The presidential elections of the 1920s were disastrous for Democrats, and probably unwinnable with any candidate.
In 1924, a deadlock between Irish Catholic "wet" Al Smith and Southern protestant Prohibitionist William Gibbs McAdoo led to the compromise candidacy of John W. Davis, who offended nobody but excited few. Davis only got 28% of the popular vote (the worst Democratic performance in history), but 136 electoral votes, on the basis of the Democrats' 'Solid South,' winning every former Confederate state, plus Oklahoma.
Outside the South, Davis did poorly, finishing in 3rd in a number of Western and Midwestern states, behind the left-wing candidate Robert La Follette, who got 16% nationwide.
In 1928, Smith finally got the nomination, but provoked a firestorm of bigoted anti-Catholic controversy. Despite getting 40% of the vote, much more than Davis, Smith lost solidly Democratic states like Texas, Florida, Virginia, Tennessee, and North Carolina largely due to this prejudice. Despite this, Smith was able to narrowly swing Massachusetts and Rhode Island into his column, due to their large Catholic populations. He ended up with only 87 electoral votes. The third party vote evaporated.
So my question is this: if Smith had managed to win the nomination in 1924, how would he have done? He would've lost, certainly, but would his electoral vote be greater or lesser than Davis's? His popular vote? How would Smith's nomination affect La Follette's candidacy?