Would a German invasion of Britain in WW1 been more plausible than in WW2?

First of all the Nore command had most of the king Edward vii predreadnoughts assigned to it through all of 1916. Initially 7 but that fell to 4 or 5 by December. A little slow to compete with destroyers but capable of massacaring any invasion convoy.


Then as to ships in the Reserve, there was two predreads in Portsmouth and one in Plymouth serving as accommodation ships but on 24 hour notice to be made ready to sail (although the crew quality would have been poor) through the majority of Plymouth.

Two different predreads served as a guardship (with reduced crew) in Queenstown (Cobh, Ireland) at different times in 1916. Add HIS Swiftsure that served as a convoy escort in the Atlantic.

Within a week the Royal Navy could have pulled together a small battlesquadron if they felt they needed it.

The Nore Command wasn't a combat command, the forces in its area; the Dover Patrol, the Harwich Force, the Southern Forces and the Patrol Forces were allocated to forces which obtained their orders from either the Admiralty or the Grand Fleet.

How would a force of poorly trained, undermanned pre-dreads, hastily drawn together in reaction to evidence of a concentration of German forces preparing for an invasion go? Given they are reacting to German moves would they be ready in time? Given their poor crewing and lack of training how effective would they be against KM regulars on the destroyers and light cruisers redeployed from the North Sea and Baltic?
 
The goal of the HSF was not to support a Sealion. If they could achieve parity they could at least put an end to the British blockade. If they could achieve superiority they could impose a surface blockade on Britain.

Any surface blockade of Britain would starve it quickly. There would be no need to invade.
 
One of the problems that Operation WWI Sealion faces is the same as the real Operation Sealion faced: Germany has a limited amount of resources with which to construct a war machine. They need to have an army that can beat both France and Russia, and a fleet that can defeat Britain. This means they need one of (if not the) best armies in the world, and the best (or at least very close to best) fleet in the world. Getting both of those is historically something that is incredibly difficult without having access to USA levels of manpower and resources, which Germany doesn't have. Admittedly it is less hard than in the interwar period, when Germany only had about 6 years to go from nothing to great power, but it's still not a difficulty that Germany is likely to overcome.
 
The Nore Command wasn't a combat command, the forces in its area; the Dover Patrol, the Harwich Force, the Southern Forces and the Patrol Forces were allocated to forces which obtained their orders from either the Admiralty or the Grand Fleet.

How would a force of poorly trained, undermanned pre-dreads, hastily drawn together in reaction to evidence of a concentration of German forces preparing for an invasion go? Given they are reacting to German moves would they be ready in time? Given their poor crewing and lack of training how effective would they be against KM regulars on the destroyers and light cruisers redeployed from the North Sea and Baltic?
They were never used as combat units because they were too slow to counter the light forces in the area.

If there's an invasion the German light forces will be anchored to the invasion convoy which will by necessity be slower than their own speed. This gives the predreadnoughts a speed advantage which can be used to force battle. As to how they do, well it depends on how the Germans react. If the Germans only have light forces in the area they need to win with light forces they need to launch a torpedo charge to the predreads. This means forming up in a formation and charging the ships. The predreads will be slaughtered, put 40 or 50 torpedoes in the water and enough will hit that the predreadnoughts force's back is broken and they will flee for harbour. Remember though torpedoes are short range weapons so the time taken will leave unguarded holes for the rest of the Royal Navy local forrces to attack the convoy. That isn't mentioning any losses that these lighter forces will suffer while making the attack.

The second option is that the predreads stand off at maximum range shooting with 12 inch guns with impunity into a concentration of ships in the invasion convoy. Poor accuracy will be compensated with the idea that if you miss one ship you will hit another.
 
I think any invasion would be on a narrow front via the shortest distance, given that I don't think its possible unless Germany holds the French coast down to Boulogne. So the crossing will be less than 30 miles and the light forces will create a defended zone rather than a convoy per se.

But this is all going a bit deep given the unlikelihood of such an invasion. I just think that with the power of the KM the naval balance isn't so bad that an invasion becomes unthinkable, that doesn't make it a goer by any means, merely that it can be given some proper thought in the right circumstances. The British planned to undertake a landing on the Flanders coast with barges carrying tanks, pushed by monitors, which is the main reason I think a German invasion on a small scale is possible.

 
A small scale British invasion has the advantage of up to 37 monitors with guns that are 9.2 inches or larger. A lack of artillery would not be a problem there.

Also a British invasion would not have to be supplied adinfinitum or as the intention was to land behind German lines, punch through and rejoin the British Army.
 
High Seas Fleet was a major force, Germany had lots of merchant ships including some very large liners. So yes technically better chance odds were against either.
 
I agree that, in the highly unlikely event of the HSF beating the RN decisively enough to make invasion possible, no invasion will be required.

In such a case, Britain will either sue for peace, or completely withdraw to defend the Home Islands (compelling France to give up swiftly), or else be devastated by interruption of her trade and food imports (HSF probably couldn't manage a total blockade, but wouldnt have to).

Only if Britain were suicidally and pointlessly stubborn would invasion be necessary.

The trick is to get the outnumbered HSF to beat the RN decisively, without itself suffering so much damage that capitalizing on her success becomes impossible.

If RN ships, or technology, or training or leadership were grossly inferior to the German, it would be possible. But while the RN had some issues, they were nowhere near defective enough in any area.

The alternative is for the "luck" to run powerfully and completely in the Germans' favor. Luck doesn't tend to work this way.
 
More plausible - Yes.

1914-1918 the Germans had a fleet that could contest (I don't say win or hold) command of the North Sea.
And, IIRC Germany had a large merchant marine in 1914. A preemptive invasion using these ships might have been possible. Does it end in disaster, yes.
 
It's dismissed here that Sealion would have been successful but would Germany have actually been more likely to succeed in an invasion of Britain in the first world war?

At no time in the OTL war could Germany have invaded Britain. The Royal Navy could maintain control of any sea area where the Germans could try to invade. An invasion coming from Germany would be spotted long before reaching Britain, giving British forces time to intercept the invasion and to set up defenses on the threatened coast. An invasion from Belgium would be severely resource constrained, and British light forces always dominated that part of the Channel against the modest forces the Germans could deploy from Ostend.

In an ATL: if Germany conquered France as in 1870... Then Germany no longer has to fight the French army, and controls the whole Continental side of the Channel to attack from. Supposing a major part of the High Seas Fleet could be redeployed to French ports; Britain would redeploy a matching portion of the Grand Fleet. But - if the Germans made a sudden attack, using lots of MTBs and U-boats, they might be able to defeat the Channel Fleet long enough for troop-carrying small craft to cross. IOW, Germany could succeed in invading. But after that... Any plausibility for SEELOWE lay in the extreme weakness of British forces after Dunkirk, due to losses of men and especially equipment - the "empty net", though it is also argued that by September the British had enough force to counter what the Germans might have landed. In WWI scenario, it's unlikely that Britain would be that vulnerable. Though to be sure, Britain did not have a mass army in 1914-1915. Still I think even a surprise invasion would be contained and defeated. For one thing, the British would have been able to evacuate a lot more men and materiel from France (including French troops), because there would be no Luftwaffe bombing the ships.
 
no time in the OTL war could Germany have invaded Britain. The Royal Navy could maintain control of any sea area where the Germans could try to invade. An invasion coming from Germany would be spotted long before reaching Britain, giving British forces time to intercept the invasion and to set up defenses on the threatened coast. An invasion from Belgium would be severely resource constrained, and British light forces always dominated that part of the Channel against the modest forces the Germans could deploy from Ostend.

If the atl begins with the capture of more channel real Estate these assumptions change. That doesn't make an invasion likely or likely to succeed, but it does alter the equation.
 

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I would add that the HSF would almost certainly be able to make an initial landing, as the raids on places such as Lowestoft and Hartlepool showed the fast ships could get there and back and avoid interception by major RN units.

The fast ships might get there and back but that in no way applies to the larger, slower merchantmen needed to be used as troop transports. This would reduce the speed of the fast ships and lay them open to interception as well. Also, the Lowestoft and Hartlepool raids were hardly massive military successes and it should be noted the damage (although not critical, still sufficient to force the Blucher to seek cover) wrought by Hartlepool's guns. A landing operation would dictate that ships would stay in range of the guns for far longer.

Room 40 a little later makes that far more difficult, but even then the Grand Fleet was a long way away and without prior warning I can see even the slow transports getting there from Bremerhaven & Wilhelmshaven, although what they'd do 12 hours later when Jellicoe heaves into view might make Tirpitz wince.

Die in large numbers.
 
In wargame terms, the Germans would have to roll sixes every single time, without fail. That just doesn't happen.
Off topic but I always read a wargame die roll comparisons and remember a particularly good game I had going of War Between the States. I had the Confederacy at my mercy for about two years, unable to stop me from doing what I wanted. Then...sixes like you would never believe. I lost 90% of the Union Army, damn near all of the Navy, and the Confederates took New York City (where the map board ended-really, there was nothing to stop them from invading Canada), in eight weeks.

Damned sixes!
 
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