Would a "white" Russia post ww1 split the Entente?

This depends a lot on how badly things degenerate before the revolution s defeated. Also, dealing with internal unrest will probably be easier once the war is over, especially if the regime can reap some of the benefits of being a theoretical "winner" in the war. Also, a white Russia would not have to deal with foreign intervention and would instead enjoy the support of it's former allies, at least in the immediate postwar years.

Anyway, let's assume for the sake of argument that the Russian empire survives in a good enough shape to be able to throw it's weight around on the international stage immediately after the war ends. How does this affect international relationships?

Russia post civil war will not be in good enough shape to throw its weight around. If you are looking for a realistic scenario, that's not it. If you want fantasy scenario with no bearing in reality, go ahead, but realize you are writing complete fiction with little based in reality.

I think you are being way too blase about the true nature of Russia's internal politics. Things had already badly degenerated before the February Revolution had even happened. By the October Revolution is was even worse. The actual civil war plunged everything into chaos and horror. The time when anyone could put back the Russian state without terror and bloodshed is over. All the diseased pus of the Tsarist state was coming out.

The winner of any Russian Civil War won't be getting any benefits from being the winner except that they've eliminated their main competitors and thus wield centralized power enforced by the gun and bayonet (a big direct benefit, but not the intangible one you seem to imply). Even the Soviets had to deal with Makhno's peasant partisans, labor unrest, sporadic revolts, and nationalist rebellions. Simply because the Whites are winners doesn't mean they don't face resistance. They probably face even more resistance than the Soviets because unlike them, the Whites never condescended to even pretend in land reform or pro-peasant policies. Internal unrest will be severe for a very long time.

There was a very widespread peasant's movement in Russia before the World War I, during it, and after it. That won't go away. Stalin's eventual solution was collectivization and starving the Ukraine into submission. What are the Whites going to do? This will be the most important decision the Whites must make for their state to survive. It will take years to play out.

What support do you think the Allied are going to give the White government? Neither the British nor French are going to waste time, money, or blood at reassembling the Tsarist empire. They may not be hostile to it, but they won't be interested in helping the Whites suppress the Finns, Poles, or Georgians. Even the nationalist assemblies that petered out during the Red's victories will be around in a White victory, and the Allies will play footsie with them for a while until they determine if they are viable or not. The western Ukrainians might still drag Poland into a war with a White Russia. The Kuban would expect strong autonomy, if not outright independence, after a White Victory. Any White government is going to be obsessed about the aftermath of Brest-Litovsk and all of the subsequent declarations of independence afterwards.

Much of Russian "foreign policy" in the next ten years will be based on dealing with these de facto independent nations. You simply can't handwave that away.

You really need to define how the White state developed - is it a weak pseudo-democracy like much of Central/Eastern Europe in the interwar years? Does it lean to a liberal democracy? Is it autocratic? How does it treat the ethnic minorities within its power? Which lands did it successfully retake? Which ones slipped from its grasp? Only then will you know what the Russian foreign policy objectives are.
 
If the war ends before 1917, there will be no revolution, and if it ends before the end of that year, there will be no civil war, because whatever government is in power will have an achievement to take credit for: victory (and I mean victory in world war 1, just to make myself clear this time)

Also, even the Bolscheviks managed to restore Russia to great power status approximately within a decade, even if they turned Russia into a pariah state while mismanaging the economy and committing genocide.
 
It depends on the detail of what happens. Is the Tsarist Govt obviously restored by the interventionist powers or does it hang on and remain a belligerent vs. Germany - and what does a Bolshevik failure do the German revolution?

I think you re probably looking at some of the periphery maybe breaking off, Finland for example but noone is really interested in supporting a Ukrainian nationalist movement for example - except possibly the Germans. More may go if the Whites are restored by Intervention. And the Entente will be interested in getting repaid by the Russians.

Poland is a maybe but that’s much harder to do if Tsarist Russia remains a belligerent- make one out of the Polish parts of Germany and AH yes, a victorious power surrendering a lot of land, not likely and the German puppet created in the war would be seen as just that.

I would expect a slightly stronger Russia/France alliance - it worked did it not - very interested in making sure German revanchism did not take place possibly downright vengeful when the details of German 'peace' proposals go public and a more distant UK, continental intervention is a bad idea after WW1.

The idea of a German/Russian rapprochement after the propaganda and devastation of war, especially when the news of the sealed train gets out is a bit daft.

Russia would remain part of the world economic system which will benefit Europe overall so possibly a milder depression but the Franco Russian focus will be on keeping Germany down for as long as possible.
 

Esopo

Banned
It is very simple: if a poland exists, there will be a german-russian cooperation. If there is not, there wont be anything like that. Russia will be too afraid of germany attacking it again to risk to make stronger a great power on its borders.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The White's chances of victory are pretty much nil after the close of 1919, so in that scenario the damage is going to be far less than that endured in years it took for the Reds to beat back the Whites.

The Whites will probably have lukewarm relations with the Western powers and bad ones with Germany (Lenin was a "German spy", the Reds were armed by the Germans, etc.).

Since the Anglo-French backed pretty much every White warlord from Vrangel to Denikin to Miller to Kolchak, they probably won't be seen negatively.

Frankly, I could see a Russo-German rapprochement over a partition of Poland, which the Anglo-French may tolerate as the lack of a Red Beast renders Poland's strategic role superfluous.

The West will probably be willing to overlook Russian adventurism in the Baltics, though Finland may be pushing it.
 
Like I say it depends on the detail. I think the premise of a different alliance structure could work but what iot would be depends on the detail of events.

If Tsarism remains intact throughout - i.e. suppression of the February revolution then any breakaway states are likely to be seen as German/AH puppets and suppressed during or immediately post war.

If on the other hand the February revolution succeeds then any recognition of breakaway states BY RUSSIA is likely to be accepted by the rest of the Entente. But is that the maintenance of the tsarist state?

If February and/or October Revolutions succeed and there is a White counterrevolution that restores the True Tsar and they then attempt to recover the breakaway states there is another situation and the reaction of the western Powers would depend on the state concerned.

If the Tsar makes peace and avoids the revolution but recognises a set of CP established border statelets and subsequently attacks them another circumstance.

e.g. a Finland or Poland breaks away in reaction to a Bolshevik attempt to take it over, achieves independence from the Bolsheviks is recognised by the world but is then attacked by a restored Tsarist Govt. is different from a Ukrainian state established by the Germans, that maintains its independence from the Bolsheviks but is then attacked by the restored Tsar.

That list is I think in increasing likelihood of the Entente breaking up over the issue with I think Britain being the first to go. France is likely to stick with Russia for longer and at least acquiesce to a reconquest of breakaway states through fear of Germany and in return for backing for some of their more aggressive actions which they did not get from Britain.

As Russia gets closer to it the more Germany will reach out for allies. There is a decision for Germany to make as to how much it seeks autarky and how much it integrates into the world, which it came close to in the 20's.

If the UK had been driven apart from Russia and France by Russian actions the UK could end up acting with the USA to bring Germany back into the world rather than backing France. dont forget it only took 6-9 years after WW2 for the UK and US to back German rearmament, depends on the threat.
 
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