Decisive 1914
Short-War outcome
CP Victory –
Germans do better in France through better luck, more French, British, Belgian mistakes
Settlement yields punishment, territorial losses of Serbia, probable indemnities, and maximum German territorial gains of Briey-Longwy, Polish border strip, maybe colonial border strips.
Arrived at through French realizing dire situation early, Brits, either as a neutral, or an unassailable belligerent threatening Germany with the prospect of making the war a long, drawn out affair. Germany quitting while ahead.
Chances of rematch – Germans will feel strong, French and Russians weak, Germans secure. British dissatisfied.
Entente Victory
French do better through better uniforms, realistic defensive plans, stronger left-wing deployment- Maybe even Belgians do a bit better, and Germans have some bad luck. German front line ends up no more than halfway through Belgium. Combined with defeats of Austrian offensives and only defensive victories in the east.
Not gaining east or west, Germany & Austria start hunting for a white peace. For it to work, Russia and France need to let them. Once joined, France may be hardest to stop, short of cession of Alsace-Lorraine.
If Anglo-French-Belgian counter-offensive presses Germans back from late 1914, and Russians pick up in Galicia in 1915, or minor neutrals declare for Entente, CPs may consider peace ceding A-L in west, Posen or Ost und WestPreussen in East, Galicia and maybe Bosnia, as an alternative to getting totally steamrolled.
Chances of rematch-
French will feel strong, but tired, and satisfied, not interested in boat rocking. Russians will feel tired and only a little more secure externally than before. Germans and Austria will feel more chastened, weaker and insecure. They are less likely to feel like they were “this close” to victory and will feel that fundamental diplomatic realignments, new sets of allies, not just small tweaks or fealty to the “perfect” military plan, will be needed for security. The German military won’t lose all prestige, but it’s prestige will be cut down in size.
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Medium-or Long War
It takes two to make peace, one to make a fight. Ending WWI early, in less than a year, requires everything to go just right, the losers to recognize their predicament, the winners to not overreach, and for this all to happen at the right times and not get ruined by tactical moves designed to haggle for large or small advantages over terms.
A deal is not impossible, but it’s hard.
It’s much easier, even in the event that a much greater German success in France in 1914 makes it the all-but certain victor of the war, to imagine that haggling and jockeying for relative advantage, each side’s greed, bad luck and timing, miscalculation and miscommunication, will lead to a settlement *not* being made, and for follow-on campaigning to occur wherever possible (western and southern France, Russia, the seas, the Near East) for another couple years, even after potential false starts at making peace.