Would a worse performing USSR have motivated an earlier Allied invasion of mainland Europe?

You won't be invading that early without major differences. The earliest time frame mentioned is the fall.
 
You won't be invading that early without major differences. The earliest time frame mentioned is the fall.
True, the Soviets would have to be doing much worse against Army Group South, for Op. Roundup to be needed.

But the swap in plans to invade Guadalcanal came about quickly, too.

In this ATL, unlikely for Op. Jubilee, aka the Dieppe Raid, to take place, and the Invasion wouldn't be at that area, anyway, but to take Brest or Cherbourg, and could only take place with every scrap of amphibious capability from the Pacific to the UK.
So Marshall would have to put up with US Marines being a large part of Sledgehammer. No other way to do it.
 
Sure they do that.
But then you need logistics to keep them doing that after they arrive, or they end up like the French aircraft at Martinique



going deeper into Russia may be better, but units still get ground down in combat, and need time to rebuild, and provide security.
Partisans everywhere.

!0th Panzer kickjed Soviet Ass in early 1942.
It was in no condition to kick anyone's ass in May, 1942. It took them almost a year to rebuild after a big victory
Which they had, they built that up earlier during the Battle of France and the Battle of Britain. Plenty of bases already and they were connected to logistical systems already.

Sure, it would risk part of Russia but the Germans can afford losing territory in Russia more than they can afford it in France. If the Wallies take and hold a beach-head in France or, worse yet, take a port the Americans can certainly pour in. To prevent that the Germans would ship troops. There are also the newly trained troops that everyone , including the Germans, had every year due to more boys being old enough to fight.
 
Which they had, they built that up earlier during the Battle of France and the Battle of Britain. Plenty of bases already and they were connected to logistical systems already.
Not around Brest. Where you going to put the Fw-200s?

Airfields around Amiens will not help with carrier aircraft comin in on Cherbourg
Germans can afford losing territory in Russia
But that's the whole reason for libenstrum.

really think Hitler will allow ground recently won, to be given up? 'Not one step back' was the motto

Recall, we have Hitler and the Nazis doing things, not Notler and the Notzis

only some units would be pulled from the line, but not so many that the already set goals could not be reached, cutting the Volga and getting the Oil
 
I'd look OTL Operation Shingle for guidance. A prolonged siege of a limited bridgehead where both sides commit more and more forces to the front. The Allies can be much worse than they were in late 1942 and still gain a bridgehead deep enough to be held against counterattacks, because the German presence in France is minimal compared to 1944.
 
I'd look OTL Operation Shingle for guidance. A prolonged siege of a limited bridgehead where both sides commit more and more forces to the front. The Allies can be much worse than they were in late 1942 and still gain a bridgehead deep enough to be held against counterattacks, because the German presence in France is minimal compared to 1944.
I would think this was simply because the Germans concentrated their forces along the Atlantic Front as an invasion became more likely, around the end of 1943 to June 1944. I think people overestimate German forces in Normandy for 1942 and underestimate allied forces.
 
I'd look OTL Operation Shingle for guidance. A prolonged siege of a limited bridgehead where both sides commit more and more forces to the front. The Allies can be much worse than they were in late 1942 and still gain a bridgehead deep enough to be held against counterattacks, because the German presence in France is minimal compared to 1944.
The only issue there is that Operation Strangle became a major component of that and we can then talk about Normandy as a model if we're factoring in that level of air and sea power.

Since things would be more even it might be better to consider the early Tunisian fighting instead, though that was more of a meeting engagement than the beachhead fighting it's be in Normandy. Sicily in 1943 was probably more similar, but the Axis forces were much weaker than they'd have been in 1942-43 in France and the Allied air forces much more able to support a landing.
 
Not around Brest. Where you going to put the Fw-200s?

Airfields around Amiens will not help with carrier aircraft comin in on Cherbourg


But that's the whole reason for libenstrum.

really think Hitler will allow ground recently won, to be given up? 'Not one step back' was the motto

Recall, we have Hitler and the Nazis doing things, not Notler and the Notzis

only some units would be pulled from the line, but not so many that the already set goals could not be reached, cutting the Volga and getting the Oil
Airfields can be built, this isn't rocket science. I doubt the Allies can pull off hiding the preparations with perfect secrecy. As far as Hitler is concerned this is Hitler while the Wehrmacht is still wining, when he was more reasonable about it. At the very least they can pull troops and go on the defensive in certain areas. They cancel an offensive or two and ship troops west.
 
Not to mention Brest would probably be rejected for the same reasons it was OTL too vulnerable to weather from the Atlantic, it would be easier to keep the allies bottled up there. And finally it would be at the edge of fighter support from the Uk.
 
I doubt the Allies can pull off hiding the preparations with perfect secrecy.
You mean like D-Day?

Another thing, the Allies had just activated the most important Double-Agent of all time, Garbo

A tale would be spun that the Allies were planning to get back into Norway or something plausible
Not to mention Brest would probably be rejected for the same reasons it was OTL too vulnerable to weather from the Atlantic, it would be easier to keep the allies bottled up there. And finally it would be at the edge of fighter support from the Uk.
Brest works for 1942, as they expected to get bottled up: they wouldn't have enough to get to Berlin in one season, so it would be a grinding match, much like Italy turned out.

But would work, as it's job was to devert forces from the Eastern Front, keeping the USSR in the War
 
At the very least they can pull troops and go on the defensive in certain areas. They cancel an offensive or two and ship troops west.
You mean cancelling in Russia and shipping those troops west? Well, that would be the main goal of an earlier landing in this ATL. So mission accomplished.

As long as it doesn't get kicked back into the sea within two weeks. And the landings in Italy prove that's hard to do with naval support. Sure allied losses would be heavier than D-day, and it will most likely be a stalemate for quite awhile, but if it saves Russia, it is mission accomplished.
 
You mean cancelling in Russia and shipping those troops west? Well, that would be the main goal of an earlier landing in this ATL. So mission accomplished.

As long as it doesn't get kicked back into the sea within two weeks. And the landings in Italy prove that's hard to do with naval support. Sure allied losses would be heavier than D-day, and it will most likely be a stalemate for quite awhile, but if it saves Russia, it is mission accomplished.
I don't think it would last two weeks, I doubt it would last two days. You have no idea how unprepared US forces were in 1942, it was a far cry from 1944!
 
I don't think it would last two weeks, I doubt it would last two days. You have no idea how unprepared US forces were in 1942, it was a far cry from 1944!
Yet look what General Vandegrift did with the 1st Marine Division against a very motivated enemy in mid 1942.
The same level of opposition would not be there two weeks after landing.

How many Germans were fighting to the last man in 1942?
 
Ok, time to look at the facts and numbers.
Fortifications: At the end of 1941 almost exclusively field fortifications only, with only fortified areas being the heavy coastal battery positions built to support Seelöwe, submarine pens and the Channel Islands.

Occupation forces: A large number of second-rate troops, static divisions tasked to protect the coast against commando operations. Formations raised during 1942 were really weak or refitting after being rendered combat ineffective in the Eastern Front. The static coastal divisions had a real zoo of artillery, with one third-of their artillery park of c. 1200 guns being captured foreign pieces with limited ammunition supplies and a logistical nightmare for prolonged combat.
The infantry regiments received modern German weapons to replace their WW-1 era equipment and captured small arms in 1942. In general the divisions in France were made up from recruits, recovering veterans and older reservists. The divisions trained new recruits and allowed recovering veterans to rest and refit before being sent back East. In addition there were Ersatz divisions, reserve units that were mostly used for training recruits.

Note that the limited supplies meant that the artillery units had no reserve to practice. There was no coordinated system for controlling the fire of the coastal artillery batteries, as Kriegsmarine and Heer had conflicting views on how to employ them.

Germans used France as a main training and refitting area for their new formations. Between February and September they created the 19th and 20th Welles, with 4 new divisions established and immediately sent to Eastern Front in March 1942, and 3 standard and 5 static divisions created in September.

Size of garrison during 1942, as divisions came and went:
Jan-March: 29 Inf (most of them static), April-June 31 Inf divisions, 3 motorized or panzer divisions (resting and refitting.)
July-September, 30 infantry divisions, 7 motorized or panzer divisions. (resting and refitting.)
October-December: c. 45 divisions, 10 of which went to occupy Vichy areas, 10 motorized or Panzer divisions, out of which one panzer and three SS panzer divisions went to occupy Vichy areas. (all are still resting and refitting and due to leave back to East as soon as they have recovered.)

Do note that the actual number of divisions is deceptive, as many divisions sent back from the Eastern Front in OTL were shattered formations that required extensive refit and rest to restore their operational capacities.

So during 1942 there was a buildup from 29 to 35 infantry divisions, and from no panzer reserves to 6-7 armored and motorized units resting and refitting in France.

The Germans started 1942 with 25 divisions in the West, 20 of which were static coastal divisions, with 3 more divisions due to head out to the Eastern Front.
After the Dieppe Raid, they really started to reinforce their garrisons by sending battle-worn divisions like the 7th Panzer to the West for rest and refit for prolonged periods of time.

Now, compare this to 1943:


German strategy:
The German commander, von Rundstedt, wanted to create a mobile reserve, but since he did not have one at the beginning of 1942, he was forced to try to defeat the Allied landing at the coast.

Until mid-November 1943, when Panzergruppe West was formed, the only permanently deployed armoured unit in France was the 100th Panzer Brigade, using captured French tanks and obsolete German panzers.


In 1942 von Rundstedt believed that it would be impossible to maintain enough good units in reserve to launch the counterattack he believed necessary to drive the Allies back into the sea, and that the bulk of his forces could only defend the coastline as a static garrison formation. This state of affairs was not remedied until late 1943, when Hitler issued Directive Number 51.

Source: The Atlantic Wall - History and Guide, by J.E. Kaufmann, H.W. Kaufmann,
Jankovic-Potocnik, A. & Tonic, Vladimir
 
OTL

Note Operation Torch forces sailed from US, so that didn't show in this list

There wouldn't be many German Troops defending at that time, either, and they had even less experience in defending beaches from a Naval assault.

German Effort was put into protecting U-Boat bases and building the Pens, than doing anything with the beaches where Roundup was supposed to land
How many of those shown in the chart are combat troops though?
 
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