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So I have the following scenario in mind:

Franz Ferdinand survives Sarajevo - not that hard to do - and lives to take the throne. Franz Joseph dies on scedul. The Emperor and Hungaries relationship is rapidly deteroitating till it completly breaks down in about mid 1917. Reasons could be many from FF refusing to get himself crowned to Ausgleich problems etc. Franz Ferdinand decides to use the army. Most here agree that this would be a fairly simple kuk victory over Honved and after this FF could start to really reform the Empire.

However how would the rest of the world react to this? If i only take the time that the fighting lasts it takes out the kuk for a good time and after that a big part of Hungary needs to be occupied.

I assume WWI hasnt broken out before this. Russia should be considerably stronger at this point. IRC Germany and Brittain was about to conclude an agreement about the Baghdad railway in 1914 so lets say they managed to arrange that. This would help british-german relations if Gerany doesnt want to pass a new naval build law once again increasing its navy. Seeing how the social democrats were the strongest in the reichtag in 1914 I assume Germany didnt manage that.

So three years passed compared to OTL before the war. Germany isnt considerably stronger as it had to deal mostly with inside politics because of the soc dems. Austria is in a civil war and isnt really able to contibute to a big war at the moment. I dont know enough about France to really guess. Russia is much stronger. We also have to consider Serbia, which had three years to really integrate Macedonia and was pretty sure of himself - Im not entirely sure if they dont attack Austria at this point.

However do you think France would use this opportunity to try to get back Alsaice? How would Russia react? Would Russia attach Austria-Hungary? Would they support a serb attach on Austria only stepping in if Austria wins? That way they might get away without facing Germany?

Any other idea what may happen in the scenario above?
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