Would a revolution/civil war in the russian empire lead to a wider Euroean war?

Having studied the Russian Empire in the 1910s I'm of the opinion that some sort of revolution, successful or not, was inevitable by the mid 20's. This would I think lead to at the very least the Finns, Balts and Poles attempting to break away and regain their independence. Indeed the Germans (and some Swedes) were encouraging the Finns to break away, going so far as offering training to separatists. In the absence of the Great War would this revolution/civil war lead to a General European War?

The treaty system would still be in place so German and presumably Austrian interference could lead to a French military response. Still would they, treaty bound or not go to war in support of an ally that is tearing itself apart, or would they content themselves with making disapproving noises and sit it out? Would Russia seek to divert the attention of its dissatisfied population from revolution by attacking Austria, Germany or the Ottoman Empire and what would be the response from France and Britain if they did? Do they support the clear aggressor their ally or sit it out?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Frankly, I think that if anyone is likely to start a war in such a scenario, it would be Germany. Indeed, this might be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Germany to defeat the Franco-Russian alliance after the completion of Russia's Great Military Program.
 
Having studied the Russian Empire in the 1910s I'm of the opinion that some sort of revolution, successful or not, was inevitable by the mid 20's. This would I think lead to at the very least the Finns, Balts and Poles attempting to break away and regain their independence. Indeed the Germans (and some Swedes) were encouraging the Finns to break away, going so far as offering training to separatists. In the absence of the Great War would this revolution/civil war lead to a General European War?

The treaty system would still be in place so German and presumably Austrian interference could lead to a French military response. Still would they, treaty bound or not go to war in support of an ally that is tearing itself apart, or would they content themselves with making disapproving noises and sit it out? Would Russia seek to divert the attention of its dissatisfied population from revolution by attacking Austria, Germany or the Ottoman Empire and what would be the response from France and Britain if they did? Do they support the clear aggressor their ally or sit it out?

Successful or Not... well, in these circumstances NOT seems like the more likely option. So long as the Czar has the bayonets at home to picket his throne and the Russian logstics/transport system isen't being overburdened by taking away so many family's breadwinners and having to prioritize supplies for the front lines vs. civilian usage (Not to mention Russia would still be able to export via the Black Sea, allowing much needed money to flow back into the economy and government coffers), you just aren't going to see the level of mass military indispline or large amount of (passive at least) support from the common people to allow the handful of die-hard Revolutionaries to overturn the state. When it boils right down to it, that vast majority of Russian peasants were content if they were left at peace, had enough bread to eat, and aren't seeing their family members shipped off to die, so any insurgencey is either going to have to be covert (I.E. not enough to spark a war... unless we see a Franz Ferdinand type situation occur) if it dosen't want to get stomped under the hooves of loyal Cossacks.

If a revolution on a grander scale did occur, it would have to be because Russia's civilian economy was so bad it was producing almost war-like privations. At that point, the Eastern Front would be a joke, since the Russian army can't be mobilized on the border or even to the size it was IRL due to much earlier sabotage/civilian opposition. If anything, Czar Nicholas would realize his only hope of survival would be to get the Germans to accept peace as soon as possible so he could rush the army home to put down the domestic revolt; and if that leaves the most rebellious populations for the German army to put down rather than his, so much the better.
 
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