Jammu and Kashmir (which should not be referred to as Kashmir, as that is the equivalent to calling Britain “England” - a word specifically referring to a part of the region, and mildly disparaging to the other regions), is, despite its general image as an Islamic region, a highly multicultural place, with substantial parts of the region majority-Hindu and majority-Buddhist. This can even be seen in how the Indian state has winter and summer capitals so as to placate the two largest ethnic groups, the Kashmiris and the Dogras, with Srinagar, the cultural capital of Kashmiri culture, as the summer capital, and Jammu, the cultural capital of Dogra culture, as the winter capital. Since Partition, the conflict between the two groups has become wrapped in sectarianism, with Kashmiris, mostly Muslim, seeking independence or becoming part of Pakistan, and Dogras, mostly Hindu, seeking the retaining of the status quo or even reduced autonomy. This has naturally resulted in tension, such as the recent rise of Kashmiri terrorism.
Maharaja Hari Singh, the last king of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, seems to have foreseen this. He believed that acceding to either India or Pakistan would result in at least one of his kingdom’s ethnic groups revolting, and so he sought to turn Jammu and Kashmir into an eastern Switzerland, a multicultural, neutral, nation. Furthermore, Sheikh Abdullah, the leader of the Kashmiri Muslims and a friend of Jawaharlal Nehru, wanted to accede to India, and Pashtuns were moving into Gilgit and the other Pashtun lands of the kingdom expecting an accession to India, and an idea floated around among many Pashtun clans was declaring the “Republic of Gilgit-Astore” if no accession was made. All the while, pro-Pakistani riots occurred in Poonch and Mirpur, very close culturally to Pakistani Punjab. These pressures meant that his kingdom broke apart, and the desperate king decided to accede to India. The rest is history - a dark, tumultuous history.
At the outset, it seems pretty difficult for the kingdom to survive. Hari Singh was simply cornered at every angle. The only pressure that could be easily relieved is Sheikh Abdullah’s vocal opposition to the monarchy, and even then, I don’t see Hari Singh defying all of the remaining pressures. But, let’s say that Hari Singh can somehow keep his kingdom intact despite some rebellion among the Pashtuns and in Poonch and Mirpur. Now, he could only do this by playing India and Pakistan off each other, and by placating both Dogras and Kashmiris. This is a very difficult game. Even if Hari Singh is smart enough to succeed at this, sooner or later, one of his successors is going to falter. And if this happens, it will result in a rebellion, one which the kingdom can only lose. Such a rebellion may result in ethnic cleansing, like what happened in Kashmir to the Hindu minority in the 1990s. And that will result in more sectarian conflict, which can only break apart the kingdom. In such a scenario, Jammu and Kashmir would be broken apart in a civil war. Bits and pieces would become independent, and other bits and pieces would become part of India and Pakistan. And thus, Jammu and Kashmir would be a failed state. A few rump states could perhaps survive, but Jammu and Kashmir would still be a failure in a fundamental way.
Maharaja Hari Singh, the last king of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, seems to have foreseen this. He believed that acceding to either India or Pakistan would result in at least one of his kingdom’s ethnic groups revolting, and so he sought to turn Jammu and Kashmir into an eastern Switzerland, a multicultural, neutral, nation. Furthermore, Sheikh Abdullah, the leader of the Kashmiri Muslims and a friend of Jawaharlal Nehru, wanted to accede to India, and Pashtuns were moving into Gilgit and the other Pashtun lands of the kingdom expecting an accession to India, and an idea floated around among many Pashtun clans was declaring the “Republic of Gilgit-Astore” if no accession was made. All the while, pro-Pakistani riots occurred in Poonch and Mirpur, very close culturally to Pakistani Punjab. These pressures meant that his kingdom broke apart, and the desperate king decided to accede to India. The rest is history - a dark, tumultuous history.
At the outset, it seems pretty difficult for the kingdom to survive. Hari Singh was simply cornered at every angle. The only pressure that could be easily relieved is Sheikh Abdullah’s vocal opposition to the monarchy, and even then, I don’t see Hari Singh defying all of the remaining pressures. But, let’s say that Hari Singh can somehow keep his kingdom intact despite some rebellion among the Pashtuns and in Poonch and Mirpur. Now, he could only do this by playing India and Pakistan off each other, and by placating both Dogras and Kashmiris. This is a very difficult game. Even if Hari Singh is smart enough to succeed at this, sooner or later, one of his successors is going to falter. And if this happens, it will result in a rebellion, one which the kingdom can only lose. Such a rebellion may result in ethnic cleansing, like what happened in Kashmir to the Hindu minority in the 1990s. And that will result in more sectarian conflict, which can only break apart the kingdom. In such a scenario, Jammu and Kashmir would be broken apart in a civil war. Bits and pieces would become independent, and other bits and pieces would become part of India and Pakistan. And thus, Jammu and Kashmir would be a failed state. A few rump states could perhaps survive, but Jammu and Kashmir would still be a failure in a fundamental way.