I have approached this from an earlier POD, a stalemated Great War and no destruction of Germany or its position as a Great Power. In that I se the Great Depression has having a different and lesser toll on economies outside the USA and I likely have no WNT to curb the arms race. In that I think Japan is more constrained and a wholesale Pacific War less likely. What you need is Japan to conquer Manchuria in 1931. That to me is what set in motion the collision course with the USA. But I look to Japanese aggression earlier and I see that before the Great Depression the Great Powers did have mixed success in restraining Japan, but Japan was flexing its muscles. I think that pattern continues. Japan wants to expand and keep China from rising again as the natural regional powerhouse to assure she is the power in Asia. The questions include how does the Anglo-Japanese Alliance survive or evolve. if their is a USSR how does it support the KMT and confront Japan and how does Japan react, how much stronger are the Europeans without a Nazi Germany, Fall of France, etc., and does Germany use China to reassert its position in Asia and punish Japan for taking its possessions?
I think tensions would run high in China for decades and it might remain more divided and weak overall, the Western powers had no interest in getting China up to strength but they were opposed to Japan or any other player getting too powerful. In my scenario FDR runs for two terms and is out of office in 1940, there is not war beginning in 1939, the Great Powers squabble and position but Japan has no obvious opening. I think they take Manchuria and set themselves against the other powers but from there the war is attritional and contained, Germany supports Chiang, the USSR aids the KMT and token supports the CCP, the USA drips aid to Chiang, the USA is warmer with Germany's efforts and cooler with the UK who has the vestiges of their alliance with Japan, sells them Persian oil, trades more freely and Japan is more tied to the Pound than the Dollar and the USA. The French aid Japan to weaken Germany and Italy moves in Africa when eyes turn to Asia. Not stable and different alignments subject to change, the model for things in China since the Opium Wars.