Would a Japanese Invasion of the USSR during Barbarossa have actually helped?

lionhead

The Soviets had plenty of troops in the far east to hold the Japanese. Even if the japanese would prepare a decent sized army for it. The Japanese could march, the Soviet retreat untill the supplylines of the japanese dry out and they come to a halt. They would have gained nothing, not unless they pass Mongolia which is further than Berlin to Moscow.

wiking said:
You mean advance in the east?
Yes, it would have cut off the port where 50% of Lend-Lease came in. The least dangerous route too.
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not it didn't. the Arctic route remians open so supplies will still flow.
 
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nbcman

Donor
lionhead said:
no, not that route. I meant the Soviet Arctic route through the Bering strait towards Krestovaja i believe. But they could reach all the way to Archangelsk if they wanted or needed to.
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IOTL, the shipping through the Northern Sea Route was about 6% of what went through Vladivostok - and convoys with icebreakers only could use the Northern Sea Route 3 months of the year. The flow would be a dribble assuming the Arctic ports could receive much more with their limited port / rail capacity.

Pacific Route - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 

MattII

CountofDooku said:
It secured the northern convoy route to keep supplying Russia for the Americans again thanks to US airdominance by quality and numbers, whiel also putting main Japanese islands in bomber range quit fatser then the southern route.
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It will take months to get anywhere, and will provide the Japanese ample time to prepare.
 
CountofDooku

CountofDooku

MattII said:
It will take months to get anywhere, and will provide the Japanese ample time to prepare.
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Prepare what? Getting reinforcements and troops away from the war in Russia or the southern resoruce region they need to protect at all cost or lose the War even faster?
 

James Ricker

There could be some interesting butterflies post war
Mao would find himself to be a popular local communist leader in an area controlled by Stalin.
Stalin would try to remove him, and replace them with someone a little more controllable.
Mao was a crafty guy more than likely Stalin would not be able to just simply remove him.
The Soviets could find themselves fighting and insurgent war in northern China until Stalin's death.
That would be an enormous financial drain on the Soviet Union right after World War II, anyone who brought the subject up to Stalin would probably have a very short life expectancy.
That will probably dramatically change who was in line to assume power after the death of Stalin not to mention a potential economic collapse of this Soviet Union in the 1950s.
 

GuildedAgeNostalgia

CountofDooku said:
It would not do mouch, at least not once the route over Persia worked for Land-Lease to Russia. Spain lacked the tanks and anti-tank weapons to oppose what the Russiand had in 1939, let alone later models. Russia also never pulled troops from the Far East to save Moscow, just western Siberia/ Central Asia and once the Germans are defeated like OTL, these forces turn east and crush what is left of the Japanese Army if the Russian Far East Army did not manage to do so by then on it's own.
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The Persian route can't handle all the traffic. It also relies on Volga River barges, which could be cut off if a Japanese Invasion ties downs troops needed for the Western Front.

Hell, a Japanese Invasion might mean that the Soviets don't even have the manpower to occupy Persia.
 
CountofDooku

CountofDooku

GuildedAgeNostalgia said:
The Persian route can't handle all the traffic. It also relies on Volga River barges, which could be cut off if a Japanese Invasion ties downs troops needed for the Western Front.

Hell, a Japanese Invasion might mean that the Soviets don't even have the manpower to occupy Persia.
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THe Persian route was heavily expandet OTL and included later even railway lines.

Also Japan never tied down and Sovied troops needed at the Western Front, those came from Western Siberia close to the Ural and Central Asia, no Far East forces ever left east Asia during the war and even if they would have, Stalin could easily loose snowy land in East Siberia unlike in Europe. The Soviet supply lines over Karilia and Persia could make up for that early on as they did so OTL partly too. Even if Japan blocks of the Vladiwostok supply lines that only delays the end for a few months until the AMericans focus on the northern route to keep Russia in the War, as without Russia, Europe first and a victory in the war would overall not be archived.
 

MattII

CountofDooku said:
Prepare what? Getting reinforcements and troops away from the war in Russia or the southern resoruce region they need to protect at all cost or lose the War even faster?
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No months for the Japanese to use Submarines to interdict US buildups. The most accessible route is between Sakhalin and Hokkaido, so you have to bring in enough firepower to keep the Japanese on Hokkaido suppressed.

James Ricker said:
That would be considered a strategic nightmare for Japan. American heavy bombers based on the Kanchaka peninsula would be something the Japanese would not want to see.
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No, but Japan has plenty of submarines capable of interdicting the route, so it's not all one way.
 
CountofDooku

CountofDooku

MattII said:
No months for the Japanese to use Submarines to interdict US buildups. The most accessible route is between Sakhalin and Hokkaido, so you have to bring in enough firepower to keep the Japanese on Hokkaido suppressed.
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The Japanese never used their subs to any capable task OTL for the most part and even the germans wouldn't gotten far with most of their subs and crews, so whats fixing that here ASB's?

As far as I know that's stretching the imagination, as is any completel conquest of Japan in the Far East. Vladiwostok besieged, maybe taken ok, everything beyond the Amur or Chita however is a absurd fantasy outside any Japanese abilities based in reality and the fewer land the Japanese take the less Stalin cares about sending enough forces to Europe (wish he has either way as no far East forces ever fought in Europe OTL either) so the war might take a little longer, with Russia grabbing maybe fewer of Asia, but not much else changes.
 
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MattII

CountofDooku said:
THe Persian route was heavily expandet OTL and included later even railway lines.
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Only became active in mid-1942.

[quuote]Also Japan never tied down and Sovied troops needed at the Western Front, those came from Western Siberia close to the Ural and Central Asia, no Far East forces ever left east Asia during the war and even if they would have, Stalin could easily loose snowy land in East Siberia unlike in Europe.[/quote]It's not what the Japanese can do, it's what Stalin thinks they can. If Japan attacks, those troops don't move.

The Soviet supply lines over Karilia and Persia could make up for that early on as they did so OTL partly too. Even if Japan blocks of the Vladiwostok supply lines that only delays the end for a few months until the AMericans focus on the northern route to keep Russia in the War, as without Russia, Europe first and a victory in the war would overall not be archived.
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Persia didn't become really active until mid 1942.

CountofDooku said:
The Japanese never used their subs to any capable task OTL for the most part and even the germans wouldn't gotten far with most of their subs and crews, so whats fixing that here ASB's?
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Japanese submarines only really targetted military ships, of which there'd be plenty going to this northern base. Also, Roosevelt and Stalin have to actually work out an agreement to allow the Americans to base out of Kamchatka, which is something Stalin is unlikely to be happy about.
 
CountofDooku

CountofDooku

MattII said:
It's not what the Japanese can do, it's what Stalin thinks they can. If Japan attacks, those troops don't move.
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Stalin knew what they could do and Stalin didn't move the troops, not OTL and he doesn't have to do so TTL. The troops used in the west came from Western Siberia and Central Asia, aka near the Ural industrial regions, not central Siberia or the Far East, those never moved during the whole Second World War and those would have been enough to stop and/ or delay the Japanese long enough to finish the Nazi's in Europe. Nothing short of ASB can change that reality.
 

MattII

CountofDooku said:
Stalin knew what they could do and Stalin didn't move the troops, not OTL and he doesn't have to do so TTL. The troops used in the west came from Western Siberia and Central Asia, aka near the Ural industrial regions, not central Siberia or the Far East, those never moved during the whole Second World War and those would have been enough to stop and/ or delay the Japanese long enough to finish the Nazi's in Europe. Nothing short of ASB can change that reality.
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I'm talking about the ones in Siberia. Those didn't get moved until Stalin was sure the Japanese wouldn't hit him from behind.
 
CountofDooku

CountofDooku

MattII said:
I'm talking about the ones in Siberia. Those didn't get moved until Stalin was sure the Japanese wouldn't hit him from behind.
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The Soviet Japanese Neutrality Pact did not impact those movements, neither did Richard Sorge in Japan, tellign Stalin the Japanese would not attack, as he did not trust that intel fully. I've read talks with Stalin in the historic archive i've worked in that indicated that he was always sure Japan stood no chance and that even if they attacked he could move the forces in western Siberia, as the poor infrstructure meant the Japanese would not reach that far even if they took some land and defeaded his Far Eastern forces. That was also what took him so long to move his own forces east to take Manchuria and Korea much later and slower then hoped as he was well aware of this limitations of warfare in the region. So no Stalin didn't care for Japan attacking as he would have simply given up land in the Far East, moved the divisions, beaten the Germans and then turned around, just as he did OTL.
 

James Ricker

MattII said:
No months for the Japanese to use Submarines to interdict US buildups. The most accessible route is between Sakhalin and Hokkaido, so you have to bring in enough firepower to keep the Japanese on Hokkaido suppressed.

No, but Japan has plenty of submarines capable of interdicting the route, so it's not all one way.
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Submarine warfare wasn't Japan's strong suit, from experience in the North Atlantic allies were very good at anti-submarine warfare.
Even at the end of the war japanese submarines were not going after merchant ships, they were still concentrating on sinking warships
 
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