of Japan from 1931, the Filipinos reach a strong majority consensus to retain US naval facilities, and the US agrees.

Like in OTL, the US is hesitant to back out of the Philippines in the 1930s, but also is unprepared to pay the price of seriously defending them.

WWII in the Pacific basically occurs as in OTL.

...an alternative to this might be:

B) Same as the above until about 1922. Then, in the aftermath of the Washington Naval Treaties which restrict the fortification of western Pacific possessions, the US under the Harding and Coolidge administrations decides to disengage from military and political intervention in the Philippines. This process is probably completed in the 1920s, but even if Subic Bay is not boarded up until the 1930s, the US does not offer the Philippines any protection deals, so the US is out by 33 or 34 at the latest.

The independent Philippine republic, with no proven US security commitment, becomes a "go with the flow" regional state, like Siam. While bothered by Japanese aggression in China, the Philippine government's cardinal principle is avoiding offense to Japan, and they adopt a policy of tacking as close to Japan as necessary to avoid conflict.

If there is a WWII, and an embargo of the Japanese over its China & Indochina policy, leading to a Japanese campaign to seize the DEI, Singapore and Malaya, the Philippines becomes a minor ally of Japan, like Thailand was, to avoid outright conquest by Japan.

yet another alternative could be:

C) A US intervention in the Philippines, under the auspices of the Platt Amendment, occurring during WWI or in the 1920s, goes sour enough that there is a persistent insurgency against the Americans, in addition to an American-collaborating government.

Japan comes to side with the Filipino insurgents by proxy and aids them with small arms deliveries, training and financial support. The Japanese real or perceived role causes the US to dig in.

As a consequence, US-Japan tensions are ratcheted up to Cold War levels in WWI, or in the 1920s, possibly forestalling the Washington Treaties altogether.

Japan's less militarist 1920s interlude is cut short. Although alt-Japan may be even more navalist than militarist.

With proxy conflict in the Philippines and naval competition a running sore, Japan may be unable to take over Manchuria or take on China.

The US might build up to an overwhelming edge against the Japanese in the Pacific during the 1920s.
 
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